***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[carlos3652]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

In addition to the elderly, anyone with a "Compromised" immunity, either from high blood pressure, Diabetes Type I & II, chemotherapy, radiation, recent surgeries, obesity or a combination of the above, are at a severe high risk of being infected by this disease when exposed, and will most likely have extreme difficulty in recovering.

From what I understand around 45% of the cases being reported (over 130k) have underlying conditions:


Cardiovascular disease
13.2% of cases - of those 10.5% die. (1 out of every 10)
Diabetes
9.2% of cases - of those 7.3% die.
Chronic respiratory disease
8.0% / 6.3%
Hypertension
8.4% / 6.0%
Cancer
7.6% / 5.6%

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...-demographics/

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by carlos3652

From what I understand around 45% of the cases being reported (over 130k) have underlying conditions:


Cardiovascular disease
13.2% of cases - of those 10.5% die. (1 out of every 10)
Diabetes
9.2% of cases - of those 7.3% die.
Chronic respiratory disease
8.0% / 6.3%
Hypertension
8.4% / 6.0%
Cancer
7.6% / 5.6%

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...-demographics/

Thanks, I forgot to mention asthma and COPD

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by dlphg9

At home testing would be the best possible way to contain this thing. Sure the cost would be high, but it's only a fraction of how much money will be lost due to this.

not testing would be a way higher cost. That’s why insurance companies said they would cover the cost. Bill in the house to pay the rest of the costs of testing for the uninsured.

[HayWire]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

In addition to the elderly, anyone with a "Compromised" immunity, either from high blood pressure, Diabetes Type I & II, chemotherapy, radiation, recent surgeries, obesity or a combination of the above, are at a severe high risk of being infected by this disease when exposed, and will most likely have extreme difficulty in recovering.

Going to suck for my family. Wife is going for surgery in 3 weeks (in Springfield on top of that), son has asthma, and I'm in good shape except for high blood pressure. I just want my shit tickets

[carlos3652]

I don't typically buy into conspiracy theories and this could just be coincidence... and obv every virus is different...

BUT... If the Chinese were trying to reduce their population by killing old people with underlying conditions, by creating something that would not kill healthy / young people.. I would slightly entertain the idea. Population Control with a man made virus.

Just the fact that H1N1 was so different than this...

[BigRedChief]

pic.twitter.com/N80c1tSSxE

— Tom Hanks (@tomhanks) March 13, 2020

[BigRedChief]

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's wife has tested positive for the new coronavirus. His office says Sophie Grégoire Trudeau is felling well and will remain in isolation. https://t.co/0C9nRD9B9q

— The Associated Press (@AP) March 13, 2020

[jerryaldini]

Originally Posted by Spott

Among all this corona bs, it’s good to read this kind of info. Like everyone else, my 401K has taken a huge kick to the nuts the past two weeks. I haven’t looked at in the last 10 days because it just sucks. At least my employment is safe and should be recession proof (knock on wood) and hopefully everyone can just ride this out until the panic subsides.

It's very stressful to watch, especially if you're nearer retirement. This one is especially hard because of the unpredictability of the virus, and of course the health aspects. Try to avoid clickbait sites like marketwatch that have lots of worst case fearmongers (Bloomberg is excellent).

We all need to take the longer view, but in this case only about a year we hope if our government has its act together on testing and quarantine. China is a guide here. Look at how quickly active cases crested in the chart below(about a month), and have now contracted to the point that they are getting back to work. About a 3-month episode. Here, we can hope that by mid-summer we have a good handle on this, meaning our economy has an awful second quarter like China's first, a weak third (recessions typically about 6-9 months with about 13% EPS decline), but pent up demand aids a strong fourth quarter recovery (yes as Buddy Bell said it can always get worse). This market is discounting a 30% EPS decline. That should not happen unless our govt blows it.

If it plays out as above, a year from now we can be back above 3,000 on the S&P, with a recession in the rear view and the long-term secular bull continuing. Near term I'm hoping 2,300 holds, another 7% (33% total; the Chinese only went 12%, Hong Kong 21, Korea 25, we should hold!). Remember the Dec 18 drawdown, only 15 months ago? We're a bit above that now. On the long trend we are at summer 17. We'll recover it. The Fed is coming at this hard. Wednesday's meeting will be memorable. They committed to do up to $1 trillion repo today. We need fiscal fast and hard as well. Helicopter cash. It's coming.

When we see the credit spreads on high yield bonds come back in we can start to sound the all clear. Credit moves first. Bond market was signaling this when China was tanking, the but stocks shrugged it off. As I write this futures down another 2% since the close, not bad. We've broken circuits three straight days, so if futures don't tonight (5%) that's good news. Hang in there and stay safe!

[TLO]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

pic.twitter.com/N80c1tSSxE

— Tom Hanks (@tomhanks) March 13, 2020

They look well. I'm happy to see that.

[penguinz]

Originally Posted by carlos3652

I don't typically buy into conspiracy theories and this could just be coincidence... and obv every virus is different...

BUT... If the Chinese were trying to reduce their population by killing old people with underlying conditions, by creating something that would not kill healthy / young people.. I would slightly entertain the idea. Population Control with a man made virus.

Just the fact that H1N1 was so different than this...

You reduce population by killing off those who are able to reproduce. Not by killing off those who have lived their lives.

[TLO]

A quote from New York.

The number of positive cases of coronavirus in New York climbed to 328 on Thursday, but Gov. Andrew Cuomo said he would not be surprised if that number was more than 3,000, stressing that there is no way to know the breadth of the virus because the state lacks adequate testing supplies.

This seems a little more realistic than 100,000 cases.

[carlos3652]

Originally Posted by penguinz

You reduce population by killing off those who are able to reproduce. Not by killing off those who have lived their lives.

They already do that there...

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by TLO

A quote from New York.



This seems a little more realistic than 100,000 cases.

New York isn't Ohio

[TLO]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

New York isn't Ohio

Correct, but they've had sustained community transmission for some time.

Ohio has not.

I'm just having trouble wrapping my brain around the numbers, man. Or I just don't want to believe it.

[BigRedChief]

I did the math: a full battery of coronavirus testing costs at minimum $1,331.

I also did the legal research: the Administration has the authority to make testing free for every American TODAY.

I secured a commitment from a high-level Trump official that they’d actually do it. pic.twitter.com/RmolCtmNbG

— Rep. Katie Porter (@RepKatiePorter) March 12, 2020