***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by TLO

How were the overall numbers compared to yesterday?

Worldmeters had 2300 something it was 2400 something day before I think.

[Mr_Tomahawk]

I believe daily new cases and deaths were down today.

And it’s not Sunday....

[LiveSteam]

Some of you wont like this.

Turkey's Ministry of Health says the relatively low death toll is thanks to treatment protocols in the country, which involve two existing drugs — the controversial anti-malaria drug hydroxychloroquine touted by President Trump, and Japanese antiviral favipiravir.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbs...ine-treatment/

[Titty Meat]

Hamas I have a dumb question for you and I debated a friend who's a UCSF med school grade.

If a person who eats healthier and exercises 30 minutes a day are they less likely to die from this virus?

My uneducated thinking on this is 1. Most people who die from this already have underlying conditions which obesity contributes to that 2. The mortality rate is rather low so even if you save a few thousands lives by people getting into better shape you've done your job 3. You are much more likely to atleast incorporate some fruits and vegetables into your diet and walk a few miles a week and lose 15-20 pounds by November then there is for a vaccine to be figured out by then.

I get its simplistic thinking and not a "cure" but I havent seen this mentioned on a national, state or local level. Just seems like something that might help during a time when people are losing their shit. What better motivation?

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by petegz28

ICU Director from Cedars-Sinai Tarzana. Yes this was from Glen Beck's show but it is not political other than about 20 seconds of talk about the 2 CA doctors having their video removed from Youtube. Talks about suppressing the immune system to save people....

Thank you for sharing that was really informative at least was for me. Gives me some hope that we are slowly learning how to fight it and treat it.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by LiveSteam

Some of you wont like this.

Turkey's Ministry of Health says the relatively low death toll is thanks to treatment protocols in the country, which involve two existing drugs — the controversial anti-malaria drug hydroxychloroquine touted by President Trump, and Japanese antiviral favipiravir.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbs...ine-treatment/

I don’t know if I trust anything coming out if Turkey, maybe that is just me.

[O.city]

Favipiravitir had good grades iirc coming out of China early in this. It’s Japanese so if China is saying it was effective you know it mist have been

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by LiveSteam

Some of you wont like this.

Turkey's Ministry of Health says the relatively low death toll is thanks to treatment protocols in the country, which involve two existing drugs — the controversial anti-malaria drug hydroxychloroquine touted by President Trump, and Japanese antiviral favipiravir.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbs...ine-treatment/

Anyone who is rooting for it to fail are idiots. I'm very skeptical of it, but by all means, if it works, let's see some well-researched proof of it.

[IowaHawkeyeChief]

Originally Posted by BWillie

Remember a week and a half ago where people were citing models the government was looking at saying they thought we should only see 60k deaths?

Well, we are over 61,100 as of today. With states doing a phase 1 reopening, expect this number to continue to rise. The weather & continued slight social distancing in these places will help mitigate it, as well as the leveling off in NY but I would expect to see a pretty constant new cases and death rates regardless.

Remember 6 weeks ago when if we didn't mitigate we would have 2.2 million deaths and if we did we would still have hundreds of thousands, overwhelm the hospitals and have to choose who received a ventilator...

6 weeks later and 30 million unemployed.


GTFO

[Titty Meat]

Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief

Remember 6 weeks ago when if we didn't mitigate we would have 2.2 million deaths and if we did we would still have hundreds of thousands, overwhelm the hospitals and have to choose who received a ventilator...

6 weeks later and 30 million unemployed.


GTFO

Yeah because no other countries economy went to shit during this and we would prosper with hundreds of thousands dying and getting sick.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by Titty Meat

Hamas I have a dumb question for you and I debated a friend who's a UCSF med school grade.

If a person who eats healthier and exercises 30 minutes a day are they less likely to die from this virus?

My uneducated thinking on this is 1. Most people who die from this already have underlying conditions which obesity contributes to that 2. The mortality rate is rather low so even if you save a few thousands lives by people getting into better shape you've done your job 3. You are much more likely to atleast incorporate some fruits and vegetables into your diet and walk a few miles a week and lose 15-20 pounds by November then there is for a vaccine to be figured out by then.

I get its simplistic thinking and not a "cure" but I havent seen this mentioned on a national, state or local level. Just seems like something that might help during a time when people are losing their shit. What better motivation?

It wouldn't hurt; the extent to which it would help over a short period is likely unknowable, but probably very small for the individual while helpful for the population. The thing to remember is that most of our major killers do so slowly. They call hypertension the silent killer because you can do tremendous damage while asymptomatic. You aren't going to begin experiencing angina from clogged coronary arteries until you have significant disease, and many people don't get diagnosed with Type II Diabetes until they have really bad A1c levels.

Hypertension results in end organ damage to the heart, kidneys, and cerebral vasculature, but it's a pretty slow process. Coronary artery disease can be stabilized, and plaques can stabilize and even lessen, but it takes a fair amount of time, and Type II Diabetes wreaks havoc all over the body (the biggest issue is a substantially increased cardiovascular risk).

It might be more helpful to think of it as a continuum of disease rather than an on/off switch. Having no comorbidities is better than having controlled disease states, which are better than uncontrolled disease states. I would hazard a guess that those whose chronic diseases are fairly well-controlled don't have significantly increased mortality risks from COVID.

For example: If I have two consecutive BPs over 140/90, I can be diagnosed as having hypertension. But if I watch my diet (DASH is a good one) and exercise, and I get down to 120/80, I still technically have hypertension, but it's controlled (this is a little more complex with some of the newer guidelines released in 2018, but we'll skip over that). Or, let's say that in addition to diet and exercise, I take a small dose of a thiazide diuretic and that controls my BP. Another person has a BP of 150/100 and they start them on medical management, but it doesn't control it, so they add another drug and that gets them to 120/80. They're controlled but the underlying disease is more severe. The next person has a high BP and is prescribed agents that can control it, but they aren't adherent, so sometimes it's within goal and other times it's far above. And then there's the guy that it is 170/110, has resistant hypertension, and eats like shit.

The first person is in better shape than the second, than the third, and so on. But how much better are they off in the short term?

Over the course of a year, there isn't likely to be a meaningful difference in mortality for any of the people I mentioned, except maybe the last one (and even then, you'd be surprised how small the one year risk is). Over several years, that risk begins to add up, though.

However, if you extrapolate that over a large population you begin to see benefits from even small shifts in the numbers, and there's nothing about your idea that would be harmful. It's all upside. That's why every clinician always starts with lifestyle modification. An ounce of prevention...

To provide an analogy: a lot of hospitals will always give patients normal saline to rehydrate them--it's cheap, plentiful, and the side effects are pretty low. However, there is a small, but notable risk of acute kidney injury from giving normal saline instead of giving Lactated Ringers. The overall risk to the individual is miniscule, but the population benefits are worth it because treating acute kidney injury is expensive.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by LiveSteam

Some of you wont like this.

Turkey's Ministry of Health says the relatively low death toll is thanks to treatment protocols in the country, which involve two existing drugs — the controversial anti-malaria drug hydroxychloroquine touted by President Trump, and Japanese antiviral favipiravir.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbs...ine-treatment/

Turan said the combination of drugs appeared to "delay or eliminate the need for intensive care for patients." But it's important to note that Turkey's use of the drug is not a clinically controlled trial; there's no control group of patients not given the medication to compare the results against.

....

While Turkey's relatively low test rate might suggest even more impressive mortality figures, there are also concerns that the official death toll for the country — the other half of the mortality equation — could be a significant underestimate.

The Turkish Medical Association, the country's largest doctors' union, has criticized the government for not using broader diagnostic criteria approved by the World Health Organization in its counting of COVID-19 deaths, saying it could be obscuring the "real dimensions of the problem."


Read your own links.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Mr_Tomahawk

I believe daily new cases and deaths were down today.

And it’s not Sunday....

Actually cases were up

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Monticore

Worldmeters had 2300 something it was 2400 something day before I think.

New cases today were 28k

[Titty Meat]

I thought KCs mayor did a great job explaining why and how KCs new cases are down to about 72ish this week. Social distancing has worked. The first stimulus didnt go fair enough we need a 2nd one that specifically targets small business and can buy a year or so to get their house in order.

With that said get more testing and hopefully some medical breakthroughs by fall cities like KC will be kicking ass vs this thing.