***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by O.city

You keep testing

It’s not a one and done

Look, I don't disagree with the theory but again, not realistic.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Monticore

Because testing might have caught those people who infected the store before they went.

Just catching 1 extra infected person here and there when you have exponential growth makes a difference.

So what you are saying is everyone would be locked up until they were tested.

[Megatron96]

Originally Posted by tk13

I guess it should also be noted that Missouri has more COVID deaths than South Korea despite having 45 million less people.

It should also be noted that S. Korea has probably not been completely honest about their COVID-19 statistics . . .

[wazu]

Originally Posted by tk13

I guess it should also be noted that Missouri has more COVID deaths than South Korea despite having 45 million less people.

And they're outside playing baseball. Maybe we should follow suit.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by tk13

That is true, South Korea is like half the size of Missouri.

Now on the other hand, there are like 50 million people there. There's only about 6 in Missouri. It is way, way, way more dense.

In South Korea there are 1366 people per square mile. In Missouri it's like 87. It's not like South Korea is devoid of challenges. The way this virus behaves. a dense area like that would be a great place for the virus.

Except Missouri is surrounded by oh, 47 other states that people come and go from whereas no one really travels in and out of SK.

You got people in MO interacting with people in KS, IL, IA, NE, AR & OK just in the immediate area.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by petegz28

So what you are saying is everyone would be locked up until they were tested.

No but just catching 1 then tracing etc . Could save thousands of infections.
Germany did it pretty sure they are not a superhuman race.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

From Gates' AMA:

How long will this go on?

This will vary a lot by country. China is seeing very few cases now because their testing and “shut down” was very effective. If a country does a good job with testing and “shut down” then within 6-10 weeks they should see very few cases and be able to open back up.

When will this all end?

To bring it to small numbers globally we need a vaccine. Many rich countries will be able to keep the number of cases small (including the US) if they do the right things

Won’t a rebound happen after the shutdown ends?

It depends on how you deal with people coming in from other countries and how strong the testing effort was. So far in China the amount of rebound being seen is very low. They are controlling people coming into the country very tightly. Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore have all done a good job on this. If we do it right the rebounds should be fairly small in numbers.


This was all before the lockdown was initiated.

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by Bowser

So have we moved on from worrying about overwhelming the hospitals and health care system to now worrying about how everyone is going to catch this? Because I basically assumed everyone understood they are indeed going to catch this at some point.

Yeah..some attempted to move the goal post.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Cliff notes....

"It was never going to be over in two weeks."

[tk13]

Originally Posted by Megatron96

It should also be noted that S. Korea is probably not been completely honest about their COVID-19 statistics . . .

Based on?

You realize that's a different country than China. China is almost surely lying. South Korea is handling this way more aggressively than we did. The past experiences with SARS and H1N1 probably made a huge difference in that though.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by DaFace

"It was never going to be over in two weeks."

Okay well that we knew. The mere act of "flattening the curve" distinctly implied this would be drug out.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Except Missouri is surrounded by oh, 47 other states that people come and go from whereas no one really travels in and out of SK.

You got people in MO interacting with people in KS, IL, IA, NE, AR & OK just in the immediate area.

SK is probably a popular enough as a travel destination for Asian countries (China), they have some nice beaches.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by tk13

Based on?

You realize that's a different country than China. China is almost surely lying. South Korea is handling this way more aggressively than we did. The past experiences with SARS and H1N1 probably made a huge difference in that though.

I don't know if they are honest or not but I do know that if MO was surrounded on 3 sides by ocean and one side by North Korea then the Royals might be playing right now too.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Monticore

SK is probably a popular enough as a travel destination for Asian countries (China), they have some nice beaches.

There were travel restrictions all over regarding SK.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by petegz28

I don't know if they are honest or not but I do know that if MO was surrounded on 3 sides by ocean and one side by North Korea then the Royals might be playing right now too.

I would bet SK has more visitors than MO.