***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[IowaHawkeyeChief]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Iceland, Vietnam, etc.

No one is arguing the economic costs of this or denying that 33 million people are currently unemployed. But yours is a bad faith argument on its surface and to its core. It assumes that all of those jobs that are lost will be forever lost, which is wholly incorrect. It also assumes that removing restrictions from the economy, when 70% of people oppose doing so, will somehow lead to all of these jobs coming back. It also assumes that opening up the economy won't have a secondary public health impact that leads to further economic disruption when the spread of the virus gets far worse.

The people making the sound arguments for the health of the economy are those urging for a reduction in caseload before opening up the economy, not those who think that you can just wish this away by plowing towards herd immunity. Past studies have demonstrated that locales that enacted harsher lockdown measures suffered less loss of life and better or no worse economic disruption than areas that didn't limit the spread of infectious pandemics like the 1918 flu.

Seriously? That's the list, what made them different? What do you mean by harsher lockdown measures? Cell phone tracking and locking down of their borders?

Did you read the Imperial College model?

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...9-Report-9.pdf

Once interventions are relaxed (in the example in Figure 3, from September onwards), infections begin to rise, resulting in a predicted peak epidemic later in the year. The more successful a strategy is at temporary suppression, the larger the later epidemic is predicted to be in the absence of vaccination, due to lesser build-up of herd immunity.

They said it would take 12-18 months off complete lockdown to suppress this virus instead of herd immunity...

[Donger]

Moderna’s investigational vaccine for the novel coronavirus has been cleared by the US Food and Drug Administration to proceed to second phase of a study, the company said today in a press release.

The next phase of the trial is expected to begin shortly, it said.

The vaccine, mRNA-1273, was the first US vaccine to start clinical trials in the United States. Moderna said it is finalizing protocol for a phase 3 study, which is expected to begin in early summer.

[Lzen]

Originally Posted by Bearcat

Those are all good points. However, we have to remember a couple of things. First, medicine does not know everything. Doctors get things wrong all of the time. Second, not all doctors agree.

[FloridaMan88]

Originally Posted by F150

Should we not have a vaccine soon, the numbers wil rise on infections and deaths. Its inevitable.

The people waiting for a vaccine to save the day are basically willing to accept a permanent "new normal" because there is a likely scenario where a scalable/effective vaccine is never developed.

The naive "hammer/dance" article that was posted here yesterday bases its entire premise on the assumption that a vaccine will ultimately be developed.

It is worth repeating that the human coronavirus family was first discovered 60 years ago and there has NEVER been an effective/scalable vaccine created for any type of coronavirus.

[Lzen]

Originally Posted by notorious

A form of the virus has been in animals for years. That’s why they are testing positive.

I am curious as to who had balls big enough to swab a ****ing tiger.

Tranquilizer?

[IowaHawkeyeChief]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Did you ever think that's why the CDC estimates of deaths were multiple times that of laboratory-confirmed deaths for H1N1?

Did you not read my entire posts? Again, H1N1 there was very little testing due to capacity. Everyone in the hospital from the start is getting tested for Covid. If there is a small chance they died of Covid, it is being mandated that it get coded as a probably Covid death? This is fact.

Here's the history of H1N1 again...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-f...23579720100212

“CDC estimates that between 41 million and 84 million cases of 2009 H1N1 occurred between April 2009 and January 16, 2010,” the agency said in a statement. Usually the CDC goes with a middle number, which it puts at about 57 million people infected.

Between 8,330 and 17,160 people died during that time from H1N1, with a middle range of about 12,000, the CDC said. But between 880 and 1,800 children died, up to 13,000 adults under the age of 65 and only 1,000 to 2,000 elderly.

In a normal flu season, the CDC estimates that 36,000 Americans die of flu, but 90 percent are over the age of 65. The CDC estimates that 200,000 go into the hospital, again mostly frail elderly people with other health conditions.

The swine flu pandemic has affected much younger people.

The CDC estimate shows that between 183,000 and 378,000 people were hospitalized with H1N1 swine flu from April to January.

In an average flu season, about 82 children die in the United States, the CDC says. But those are lab-confirmed cases.

ACCURATE ESTIMATES
The CDC and the World Health Organization stopped trying to count all the actual cases months ago, once it became clear that H1N1 was a pandemic that would infect millions.

WHO’s count of lab-confirmed cases showed that at least 15,292 people had died in 212 countries and territories.

But WHO and the CDC note there are nowhere near enough diagnostic tests to give to everyone with flu-like symptoms to see if they really have swine flu.

The CDC therefore does its estimates based on models, calculated by looking intensively at small groups of people, gathering data on overall reports of sickness and death, and reconciling the two.

That is also how the CDC comes up with its annual estimates for seasonal flu, and experts agree these estimates are far more accurate than counting confirmed cases.
The following is from the CDC much later looking back at the true impact using the more accurate reconciliation method mentioned earlier...

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-res...-pandemic.html

From the CDC...

Additionally, CDC estimated that 151,700-575,400 people worldwide died from (H1N1)pdm09 virus infection during the first year the virus circulated.** Globally, 80 percent of (H1N1)pdm09 virus-related deaths were estimated to have occurred in people younger than 65 years of age. This differs greatly from typical seasonal influenza epidemics, during which about 70 percent to 90 percent of deaths are estimated to occur in people 65 years and older.

Though the 2009 flu pandemic primarily affected children and young and middle-aged adults, the impact of the (H1N1)pdm09 virus on the global population during the first year was less severe than that of previous pandemics. Estimates of pandemic influenza mortality ranged from 0.03 percent of the world’s population during the 1968 H3N2 pandemic to 1 percent to 3 percent of the world’s population during the 1918 H1N1 pandemic. It is estimated that 0.001 percent to 0.007 percent of the world’s population died of respiratory complications associated with (H1N1)pdm09 virus infection during the first 12 months the virus circulated.

[FloridaMan88]

Originally Posted by O.city

Even if you just open the gates up, the economy is gonna take a while to come back. People aren't running out and shopping and such.

Wrong... this was the scene in Miami last weekend after they took the small step of re-opening marinas.

People are completely done with the social distancing house arrest measures.

This is the line to get into Crandon Marina on Key Biscayne as of 7am, Saturday, May 2, 2020.

📷: Hector Echeverria,
(IG: @islandtoyz) pic.twitter.com/ktEYESm4fY

— Key Biscayne (@keybiscayne) May 2, 2020

[IowaHawkeyeChief]

Originally Posted by Pablo

DC regulars trying to step out of the way of the Hamas steamroller in this thread:

Yea, that we should be more like Iceland, South Korea and Vietnam was a real winner...

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88

The naive "hammer/dance" article that was posted here yesterday bases its entire premise on the assumption that a vaccine will ultimately be developed.

It was also written by a Star Wars essayist and not anyone with a public health background.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief

This just isn't true. We are testing anyone that dies in the hospital or at home who had symptoms of Covid-19 from the start. In fact, the CDC is having anyone with similar symptoms to Covid-19 be list as a probable Covid-19 deaths and those are in all of the counts we see. When comparing deaths this year to probable deaths during previous years for the same time period, we are under in some weeks and over in some, but the over is less than amount of Covid deaths. H1N1, killed more young and healthy, it's just a fact, and the CDC admitted they didn't have testing capabilities to test everyone who they thought had H1N1 at the time. This has been linked previously in this thread.

what isn't true?


The CDC does estimate flu deaths and did the H1N1 deaths. Covid deaths are higher right now than either of those estimates. CDC will do an estimate of deaths, cases etc once this pandemic is over.

[IowaHawkeyeChief]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

what isn't true?


The CDC does estimate flu deaths and did the H1N1 deaths. Covid deaths are higher right now than either of those estimates. CDC will do an estimate of deaths, cases etc once this pandemic is over.

https://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/show...ostcount=28969

[O.city]

Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88

Wrong... this was the scene in Miami last weekend after they took the small step of re-opening marinas.

People are completely done with the social distancing house arrest measures.

This is the line to get into Crandon Marina on Key Biscayne as of 7am, Saturday, May 2, 2020.

📷: Hector Echeverria,
(IG: @islandtoyz) pic.twitter.com/ktEYESm4fY

— Key Biscayne (@keybiscayne) May 2, 2020

People taking their boats and going to the beach is a little different than crowding back into restaurants and work places no?

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief

https://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/show...ostcount=28969

2019-2020 CDC Estimated Flu Deaths: 24k-62k

H1N1 CDC Estimated US Deaths: 12,469

H1N1 Laboratory confirmed Deaths: 3600

Covid19 US Deaths so far: 74,454

[stumppy]

Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88

Wrong... this was the scene in Miami last weekend after they took the small step of re-opening marinas.

People are completely done with the social distancing house arrest measures.

This is the line to get into Crandon Marina on Key Biscayne as of 7am, Saturday, May 2, 2020.

📷: Hector Echeverria,
(IG: @islandtoyz) pic.twitter.com/ktEYESm4fY

— Key Biscayne (@keybiscayne) May 2, 2020

BFD, it's been like that at the lakes around here since the weather warmed up. It was one of the things people could still do while practicing SD.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by O.city

People taking their boats and going to the beach is a little different than crowding back into restaurants and work places no?

There is a thread I think in the lounge with multiple reasons why Florida should not be used to compare them to the average Americans