Let's Talk About Baltimore (AFC Championship)

[SHOWTIME]

Headed back to the AFC Championship Game!!!! Discuss.

[PurpleOrange]

Originally Posted by Pasta Little Brioni

Some piece of shit backup destroyed you from Cleveland and you got bludgeoned over and over so ya you are soft. How many games has Lamar missed? INCLUDING a playoff game he chose not risking a contract over playing a game he could have.

You also want KC to pound with Pistachio. Please do, we'll crack him like a nut!
Ask Houston how well running the football worked for them? Yes yes I already know you will say Houston sux so you don't need to mention it.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Pasta Little Brioni

You are going to see a lot of cover 0. A shit Houston defense had Lamar in hell for awhile with it and they didn't have this secondary behind it

I know Spags gets nuts in the playoffs and yeah, i think conventional wisdom is we'll see a lot of Cover 0.

Problem I have with Cover 0 against a QB who I don't trust to make a good throw downfield is the inevitable PI flag that we'll get hit with on the road. The corners will play physical and Lamar will toss a YOLO ball out there. If there's contact at all downfield, they're gonna throw the flag. If I'm Harbaugh, my hot for a cover zero would absolute have a vert as the first read. Whoever Williams/Watson are on out wide, just huck it out there and hope you draw the flag.

I don't love Cover 0 in this game. A lot of people seem to and many of them are quite well informed. I just think there's a ton of penalty risk in it.

[RunKC]

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

I agree with that. There will be 0 and 2-high looks, just don't think they do much 1-high.

Disagree. I see a similar gameplan as last week. Cover 2 with both safeties between the hashes to put more defense on the TE. Make Lamar play QB and have extended drives without making a mistake while forcing him into 3rd and long.

I think Spags will pick and choose his blitzes at the right time. We want Lamar to get in those 3rd and long plays bc he isn't gonna make those tight throws that Josh Allen did last week.

[O.city]

Cover 2 leaves you a light box. I doubt we see that.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by smithandrew051

I’d defer in this one.

I think Lamar comes out a little too excited and takes a bit to settle down.

The Chiefs can probably steal a quick 3 and out.

Maybe - but then you'd need 2 quick three and outs to get that 2-score lead.

Again, I think I agree with you because I don't think we NEED to throw Jackson off his game to win. We just need to play ours. And when you break trends because of your opponent, that works out poorly as often as it doesn't.

[Mecca]

Flood the middle and make Lamar go outside the numbers, that's the defense.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

It it just far easier to throw the ball to RBs out of the backfield than I realize or have we simply sucked at defending that for 25 years? Do we maybe NOT suck at defending it now and it's Bootleg PTSD?

Crazy to me that we constantly get gashed by the same thing. Then again, my memory is that the Ravens system doesn't really throw to the RBs very much. Gotta figure they'll go to the TEs and Flowers from the slot a lot on play fakes as a proxy for those RB throws.

The Bill's entire offense the last half of the season had been swing passes to the RB and Allen running the ball mixing in some running with Cook. Throw in a few TE passes and a few deep shots to the WR here and there.

It was a don't let Allen turn it over offense. It worked for most of those games but its a tedious way to score points.

[Mecca]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

The Bill's entire offense the last half of the season had been swing passes to the RB and Allen running the ball mixing in some running with Cook. Throw in a few TE passes and a few deep shots to the WR here and there.

It was a don't let Allen turn it over offense. It worked for most of those games but its a tedious way to score points.

Nerfing your best player and honestly taking away what makes him dangerous.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by O.city

Cover 2 leaves you a light box. I doubt we see that.

Yeah, if we're showing a lot of 2-high looks, they'll stay in 12 and pound us. Granted, even in 2-high, Reid's coming downhill pretty hard so a 2-high look isn't exactly playing it with Ronnie Parker and Tyran Mathieu out there. But still, I'd rather have that 8th guy in the box. Especially since Andrews isn't really a HR hitter so Reid shouldn't get dusted by him even if he starts down low.

Likely as a seam stretcher could actually **** that up a bit, though.

[PurpleOrange]

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

Sounds perfect. Field will still be wet though and that may matter just as much.

Defense, in the passing game at least, will be more challenging.

Perhaps, the field drains pretty well and held up well after last weeks game with the cold and snow. So with any luck it's not too much of an impact. Would prefer to see these two teams be able to give it their best shot regardless of weather and field conditions.

[carcosa]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I know Spags gets nuts in the playoffs and yeah, i think conventional wisdom is we'll see a lot of Cover 0.

Problem I have with Cover 0 against a QB who I don't trust to make a good throw downfield is the inevitable PI flag that we'll get hit with on the road. The corners will play physical and Lamar will toss a YOLO ball out there. If there's contact at all downfield, they're gonna throw the flag. If I'm Harbaugh, my hot for a cover zero would absolute have a vert as the first read. Whoever Williams/Watson are on out wide, just huck it out there and hope you draw the flag.

I don't love Cover 0 in this game. A lot of people seem to and many of them are quite well informed. I just think there's a ton of penalty risk in it.

The good news there is that this particular ref crew seems immune to home cooking.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by wachashi

I think 20-21 points could very well win this game. Two elite defenses. Both sides have every incentive to try and run the ball. Explosive plays could be very rare.

If it's a clean game from both sides with no really costly turnovers, I think 21 points does it.

We can analyze this thing to death but really with as close as these 2 teams are talent and match up wise its simply going to come down to who makes the fewest dumb mistakes with penalties and turnovers.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Mecca

Flood the middle and make Lamar go outside the numbers, that's the defense.

Another point for the single-high looks. It would give Reid more freedom to patrol that intermediate middle and do exactly what you're saying. Moreover, I figure it would tempt the hell out of Football Savant, Lamar Jackson.

You know he's gonna wanna hit a post-corner on a 46 look. Does OBJ have the gas for it? Does flowers have the catch radius for it? He's gonna take a shot and if he hangs it up a little, that's a pick waiting to happen.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

2-high is perfectly fine to defend the run with especially against an offense like this, it lets the safeties run the allies, protect the edges, and not get caught in trash too much. Not saying they will live in it. None of it may matter with all the rotating they do pre-snap.

[Pasta Little Brioni]

Originally Posted by PurpleOrange

You also want KC to pound with Pistachio. Please do, we'll crack him like a nut!
Ask Houston how well running the football worked for them? Yes yes I already know you will say Houston sux so you don't need to mention it.

You realize Houston has zero running game right

Funny how Buffalo can actually run the ball after ditching Singletary