***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by petegz28

I still think there is a argument to be made about going the way of Sweden. Yes, they are worse than us but on an overall basis from a longer term perspective, are they really?

I wish we knew. It all comes down to the hypothesis that herd immunity is really possible without a vaccine (and without catastrophic death counts). If it's true, they're ahead of the game. If it's not, they're going to lose far more people than their neighbors.

We'll know someday, but it'll likely be months if not years.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Monticore

The last place i would want to be if i had medical issues unless they were urgent is a hospital with an outbreak, or the last place you want to expose covid to is also a hospital, and with known asymptomatic spread it pretty tricky.

That's easy to say if you aren't needing a chemo treatment or are otherwise living in pain.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by DaFace

I wish we knew. It all comes down to the hypothesis that herd immunity is really possible without a vaccine (and without catastrophic death counts). If it's true, they're ahead of the game. If it's not, they're going to lose far more people than their neighbors.

We'll know someday, but it'll likely be months if not years.

I think we are going to have to go that route at some point.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by petegz28

I cannot believe we didn't open up the hospitals and doctor's offices once we saw there wasn't going to be this apocalyptic scene in our ER's. That is a complete and total failure on the part of our governors.

It's chicken or egg. If you open up and hospitals and such then a spike hits youre in trouble. But you can't wait forever

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by petegz28

That's easy to say if you aren't needing a chemo treatment or are otherwise living in pain.

I know but trust me patients are just not wanting to come especially cancer patients, when they come in you can see the fear.

Our ER has been slow because all the fever/ colds/2 years of knee pain/all the stupid shit people come to ER for are not coming and now they actually just treat true emergencies. There is also less traumas from lack of team sports/bar fights etc..

For some reason our cases of opiod overdoses has gone down as well, for that i have no reason for.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DaFace

I wish we knew. It all comes down to the hypothesis that herd immunity is really possible without a vaccine (and without catastrophic death counts). If it's true, they're ahead of the game. If it's not, they're going to lose far more people than their neighbors.

We'll know someday, but it'll likely be months if not years.

I just don't think we had a good national message about what the point of it all was. Or people just didn't want to hear it.

Buy time. We've got good results from remdisivir so we have something in the tool kit. There will be more coming out all the time.

[TLO]

Still waiting to see the daily update from Triumph numbers to get a feel for what the final tally of asymptomatic cases are going to be. There will be a small number trickling in later this week but we should have a solid idea by the end of today.

Our hospital also took someone off their inpatient list today. We're down to 2. Unsure if they had a successful recovery or... yeah.

[O.city]

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....27.20081893v1

DaFace, here's the paper i read on the estimation of herd immunity etc.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by O.city

Maybe.

I think the elephant in the room here is that while we flattened the curve, essentially you've set this up as a slow burn for a longer period of time. Which...is essentially what flattening the curve is. Just hope the hospitals don't over whelm and people take precautions.

Yep and now with state’s re opening we are going to see an increase.

[O.city]

Monticore you might find this interesting seeing as you're in the health field.

A Dutch study showed 13.884 people infected, 3% required hospitalisation, 9 people died, all over 45 yo and 6 had confirmed underlying health problems. so 0.03% death rate.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

Yep and now with state’s re opening we are going to see an increase.

They think we passed the peak and they say the Rt is below 1. I don't know that the rural spikes will happen, people are so spread out. But cities? **** i dunno.

[Bowser]

Originally Posted by DaFace

I wish we knew. It all comes down to the hypothesis that herd immunity is really possible without a vaccine (and without catastrophic death counts). If it's true, they're ahead of the game. If it's not, they're going to lose far more people than their neighbors.

We'll know someday, but it'll likely be months if not years.

We're just not going to wait this thing out, and I have my doubts on some vaccine being available in 18-24 months. We need to open it up. It's going to hurt, but we need to push through it and get the country spinning again.

[BigCatDaddy]

Talking about starting youth baseball practices here next month. I see the light.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by The PMII Hypothesis

My issue with the lockdown is it wasn’t nearly strict enough to accomplish what we set out to do, or we had the wrong goals. The former lockdown needed to be paired with strict strict regulations about who could go out, and then mass testing for essential employees as well as as contact tracing. Combine that with 10 weeks of lockdown and zero air travel you can/could’ve shut this down. The way we locked down we only slowed the virus spreading, but we slowed it too much, you need to slow it to just below what hospitals can handle or this goes on forever and the cure is worse than the disease. Opening back up is the right thing as long as masks are worn and we use true social distancing and more testing and contact tracing. Yes we will see more cases, but we can limit hot spots to not overwhelm health care. This will be the best way forward at this point. My fear is people go wild and every city turns into New York in 6 weeks. Now is more important than ever to be smart with your interactions.

Definitely should have done the hard lock down and we would have by now bended the curve.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by O.city

Monticore you might find this interesting seeing as you're in the health field.

A Dutch study showed 13.884 people infected, 3% required hospitalisation, 9 people died, all over 45 yo and 6 had confirmed underlying health problems. so 0.03% death rate.

antibody testing?