How good are the Chiefs chances at the AFC's #1 seed?

[MMXcalibur]

Updated: 12/19

Teams that actually matter in this conversation:

Kansas City (10-4) (vs PIT, at CIN, at DEN)

New England (9-5) (vs BUF, vs JAC, at MIA)

Tennessee (9-5) (vs SF, vs MIA, at HOU)

Baltimore (8-5) (vs GB, at CIN, vs LAR, vs PIT)

Buffalo (8-6) (at NE, vs ATL, vs NYJ)

Indianapolis (8-6) (at ARI, vs LV, at JAC)

LA Chargers (8-6) (at HOU, vs DEN, at LV)

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Being 1 game back with six games to play seems incredibly generous given our shitty tiebreaker situation. I'll put our odds at 99.9999999%

[Stryker]

It would be lovely if MIA beats NE AGAIN to propel us like 2 years ago!

[stevegroganfan]

Originally Posted by Stryker

It would be lovely if MIA beats NE AGAIN to propel us like 2 years ago!

As a Patriots fan, I don't want that to happen but it could happen. Miami is playing better.

Realistically speaking I believe Chiefs are losing at least one more and the Patriots will be losing at least one more.

12-5 in a year like this could get the number 1 seed. More teams are going to be fighting for playoff spots until the bitter end so that is going to make it hard for any AFC #1 seed contender to go undefeated the rest of the way.

[scho63]

HEY OP, UPDATE YOUR SHIT!

[OnTheWarpath15]

We're quick to shit on other teams, but refuse to look in the mirror and realize you could make a lot of the same critiques about our own team.

Struggled against the Rodgers-less Packers.
Struggled against the shitty Giants missing a ton of players.
Struggled against the Cowboys missing an All Pro OT and two studs at WR.

But we blew out the Raiders, so everything is fine?

I wouldn't be shocked to run the table, but I also wouldn't be surprised to lose to anyone we have left on the schedule.

[Pants]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath15

We're quick to shit on other teams, but refuse to look in the mirror and realize you could make a lot of the same critiques about our own team.

Struggled against the Rodgers-less Packers.
Struggled against the shitty Giants missing a ton of players.
Struggled against the Cowboys missing an All Pro OT and two studs at WR.

But we blew out the Raiders, so everything is fine?

I wouldn't be shocked to run the table, but I also wouldn't be surprised to lose to anyone we have left on the schedule.

Yup. Exactly.

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath15

We're quick to shit on other teams, but refuse to look in the mirror and realize you could make a lot of the same critiques about our own team.

Struggled against the Rodgers-less Packers.
Struggled against the shitty Giants missing a ton of players.
Struggled against the Cowboys missing an All Pro OT and two studs at WR.

But we blew out the Raiders, so everything is fine?

I wouldn't be shocked to run the table, but I also wouldn't be surprised to lose to anyone we have left on the schedule.

Yeah, the current narrative seems to be the Chiefs' defense has been great lately while also saying a team like the Patriots has only beaten two teams all season with a winning record. Yet, I believe the Chiefs have only beat three teams with winning records, and all three missing key offensive players including Aaron freakin Rodgers.

I'm a lot more optimistic overall than a few weeks ago, mostly because their schedule softens up so much from the first 6 weeks of the season.... many people are stuck in the early 90s with the "defense wins championships' mentality, so it's a lot easier to ignore the struggling offense when the defense is playing well (even against shit or broken teams) than ignore defense when the offense is at its best.

[Simply Red]

Originally Posted by Rasputin

ask Pete if we are going sniff the playoffs

Pete,

Are we going to sniff the playoffs?

Ty

[mr. tegu]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath15

We're quick to shit on other teams, but refuse to look in the mirror and realize you could make a lot of the same critiques about our own team.

Struggled against the Rodgers-less Packers.
Struggled against the shitty Giants missing a ton of players.
Struggled against the Cowboys missing an All Pro OT and two studs at WR.

But we blew out the Raiders, so everything is fine?

I wouldn't be shocked to run the table, but I also wouldn't be surprised to lose to anyone we have left on the schedule.

The difference is that the Chiefs are a known commodity with an established history of being the best team in the league for three seasons with little change having occurred. None of the other teams are close to that so if starting from square one with a 5-6 game season as they all basically are, the Chiefs get the edge.

[staylor26]

Originally Posted by mr. tegu

The difference is that the Chiefs are a known commodity with an established history of being the best team in the league for three seasons with little change having occurred. None of the other teams are close to that so if starting from square one with a 5-6 game season as they all basically are, the Chiefs get the edge.

The fact that this needs to be explained is hilarious.

[MahomesMagic]

Originally Posted by staylor26

The fact that this needs to be explained is hilarious.

Yup. Let's put it this way. If our offense starts firing correctly and our defense remains tough we are the obvious AFC favorite.

Even now I believe Vegas has us 1st in the AFC for going to the Super Bowl.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+550): With Vita Vea (knee) active, the Bucs defensive front was up to the challenge against league-leading rusher Jonathan Taylor and the Colts. Tampa turned in a total team win with Tom Brady managing the game, and the Bucs passing offense should only improve when Antonio Brown (ankle) gets back and several other key players get healthy.

Kansas City Chiefs (+700): The Chiefs won four straight games headed into a bye with their defense yielding just 11.3 PPG against some dangerous opponents. Patrick Mahomes has committed 14 turnovers during a rough season for a KC offense that is bound to turn the corner eventually.

Buffalo Bills (+800): The Bills have alternated between three bad losses and three impressive wins heading into a crucial MNF matchup with the first-place Patriots. Their defense takes a major hit without elite CB Tre’Davious White (ACL) the rest of the way.

Green Bay Packers (+800): While Aaron Rodgers has been able to battle through a broken toe and silence his critics with elite play in recent weeks, it’s fair to wonder how his lack of mobility might impact Green Bay’s offense down the stretch.

Arizona Cardinals (+900): The Cardinals continued to prove that they’re a complete team by going 2-1 without Kyler Murray (ankle) and DeAndre Hopkins (hamstring) heading into their bye week. They have an easy draw at Chicago next week before hosting the Rams.

New England Patriots (+1100): Facing another shorthanded opponent, the Patriots dominated the Titans for a sixth straight win. Matthew Judon leads a fierce front seven with J.C. Jackson and Jalen Mills shutting down the back end. If Mac Jones plays mistake-free football, New England should continue to be a force.

Dallas Cowboys (+1300): With LT Tyron Smith (ankle) back in the lineup, the Cowboys hung 33 points at home, but Dan Quinn’s defense turned in one of its worst performances in a narrow loss to the Raiders. Amari Cooper (COVID) is expected to return on Thursday night against the Saints but the Cowboys are dealing with another COVID outbreak.

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by staylor26

The fact that this needs to be explained is hilarious.

Meh, this place is always one extreme or the other and people tend to pump the brakes a bit on it. People were in full panic mode before they even started playing that poorly and now it's smooth sailing with only one "well oiled machine" game in the win streak, acting like nothing ever happened.

The reality is of course in the middle somewhere and not solely about Ws and Ls. If everything was back to normal, the offense would have looked far, far, far better against NYG, far better against the Packers, and better against the Cowboys.

It's not a black and white, the Chiefs have lost all benefit of the doubt, but just pumping the brakes a bit on acting like the defense that was putrid just weeks ago is now amazing because they're playing the likes of Jordan Love and a Cowboys team without their top two receivers (and yes, they are healthy and playing better, "somewhere in between") or that the offense is completely back to normal and it was only the turnovers (and yes, playing far better than October).

Slow to panic, slow to unyielding optimism.

[arrwheader]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

Yup. Let's put it this way. If our offense starts firing correctly and our defense remains tough we are the obvious AFC favorite.

Even now I believe Vegas has us 1st in the AFC for going to the Super Bowl.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+550): With Vita Vea (knee) active, the Bucs defensive front was up to the challenge against league-leading rusher Jonathan Taylor and the Colts. Tampa turned in a total team win with Tom Brady managing the game, and the Bucs passing offense should only improve when Antonio Brown (ankle) gets back and several other key players get healthy.

Kansas City Chiefs (+700): The Chiefs won four straight games headed into a bye with their defense yielding just 11.3 PPG against some dangerous opponents. Patrick Mahomes has committed 14 turnovers during a rough season for a KC offense that is bound to turn the corner eventually.

Buffalo Bills (+800): The Bills have alternated between three bad losses and three impressive wins heading into a crucial MNF matchup with the first-place Patriots. Their defense takes a major hit without elite CB Tre’Davious White (ACL) the rest of the way.

Green Bay Packers (+800): While Aaron Rodgers has been able to battle through a broken toe and silence his critics with elite play in recent weeks, it’s fair to wonder how his lack of mobility might impact Green Bay’s offense down the stretch.

Arizona Cardinals (+900): The Cardinals continued to prove that they’re a complete team by going 2-1 without Kyler Murray (ankle) and DeAndre Hopkins (hamstring) heading into their bye week. They have an easy draw at Chicago next week before hosting the Rams.

New England Patriots (+1100): Facing another shorthanded opponent, the Patriots dominated the Titans for a sixth straight win. Matthew Judon leads a fierce front seven with J.C. Jackson and Jalen Mills shutting down the back end. If Mac Jones plays mistake-free football, New England should continue to be a force.

Dallas Cowboys (+1300): With LT Tyron Smith (ankle) back in the lineup, the Cowboys hung 33 points at home, but Dan Quinn’s defense turned in one of its worst performances in a narrow loss to the Raiders. Amari Cooper (COVID) is expected to return on Thursday night against the Saints but the Cowboys are dealing with another COVID outbreak.

Sigh....

Not to turn the discussion into Brady hate but

It is inevitable isn't it that TB is going to be back in the SB and MOAR BRADY AND GRONK.

FML

Would love to beat them in a rematch but would rather honestly never play Tom Brady in a game again. He is too lucky and gets favored on top of his talent makes it unfair.

[OnTheWarpath15]

Originally Posted by Bearcat

Meh, this place is always one extreme or the other and people tend to pump the brakes a bit on it. People were in full panic mode before they even started playing that poorly and now it's smooth sailing with only one "well oiled machine" game in the win streak, acting like nothing ever happened.

The reality is of course in the middle somewhere and not solely about Ws and Ls. If everything was back to normal, the offense would have looked far, far, far better against NYG, far better against the Packers, and better against the Cowboys.

It's not a black and white, the Chiefs have lost all benefit of the doubt, but just pumping the brakes a bit on acting like the defense that was putrid just weeks ago is now amazing because they're playing the likes of Jordan Love and a Cowboys team without their top two receivers (and yes, they are healthy and playing better, "somewhere in between") or that the offense is completely back to normal and it was only the turnovers (and yes, playing far better than October).

Slow to panic, slow to unyielding optimism.

This.

[Red Dawg]

Defense is getting better and has played really well but the offense has been shit for weeks now. Throw out the Raiders game and we have been shit against two shit teamsand one good one. We should have demolished the Packers and the Cowboys and the Giants and we couldn't because we didn't score much.

The offense keeps me from totally buying in to us winning anything but the year has been nuts so we are still in it at the moment.

[MahomesMagic]

Originally Posted by arrwheader

Sigh....

Not to turn the discussion into Brady hate but

It is inevitable isn't it that TB is going to be back in the SB and MOAR BRADY AND GRONK.

FML

Would love to beat them in a rematch but would rather honestly never play Tom Brady in a game again. He is too lucky and gets favored on top of his talent makes it unfair.

I don't think Tampa is inevitable. Sure, they are a favorite. But certain teams pose problems for Tampa. It all comes down to the final bracket. I agree I don't want to see Tampa if we go back because the refs will be in my mind (even if there is nothing there I can't unsee what I saw last year).