***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[limested]

Originally Posted by Titty Meat

wonder what the spin from those people will be when the economy doesnt magically bounce back and theres a relapse with the virus

That the damage was already done by making bad decisions and shutting down the first time.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by Donger

Employees violated the stay at home order, as in they were symptomatic and went to work anyway?

It's not clear to me what the violation was, but it reads more like it's an issue with maintaining distances, face coverings, etc.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

We are still going to have many more deaths according to everyone.

We are going too. The question is how any and how fast? The problem I have is it just feels like people keep changing the end game target. We wanted increased testing and we knew that would raise the number of cases but also shrink the CFR. We extrapolate multiple times a week how many people "really" have this which increases the number of cases and shrinks the CFR. We are seeing a very significant difference between asymptomatic and symptomatic people and we get scared that the asymptomatic MAY get symptomatic as well as spread the disease. We see clustered areas inflate the case counts such as nursing homes, meat plants and prisons and project that to be the same as everywhere else.

In the end it has gone from flattening the curve to prevent our hospitals from being overrun to slowing the spread to now I guess we can't go outside until it is all gone?


To me it just seems like we are spinning our wheels and suffering paralysis by analysis.

Too many people are looking at things strictly from a medical perspective.
Too many people are looking at things strictly from an economic perspective.

Neither is going to get exactly what they want and both are going to cause the other some degree of harm.

[ChiliConCarnage]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

Who is advocating for no mitigation? Here you are arguing a point nobody has made again. Sweden did mitigation.

Sorry for the thumbs down. Wasnt due to your post, was just trying to scroll the iPad and finger touched it apparently

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

Who is advocating for no mitigation? Here you are arguing a point nobody has made again. Sweden did mitigation.

Some people did early on. I think you were one of them.

Anyway, yes Sweden has enacted some restrictions. But not as robust as we have.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by Donger

Some people did early on. I think you were one of them.

Anyway, yes Sweden has enacted some restrictions. But not as robust as we have.

What anyone advocated for 6 weeks ago has no bearing on what I said today or this conversation concerning Sweden's approach vs ours but thanks for playing.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Donger

Some people did early on. I think you were one of them.

Anyway, yes Sweden has enacted some restrictions. But not as robust as we have.

And the difference between us and them is likely to be largely in their favor in the long run.

[IowaHawkeyeChief]

Originally Posted by limested

I think if we open up and it starts exploding again it will destroy the economy worse than it already has.

Trying to get people back to work has nothing to do with what is best and getting back to normal. It is all about greed and getting people off unemployment.

It's a balance, and we are unfortunately seeing the other side... 30,000,000 unemployed and growing, can't keep printing money after this first wave...
Suicides prevention calls, domestic violence calls up significantly, and child welfare and abuse cases down substantially(not good as they aren't being observed by others). This is just the toll on Americans. The depression continued isolation would bring to America and to the World would be devestating to 100's of millions around the world, particularly those in developing nations.

[O.city]

It didn’t have to be that way though. If we’d have had our shit together and tested and traced early we could have been better off

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by petegz28

We are going too. The question is how any and how fast? The problem I have is it just feels like people keep changing the end game target. We wanted increased testing and we knew that would raise the number of cases but also shrink the CFR. We extrapolate multiple times a week how many people "really" have this which increases the number of cases and shrinks the CFR. We are seeing a very significant difference between asymptomatic and symptomatic people and we get scared that the asymptomatic MAY get symptomatic as well as spread the disease. We see clustered areas inflate the case counts such as nursing homes, meat plants and prisons and project that to be the same as everywhere else.

In the end it has gone from flattening the curve to prevent our hospitals from being overrun to slowing the spread to now I guess we can't go outside until it is all gone?


To me it just seems like we are spinning our wheels and suffering paralysis by analysis.

Too many people are looking at things strictly from a medical perspective.
Too many people are looking at things strictly from an economic perspective.

Neither is going to get exactly what they want and both are going to cause the other some degree of harm.

To me, the goal was always to get the spread under control, which means a steady decline in cases. Even the official guidance from the feds says that it should be seen over 14 days.

We just aren't seeing it yet, which is where I start to get concerned again.

[stevieray]

Originally Posted by Mecca

Everytime someone posts something like that, all I can think of is, you know the virus isn't like say a military opponent, standing up and saying stuff like that doesn't make you noble or patriotic.

Being noble and patriotic has nothing to do with it.

Life HAS to move forward, and it will., regardless if you want to spend you life in fear.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by stevieray

Being noble and patriotic has nothing to do with it.

Life HAS to move forward, and it will., regardless if you want to spend you life in fear.

Well, except for all the dead people.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

What anyone advocated for 6 weeks ago has no bearing on what I said today or this conversation concerning Sweden's approach vs ours but thanks for playing.

So, we should have been like Sweden and not implemented such draconian mitigation efforts. Yet, their death rate is much worse than ours.

Is that right?

[stevieray]

Originally Posted by limested

Again. You are ****ing clueless. You spout shit off you have no clue about.

That's not a rebuttal.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by petegz28

And the difference between us and them is likely to be largely in their favor in the long run.

So I've herd.