***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[jdubya]

Originally Posted by Donger

For those curious about how we locked down during 1918:

https://www.theatlantic.com/family/a...antine/609163/

People even bitched about sporting events then...

From your link.....I agree that 6 weeks we are at our max.....time to open up again....

"After six weeks of lockdown, public gathering spaces in Seattle finally reopened for business. “School opens this week,” Harris wrote in her diary. “Thursday! Did you ever? As if they couldn’t have waited till Monday!”

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by DaFace

To put the exact numbers to it, that model had the number of deaths through August at:

Minimum: 38,242
Mean: 81,114
Maximum: 162,106

And just focusing on dates we have actuals for (through April 27th):

Minimum: 30,741
Mean: 55,446
Maximum: 104,570
Actual: 55,891

Don't know if you have seen this, thought being math guy you might be interested. You can download the model data as a CSV file here by state or the US.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...asting-us.html

[Donger]

Originally Posted by jdubya

From your link.....I agree that 6 weeks we are at our max.....time to open up again....

"After six weeks of lockdown, public gathering spaces in Seattle finally reopened for business. “School opens this week,” Harris wrote in her diary. “Thursday! Did you ever? As if they couldn’t have waited till Monday!”

And potentially be okay with getting to 600,000 dead again?

[Kiimo]

Key coronavirus model will revise projections to nearly 135,000 US deathshttps://t.co/TvHNeE203H

— Jake Tapper (@jaketapper) May 4, 2020

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by Monticore

Medical technology might have been slightly different back then

They probably ran out of vents.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

They probably ran out of vents.

Heard China was hoarding masks.

[Mecca]

Considering schools would be over in 2-3 weeks the point of reopening them is what?

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by Donger

And potentially be okay with getting to 600,000 dead again?

You mean 2.15 million.

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by Mecca

Considering schools would be over in 2-3 weeks the point of reopening them is what?

I must have missed that

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by jdubya

When was the last time any nation stopped EVERYTHING because of a virus?

That should probably tell you something when 94 countries have done some kind of lockdown.

When is the last time 94 countries have agreed on something?

[Mecca]

Originally Posted by SAUTO

I must have missed that

I just keep seeing some people push for that, what's the point right now? The school year is basically over.

[jdubya]

Originally Posted by Donger

And potentially be okay with getting to 600,000 dead again?

The king of strawman you are lol.

It wont get to that as we can still practice common sense social distancing and hygene but still resume most jobs. In the US this stoppage is costing us $2 trillion a month.....not counting the Stimulus that is borrowed....we are heading to dark times if this insanity doesnt stop now. Thankfully many are understanding this already and rumblings are happening and counties and states are beginning to open

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

You mean 2.15 million.

No. I meant 600,000

[Donger]

Originally Posted by jdubya

The king of strawman you are lol.

It wont get to that as we can still practice common sense social distancing and hygene but still resume most jobs. In the US this stoppage is costing us $2 trillion a month.....not counting the Stimulus that is borrowed....we are heading to dark times if this insanity doesnt stop now. Thankfully many are understanding this already and rumblings are happening and counties and states are beginning to open

Is historical precedence a strawman?

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by jdubya

The king of strawman you are lol.

It wont get to that as we can still practice common sense social distancing and hygene but still resume most jobs. In the US this stoppage is costing us $2 trillion a month.....not counting the Stimulus that is borrowed....we are heading to dark times if this insanity doesnt stop now. Thankfully many are understanding this already and rumblings are happening and counties and states are beginning to open

There seems to be a disconnect in this thread. If you aren't for total lockdown you are obviously in favor of doing absolutely nothing right?

Yet I haven't seen a single person advocating the "do nothing" scenario.