***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[sd4chiefs]

[stevieray]

Originally Posted by tk13

I'm not sure who's disagreeing with that. There's going to be serious damage and pain with the way we're going.

The problem is you believe there's an alternative. You really believe that the economy is going to return to normal? That if you just open things wide up, consumer spending will return to normal, no supply chains will be disrupted by the virus, and things will be okay? Notice no one ever answers that question, they just complain about how things are now while offering no better alternative.

You better hope it does or get ready to watch Municipalities go broke.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by BleedingRed

It about a balance which some people have lost sight off (The people who wanna stay locked up regardless, they are in this thread)

The ripple effect will kill Millions. And if in the end it turns our the Virus would burn out at lets say 1 Millions world wide (who knows) the hindsight of killing 100's of million will be just great....

This is literally no one.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by BleedingRed

The point is the supply chain has been massively affected, and people out of work adding to the depression doesn't help that supply chain.

This shut down has to end, and the reasons are very apparent. Do it in stages, do it as safely as possible.

Just remember not one single expert said the Shut Down was to keep people from getting it. They always estimated the same number of people would get it.

Yes, and there's a plan to do just that. Do you agree with that plan?

Don't be silly. Mitigation was put into effect to prevent people from becoming infected. Which prevents our hospitals from being overrun and minimizes the death toll.

No, they didn't estimate the same number of people would get it, if you're talking about no mitigation and with mitigation. The estimates were vastly different. You know that.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by BleedingRed

It about a balance which some people have lost sight off (The people who wanna stay locked up regardless, they are in this thread)

The ripple effect will kill Millions. And if in the end it turns our the Virus would burn out at lets say 1 Millions world wide (who knows) the hindsight of killing 100's of million will be just great....

If we knew all the answers finding a balance would be easier. Nobody wants to stay locked up, but better the Devil you know .

[Titty Meat]

For the sake of accuracy yesterday a poster pointed out to places like costco and walmart not having employees get sick even though they are around customers all the time. That statement was false:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/24/busin...ath/index.html

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/05/us/co...ses/index.html

[mr. tegu]

Originally Posted by Monticore

It is hard to predict if and when people will go back to normal , the same way it was to predict who would comply with the SIP policies , people are always an unknown. it is possible the margin for error might be smaller doesn't mean there isn't one.

It’s pretty easy to predict a restaurant’s maximum revenue if there are limits on how many people can go in and spend money there.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by BleedingRed

It about a balance which some people have lost sight off (The people who wanna stay locked up regardless, they are in this thread)

The ripple effect will kill Millions. And if in the end it turns our the Virus would burn out at lets say 1 Millions world wide (who knows) the hindsight of killing 100's of million will be just great....

I don't know of anybody posting here wants to stay locked up regardless. **** that I want Chiefs football and would love to go to the home opener. cmon man

[Discuss Thrower]

Cholorquine phosphate could possibly decrease viral load even with reduced dosages but doesn't yield shorter hospitalization periods.

HCQ study in Spain seems to suggest further study on its efficacy.

Switzerland's lockdown efforts tentatively yields an R0 in the .6 to .8 range.

UVB treatments suggest a relationship between C-19 and Vitamin D deficiencies.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by mr. tegu

It’s pretty easy to predict a restaurant’s maximum revenue if there are limits on how many people can go in and spend money there.

.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by mr. tegu

It’s pretty easy to predict a restaurant’s maximum revenue if there are limits on how many people can go in and spend money there.

So if the rehire, buy new stock and nobody shows up what happens?

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by mr. tegu

It’s pretty easy to predict a restaurant’s maximum revenue if there are limits on how many people can go in and spend money there.

And how do you predict how likely people will be to visit a restaurant given the fears of COVID?

(FWIW, we just did a study in Colorado, and only about a third of people say they'll go to a restaurant when they're allowed to. The rest will wait a few months.)

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by DaFace

This is literally no one.

Literally? I don't know about that. I think there are some that do want to stay locked up. A very small few but nonetheless.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Monticore

So if the rehire, buy new stock and nobody shows up what happens?

That's life. But I can tell you what will happen if they get shut down. That was the entire argument to begin with on why it is easier to buy into the economic models.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by DaFace

And how do you predict how likely people will be to visit a restaurant given the fears of COVID?

(FWIW, we just did a study in Colorado, and only about a third of people say they'll go to a restaurant when they're allowed to. The rest will wait a few months.)

Now take the converse which I believe is what started this entire thing. Can you forecast how much revenue you will have and how many employees you will have if you have to shut down?