*** Official 2016 Royals Offseason Repository ***

[duncan_idaho]

Well, folks, it has happened. The Royals stand triumphant, atop the heap of MLB.

In this thread, we'll track the action as Dayton Moore continues The Process and attempts to defend the long-awaited title.

Before we get to the meet of it, let's take a minute to reflect ... and say "I'm Sorry" to Dayton Moore.

We gave you hell. Many of us called for your head. But you were right. You got it done. Congratulations. Mea culpa.

Now, let's talk about the offseason:

LINK TO 2016-18 PAYROLL INFO COURTESY OF ROYALS REVIEW

The Royals will have a few priorities: Corner OF (x2) and 1 SP, IMO. The rest of the core is solid and will need little tweaking. Looking at the increase in ticket sales, merchandising, concessions, parking, etc., I think it's fair to assume the Royals GROSSED $100 million more this season, or close to it. That gives Glass and Dayton Moore much more flexibility on payroll for 2016 (hopefully).

First order of business will be gauging the Alex Gordon market. If he can be resigned for 4-5 years at around $75-80 million total, it would be hard for KC to pass on that. He's still an above-average corner OF bat, and the Royals will need to bring in at least one proven guy to play in a corner if Gordon walks... and the whole market looks a lot like Alex - guys in their early 30s looking for huge, final contracts.

Second order of business: Make a decision on Zobrist. It sounds like KC will pursue him aggressively. At 34, he's at risk of declining in a big way after a few years. If they could find someone to take on Omar Infante for eating 1/2 of his deal, that would be a great start to things.

If they decide not to spend on Zobrist, KC will need to cobble together some sort of plan for 2B/RF that involves some cheaper options like Orlando, Colon, Dyson, etc.

I could see them deciding his ability to provide great insurance at either 2B or in RF is worth the risk.

Third order of business: Add depth to the rotation with a FA SP. Duffy, Ventura, Volquez and Medlen are locks for 4 spots, it seems. Kyle Zimmer may finally be ready to make a MLB impact, but his innings will be limited. That means KC needs insurance. Will it kill two birds with one stone (and insure against Duffy/Ventura regression) by signing a more top-tier guy? Or does Moore look to Chris Young/someone like him for this depth?

Personally, I think Mike Leake would be a great fit with KC's defense and park, and I know Moore has long coveted him. He's still young - just 28 - and has succeeded in bandbox Cincinnati for years.

Ian Kennedy, Mat Latos, Marco Estrada, and Justin Masterson are some other names that may pique interest (a little further down the list).

Other than that, I don't think KC makes any major moves. Greg Holland will be interesting to observe, as they have one more year of control of him, and he will obviously miss all of that season. I wouldn't be surprised to see a pre-arbitration deal that pays him something like $15 million over the next two seasons, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him turned loose, period.

The bullpen will rest upon Wade Davis/Herrera/Hochevar, filling in pieces around them. Bringing Madson back wouldn't be a surprise, but he could get a big deal from another team that is willing to pay him as their top setup guy or even their closer.

I think the biggest prospects to watch in Spring Training will be:

1) Kyle Zimmer. The hype has built, died down, built again, etc. If he's healthy, he's filthy and a potential ToR arm. But what does he look like in ST, and how many innings can you reasonably expect from him if he does earn a rotation spot? It seems like 120-130 innings would be his limit unless they really stretch (or unless he has a lot of hidden innings from simulated games/extended spring training, which might push him to 150-160).

Having another cheap, home-grown pitcher would be a significant boon for this team as it tries to extend the competitive window (and potentially give KC a strong 1-2 to build its rotation around in Zimmer and Ventura)

2) Bubba Starling. I'm trying to remain skeptical, but I like what I hear about Bubba from this season, and the performance has picked up. If KC does not sign someone to fill the RF slot, I think that's a strong indication KC's front office believes Starling will be ready to contribute in 2016.

Dayton Moore has long said that when Starling's light flips on, it will happen quickly and burn brightly. Time will tell.

After his STRONG Arizona Fall League Performance, he shot up my prospect chart.

3) Miguel Almonte. His late-season stint out of the KC bullpen went poorly, but Almonte has a plus-plus changeup, a good fastball, and a decent curve ball. He may be the dark horse in the rotation competition, and unlike Zimmer, he's set up to pitch a full 180 inning season.

4) RA Mondesi. The only player to debut in the MLB World Series has incredible tools. He still needs to refine his game, but again... he may be KC's best cheap, plus alternative at a key position (2B). His defense would be a boon from Day 1, but he needs seasoning with the bat before he's asked to hold down 2B full time.

And, as always, here are the Prospects:

Duncan’s Top 20 for 2016:

Spoiler!

1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1
2. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016.
3. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags.
4. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level.
5. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season.
6. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup.
7. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly.
8. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up.
9. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing.
10. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with.

Spoiler!

11. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced.
12. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch.
13. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them.
14. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching.
15. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list.
16. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far.
17. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble.
18. Eric Skoglund, LHP: Skoglund had a nice year at Wilmington. I'm skeptical because his K rate is lower than I like to see for a guy at A+ - just 7/9, and usually guys lose a strikeout or two/9 as they move up the chain from there - but he has excellent control, walking 1.17 batters/9. 6-7 lefties with great control who get lots of ground balls - like Skoglund - have a chance to overcome bad K rates.
19. Ryan O'Hearn, 1B/LF: A lefty stick with power, O'Hearn was a savings signing as an 8th round pick, but a change in his approach increased his power - while increasing his K rate. After Vallot, probably the best pure power prospect in the Royals system.
20. Josh Staumont, RHP: I was terrified of this guy's control problems, and he walked nearly a batter an inning in his pro debut (32 BB in 40 1/3 IP). Staumont's nasty, nasty stuff (plus-plus fastball, plus slider) could make him a very good late-inning reliever who strikes out more than a batter an inning, if he can develop average or slightly below-average control. If he really masters the control, you're talking about a potential Greg Holland type, but that's a TALL task.

[Chiefspants]

Originally Posted by lewdog

I think our series with them this year is going to be really ****ing ugly.

Ventura + Herrera and Lawrie + Sale? If only Sardgeiejizijizma could have stayed an extra year.

On that note, I wonder if the Sox could talk Carlos Quentin out of retirement?

[WhawhaWhat]

So if he ends up opting out then the deal is 2 years for $21 mil.

Ian Kennedy breakdown: 7.5M in '16, 13.5M in '17, 16M in '18, 16.5M in '19, 16.5M in '20. $70M guarantee. #royals

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) January 27, 2016

[Gonzo]

Thought this was interesting.


The Royals, the Pirates and projections that go wrong
Email
comment
Jan 25, 2016
David Schoenfield
ESPN Senior Writer
You may be aware that before the 2015 season, the various projection systems didn't predict good things for the Kansas City Royals. In fact, at the media session before Game 1 of the World Series, Mike Moustakas was still grumbling about the preseason predictions.

Well ... the Royals may enter 2016 with the same chip on their shoulders. According to the projected WAR totals at FanGraphs, the Royals are the 20th-best team in baseball, below the Indians, White Sox and Tigers in the AL Central and projected as about a .500 team, give or take.

FanGraphs is well aware of this. As Jeff Sullivan wrote in an article last week, "No team has more conspicuously made us look silly than the Royals. ... For some, 'projection' is a dirty word, and for others there's just a certain skepticism. The Royals are the 'face' of this feeling, if that makes any sense, because after all, they're the defending champs, and they were projected to not be very good."


According to the projected WAR totals at FanGraphs, the Royals are the 20th-best team in baseball despite being the defending champs. Jeff Curry/USA TODAY Sports
While FanGraphs has missed on the Royals to the tune of 30 wins over the last three seasons, they've missed on another by even more: The Pittsburgh Pirates have won 33 more games than projected. Two others have won 20 more games than projected: the Cardinals and Orioles. As Jeff writes, "It's not a coincidence that, the last three years, the Pirates rank first in baseball in bullpen WPA, and the Royals rank second. That doesn't explain everything, but it's amazing how many games you can win if you don't let late leads slip away."

WPA is Win Probability Added, which in the case of bullpens translates to pitching really well in clutch moments in close games. Since 2013, the Cardinals are fourth in bullpen WPA and the Orioles are sixth. So strong bullpens seems to have a correlation to exceeding a team's projected record, but bullpens can be volatile and difficult to project. You wouldn't predict Wade Davis to have an ERA under 1.00 because that's insane, but he's done it two years in a row. The Royals had great bullpens in 2013 and 2014 and were thus projected to regress in 2015; instead, the pen was even better.

Bullpens don't always explain everything, however The Yankees are No. 3 in bullpen WPA since 2013 and they've more or less matched their projected totals; the Padres have had good bullpens and performed worse than expected.

Anyway, I thought there might be something else that Jeff didn't mention in his article: Health.

Look at the Royals. In 2015, six of the nine regulars played at least 140 games. The only major injury in the lineup was to Alex Gordon. Omar Infante got hurt, but he was terrible and they brought in an upgrade in Ben Zobrist. They did have to shuffle around the rotation a bit but the rotation wasn't the strength of the team. In 2014, however, four starters made 30-plus starts and a fifth made 25. All nine regular position players played at least 130 games. In 2013, they had less stability but four regulars played at least 156 games and their top three starters all made at least 32 starts. The Royals haven't had much depth on the position-player side but they haven't needed it.

The Pirates have had more platoons and moving parts than the Royals, but in 2015, five regulars played at least 150 games; no other team had more than four. Like the Royals with Salvador Perez, they had a durable catcher in Francisco Cervelli, who played 130 games. Their top six starters, including trade acquisition J.A Happ, started 153 of 162 games.

As for the Orioles, they had five regulars play 156-plus games in 2013, plus catcher Matt Wieters (148 games) and another 146-gamer. In 2014, they won 96 games despite the injuries to Manny Machado (82 games) and Matt Wieters (26 games) and PED suspension for Chris Davis (127 games). Certainly a remarkable managing job by Buck Showalter, but six starting pitchers did start 161 of 162 games, so the rotation remained healthy, and it's amazing what can happen when you don't have dig into your seventh, eighth and ninth starting pitchers. Last year, the Orioles battled more injuries and even though the bullpen was terrific, they finished 81-81.

This isn't to suggest that the health records of these teams have been all that unusual (I don't know without a deeper examination). But health is a really another tool alongside hitting, defense, arm and speed.

Of course, projection systems account for the durability of players and the FanGraphs projection has Eric Hosmer, Moustakes, Alcides Escobar, Gordon and Kendrys Morales all batting at least 600 times, with Lorenzo Cain at 574 and Perez with 531 PAs. So in the Royals' case, the projection for 2016 isn't so much about health as ... well, the projections. Here:

Position players: 20.5 WAR (24.9 in 2015)
Starters: 9.6 WAR (8.4 in 2015)
Bullpen: 2.7 WAR (5.0 in 2015)

For the position players, FanGraphs has the Royals hitting .265/.318/.399 compared to .269/.322/.412 in 2015. Basically, it's not buying into the increased offense from Moustakas and Cain in 2015 and projecting both to regress somewhat in 2016. The Royals' bullpen WPA was even higher than its WAR, so I suspect this: If the bullpen is dominant again and Moustakas and Cain hold their gains from 2015, the Royals will be just fine ... assuming good health.

[tomahawk kid]

I'd feel a lot better with one more OF Bat.

Going into the season with a Dyson / Paulando platoon in RF makes me nervous.

[Prison Bitch]

Originally Posted by tomahawk kid

I'd feel a lot better with one more OF Bat.

Going into the season with a Dyson / Paulando platoon in RF makes me nervous.

Why? In 476 PA they combined for 2.8 WAR. Rios in 411 produced 0.2. They should've played over Rios last year (yes, Rios was good in the playoffs)


Put in perspective: they provided the identical WAR Alex Gordon did in 422 PA. Why worry?

[Saul Good]

I'm not worried about the platoon. Second base scares me, though.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

That makes three organizations (Brewers, Blue Jays, A's) who have now dumped Lawrie, with his inability to get along with his teammates being a primary problem each time. "Lockerroom cancer" smoke has risen each time.

Just like Latos.

I hadn't heard that about his trade away from the A's.

He'd had a clash with an umpire in the minors when he was with the Brewers but I didn't think he'd gotten the lockerroom cancer tag with them either. Then again, when you look at the fact that he was essentially traded straight across for Shaun Marcum, I guess there's some smoke there as well.

I suppose I can reluctantly include him in that group given that it does appear there were three teams that ran him. I still don't think he's a dirty player and if he's disliked it's because he's a bit of a 'try hard'.

But there's no escaping being run out of three organizations so as much as I like the way the guy plays the game, I guess I have to admit he's a douche.

So we'll just go with the Unholy Trinity for those 3...

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Great Expectations

Did you not read how the Cardinal fans not only told us how we are wrong about Lawrie, but they also gave an example about how they were wrong in a similar situation in the past?

How did we get so lucky to have the bfib come on this board to not only tell us when we are wrong, but to also be able to give us Cardinal history kessons in the process?

Shhhhh.

The adults are speaking...

[KC_Connection]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

That makes three organizations (Brewers, Blue Jays, A's) who have now dumped Lawrie, with his inability to get along with his teammates being a primary problem each time. "Lockerroom cancer" smoke has risen each time.

Just like Latos.

I don't know why the As traded him away, but there was never any talk that Lawrie was a cancer in Toronto. AA didn't want to trade him away either. Beane requested him, though, and you do what you have to do when he's offering up the the MVP.

I can certainly see how his personality would rub some the wrong way, but baseball culture is full of guys like him.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Gonzo

Thought this was interesting.

When the Cardinals added Eduard Mujica a few years back, a guy I was talking with mentioned his WPA with the Marlins and gave me a pretty good rundown on it.

I was sold from that point forward. It's really an ideal way to analyze reliever value, IMO. It's still somewhat situation dependent but it also gives you a much better big-picture view than things like WAR and even peripheral performance stats like WHIP and K%.

Guys that consistently go out there and leave with there team more likely to win than they were when the pitcher came into the game are, by their definition, valuable relief pitchers. Ryan Madson is a perfect example - there's nothing sexy about Madson's arsenal. He's not a super high strikeout guy, he doesn't blow you away with heat or the snapdragon breaking balls. He just goes out there and gets the job done to the tune of the 10th best WPA in the AL and 23rd best overall. The Cardinals have one of those of their own in Seth Maness - he's nothing but a sinkerballer who throws strikes but he put up the 13th best WPA in baseball last year.

The one thing I can't figure out if it's a predictive stat at all. Does a good WPA one year suggest a good WPA the next? I haven't seen any research on it but if you look at the guys that are leading the league one year, they're usually there the next (with exceptions given to basic reliever volatility). At this point I'm still not convinced if it tells you that guys have done well (evaluative stat; not terribly useful going forward) or that they will continue to do well (predictive stat and much more useful).

Its interesting that fangraphs seems to have finally come on board a bit there; WPA is an amazing stat for evaluating bullpen effectiveness in a rearview, though it remains to be seen how useful it is for projections.

[tomahawk kid]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

Why? In 476 PA they combined for 2.8 WAR. Rios in 411 produced 0.2. They should've played over Rios last year (yes, Rios was good in the playoffs)


Put in perspective: they provided the identical WAR Alex Gordon did in 422 PA. Why worry?

Good perspective.

Thanks!

[Sure-Oz]

Originally Posted by WhawhaWhat

So if he ends up opting out then the deal is 2 years for $21 mil.

Ian Kennedy breakdown: 7.5M in '16, 13.5M in '17, 16M in '18, 16.5M in '19, 16.5M in '20. $70M guarantee. #royals

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) January 27, 2016

Don't see why he'd opt out

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Sure-Oz

Don't see why he'd opt out

It'd be tougher with that structure.

Pretty good deal by Moore to backload it sufficiently to protect the team from an effective Kennedy deciding to dump the last 3 years.

Now the only problem would be if he gets hurt, but that's a problem for any long-term deal.

[CaliforniaChief]

Cool story about the final ball from the World Series win and what Drew Butera is going to do with it.

Atta boy, Drew!

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/k...rez-mvp-012716

[Fairplay]

Originally Posted by CaliforniaChief

Cool story about the final ball from the World Series win and what Drew Butera is going to do with it.

Atta boy, Drew!

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/k...rez-mvp-012716

That would be tough turning down 25 grand, nice story though.

I'm looking forward this year to checking out the Royals hall of fame and checking out 2015 WS run. And seeing the ultimate trophy in all its glory, I remember going through there several times wondering if it would ever happen again.