***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[dirk digler]

I posted a similar story probably a good 100 pages back by now about new reports coming out of the UK about an increase in children getting toxic shock\Kawasaki disease like symptoms and had to be in ICU's. Never did follow up on that story but now we are seeing it here in the US with confirmed cases of children with Covid.

NY has now issued a health alert for this

https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/down...y-syndrome.pdf

I am concerned if this virus doesn't burn out and continues into the fall when schools re-open what we might see happen to children infected with covid. Most children have been quarantined with their parents so they haven't been exposed yet. The good news is so far none have died I don't think.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/corona...ry?id=70506264

15 children hospitalized in NYC with mysterious syndrome possibly linked to COVID-19

Fifteen children, many of whom tested positive for or had previously been exposed to the novel coronavirus, have recently been admitted to New York City hospitals with a mysterious illness possibly linked to COVID-19, health officials said in an alert Monday night.

The patients, aged 2 to 15, had been hospitalized in intensive care from April 17 to May 1 with various symptoms associated with toxic shock or Kawasaki disease, a rare inflammatory syndrome typically affecting children under the age of 5. None of the reported patients have died, though more than half required blood pressure support and five needed mechanical ventilation, according to the bulletin posted by the New York City Health Department.

"Clinical features vary, depending on the affected organ system, but have been noted to include features of Kawasaki disease or features of shock," Dr. Demetre Daskalakis, deputy city health commissioner for disease control, said in the alert Monday night. "However, the full spectrum of disease is not yet known."

All 15 patients had subjective or measured fever while more than half reported rash, abdominal pain, vomiting or diarrhea. Less than half of those patients reported respiratory symptoms, according to the city health department, which described the mystery ailment as a "multi-system inflammatory syndrome potentially associated with COVID-19."

Molecular diagnostic testing showed four of the patients were positive for the virus strain that causes COVID-19, while antibody testing revealed that six who had tested negative were likely previously infected with the virus.

The New York City Health Department had identified the 15 patients by contacting pediatric intensive care units in hospitals across the city over the past week.

"Only severe cases may have been recognized at this time," Daskalakis said.

A growing number of hospitals in the United States and Europe have reported similar cases, raising concerns of a new global pattern emerging of critically ill children with COVID-19.

[IowaHawkeyeChief]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

Could we get that lucky? I might cut my right nut off for that.

I'm willing to sacrifice for the greater good, but come on, there's no way I'm giving up a nut...

[mr. tegu]

Originally Posted by Monticore

So people screaming at the inaccuracies of the COVID models and guestimates are going all in on the financial models and guestimates.

The questions are so much easier to ask and answer for a business. You know the costs to operate. You know the revenue needed to be profitable. From there it’s pretty easy to insert numbers to know if a business will succeed. So while not perfect the models are much more likely to be accurate because the inputs and formulas are so much easier.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Monticore

So people screaming at the inaccuracies of the COVID models and guestimates are going all in on the financial models and guestimates.

Except there is one significant difference. The projections for the economy have been far more accurate than the Covid models.

For example, a month ago there were projections that we would have upwards of 30+ mil out of work at this time. Where are we? There were projections that airline travel would drop by 90%+...where are we?

Granted it's a bit easier to forecast the economic impact than Covid and to a degree you are comparing apples to oranges.

That being said one has been a bit more consistent than the other. Just sayin....

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Interesting observation.

Maybe it's my job that involves a lot of educated guessing that has made me more aware of it's limitations and realise that not all guessers are created equal.

Or just common sense.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by mr. tegu

The questions are so much easier to ask and answer for a business. You know the costs to operate. You know the revenue needed to be profitable. From there it’s pretty easy to insert numbers to know if a business will succeed. So while not perfect the models are much more likely to be accurate because the inputs and formulas are so much easier.

There are a lot of ways to dissect this all but I can tell you this, I know of at least 3 local businesses shutting down for good because of Covid ( I am sure there are way more locally that I don't know about), I don't know a single person who has tested positive. Now I am not saying all those people will never find work again but small business goes under and large corporations survive which is the exact opposite of what we want.

Extrapolate that out to every single city in the US many times over.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Monticore

Maybe it's my job that involves a lot of educated guessing that has made me more aware of it's limitations and realise that not all guessers are created equal.

Or just common sense.

Well if you are trying to equate covid models to economic models I would say that is not using common sense at all.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by mr. tegu

The questions are so much easier to ask and answer for a business. You know the costs to operate. You know the revenue needed to be profitable. From there it’s pretty easy to insert numbers to know if a business will succeed. So while not perfect the models are much more likely to be accurate because the inputs and formulas are so much easier.

It is hard to predict if and when people will go back to normal , the same way it was to predict who would comply with the SIP policies , people are always an unknown. it is possible the margin for error might be smaller doesn't mean there isn't one.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by mr. tegu

The questions are so much easier to ask and answer for a business. You know the costs to operate. You know the revenue needed to be profitable. From there it’s pretty easy to insert numbers to know if a business will succeed. So while not perfect the models are much more likely to be accurate because the inputs and formulas are so much easier.

There's a bit of a difference in forecasting for a business and forecasting for the economy as a whole. After all, people are always pretty accurate in forecasting how the stock market is going to perform...

(And for the record, as the finance guy for our small business, I have no clue what 2 months from now is going to look like let alone a year from now.)

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief

I'm willing to sacrifice for the greater good, but come on, there's no way I'm giving up a nut...

You wouldn't sacrifice just one nut to go back to normal?

[Donger]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Except there is one significant difference. The projections for the economy have been far more accurate than the Covid models.

You mean the model of 60,000 to 80,000 dead?

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Well if you are trying to equate covid models to economic models I would say that is not using common sense at all.

The economic damage could end up being worse than projected as well or the extent of economic damage from more deaths or having the hospitals work as they are now for longer there are a lot of moving parts.

[OnTheWarpath15]

Well this sounds great.

https://www.latimes.com/california/s...-than-original

[FloridaMan88]

Paging that "Where's the Beef" lady...

https://www.cnn.com/us/live-news/us-...-20/index.html

The national meat shortage is having a major effect on Wendy's, with one analyst estimating that nearly one in five of its restaurants are out of beef.

Around 1,000, or 18%, of Wendy's 5,500 US restaurants are not serving hamburgers or other meat-based items.

That's according to an analysis of online menus at every location conducted by financial firm Stephens. Wendy's is "more exposed" to the shortage sparked by the coronavirus pandemic because of its reliance on fresh beef compared to its competitors, the note said.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath15

Well this sounds great.

https://www.latimes.com/california/s...-than-original

I guess the good news is that this isn't actually anything new - it's been around for a while now.

I do keep struggling with the "In addition to spreading faster, it may make people vulnerable to a second infection after a first bout with the disease," kinds of things. With ~3.5 million people infected worldwide (that we know of), you'd think there would be a large body of evidence if it were common for it to reinfect the same people twice.