Jose Bautista

[RedThat]

May I ask, where in the heck did this guy come from?

Leads the league in HR's, RBI's, has a good OBP, solid utility player. Great arm in the outfield, he is up there as one of the leaders in assists for an outfielder. Very good defensively. Yeah he was a Royal at one time. I know it sucks. You can shoot me for saying that. But how in the world did he become this good? Dude is having a monster year. Great breakout season.

[RedThat]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

There's really no such thing as a good hitting coach. You can either hit, or you can't.

The only thing that a hitting coach can really teach you is philosophy.

His K% is such that it's indicative that he hasn't shortened his stroke.

He doesn't hit for a tremendous average, nor is he a guy that hits to all fields.

If Gaston had really improved him, his contact ratio and his LD% would be way up. They aren't.

Yeah the philosophy part I can see coming into effect. Cito preaches to these guys to be aggressive at the plate day in and day out. That could be a contributing factor as to why they are hitting so many homeruns this year?

One thing though, they do strike out quite a bit. Thats the consequence imo that comes with being an aggressive hitting ball club. Everytime these guys are at the plate the number one thing they have on their minds is swinging for the fences. But what impresses me most is they have guys hitting homeruns throughout the lineup. It doesn't just come from Bautista.

The Jays aren't really a team that hits for average. I watched some of their games this year and I will say part of the reason I believe is because they're not a patient hitting team.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by RedThat

Yeah the philosophy part I can see coming into effect. Cito preaches to these guys to be aggressive at the plate day in and day out. That could be a contributing factor as to why they are hitting so many homeruns this year?

One thing though, they do strike out quite a bit. Thats the consequence imo that comes with being an aggressive hitting ball club. Everytime these guys are at the plate the number one thing they have on their minds is swinging for the fences. But what impresses me most is they have guys hitting homeruns throughout the lineup. It doesn't just come from Bautista.

The Jays aren't really a team that hits for average. I watched some of their games this year and I will say part of the reason I believe is because they're not a patient hitting team.

Pretty much.

An analogy would be a d-coordinator who teaches his players to go for the kill shot every time.

Will you cause a lot of drops and fumbles because of that? Yeah. But you'll also end up whiffing on a shitload of tackles.

It's a feast or famine ideology.

[SnakeXJones]

It's Adrian Beltre V.2 Watch him get a crazy contract next season and be shitty

[cookster50]

He says his hitting coach got him starting his swing earlier last year. If you look at what he did late last year, it's continuing. I think those saying its just a one year wonder will be in for a shock. Is he a 50 HR guy(which is what he'll flirt with this year), no. Is he a 30-35, he just might be.

[Consistent1]

Well, he is 3-3 with a grand slam tonight.

[RedThat]

Originally Posted by cookster50

He says his hitting coach got him starting his swing earlier last year. If you look at what he did late last year, it's continuing. I think those saying its just a one year wonder will be in for a shock. Is he a 50 HR guy(which is what he'll flirt with this year), no. Is he a 30-35, he just might be.

And this is what I like about him. he is one of those guys that earned his job. He worked his way through last year. He came in and swung a bit of a hot bat. Worked on his swing a bit through spring training, and rewarded himself and the team with excellent play. All this has carried over into next the season and yup here he is having a great year. I don't think he is a fluke too be honest. Thats just my opinion.

*There has been plenty of talk about him always having the potential to hit the long ball. Now just happens to be the time he is proving it.

[RedThat]

Originally Posted by cookster50

He says his hitting coach got him starting his swing earlier last year. If you look at what he did late last year, it's continuing. I think those saying its just a one year wonder will be in for a shock. Is he a 50 HR guy(which is what he'll flirt with this year), no. Is he a 30-35, he just might be.

And this is what I like about him. he is one of those guys that earned his job. He worked his way through last year. He came in and swung a bit of a hot bat. Worked on his swing a bit through spring training, and rewarded himself and the team with excellent play. All this has carried over into next the season and yup here he is having a great year. I don't think he is a fluke too be honest. Thats just my opinion.

*There has been plenty of talk about him always having the potential to hit the long ball. Now just happens to be the time he is proving it.

[KC_Connection]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

His ISO rate is 60% higher than his career average, his HR/FB% is massively inflated over his career norms, he has a piss poor LD%, and he hits a lot of infield flies.

I'm sorry I missed this thread over the summer, but with Bautista's 46th tonight, it's timely.

How do any of those metrics imply luck is a factor in Bautista's power upswing?

His ISO isn't a fluke (he leads the majors in no-doubters: http://www.hittrackeronline.com/).

You could argue that his HR/FB% is unsustainable, I suppose, but it's quite clear he's changed his approach as a hitter since last year (http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2010/08/24/a...ome-run-binge/). If you acknowledge that Bautista has, in fact, made an actual adjustment to his swing that has created more loft and power, it would be best to at least partially ignore his HR/FB from a period in his career when he didn't have the same approach. Also, having a 20% HR/FB isn't out of the ordinary for power hitting sluggers in this league nor is it in any way "inflated" (Votto, Pena, Dunn, Scott, Cabrera, Reynolds, Ortiz, and Howard are the players with that kind of rate this season). It's not like he's doing something that a lot of other players aren't.

His low LD% is irrelevant. It's not unusual for a uppercut swinging, high FB% slugger to have a low LD% (look at guys like Carlos Pena, Adam Dunn, Mark Reynolds, Nelson Cruz, Carlos Quentin, Dan Uggla etc), nor is it reflective that any sort of fluke is going on. Same with his IFFB%...I'm not sure what conclusion you are trying to draw there. His 15.2% IFFB% isn't reflective of anything fluky or lucky going on, it just indicates that he has a uppercut swing and that he's regularly swinging for the fences. FYI, during the best offensive season baseball has ever seen (Bonds in 2004), Barry had a IFFB% of 14.2%.

He's an uppercut swinging hacker who is having a hugely aberrational power year.

Bautista may be an uppercut swinger having a huge year that he may never repeat, but he's no hacker. His 15.2 BB% is 2nd in the majors behind Daric Barton (and he's only been IBB'd twice, surprisingly).

Really, Bautista is having a ridiculous year in terms of power, and it's somewhat surprising to me that it hasn't gotten acknowledged much in the mainstream media.

[KC_Connection]

Originally Posted by RedThat

Yeah the philosophy part I can see coming into effect. Cito preaches to these guys to be aggressive at the plate day in and day out. That could be a contributing factor as to why they are hitting so many homeruns this year?

One thing though, they do strike out quite a bit. Thats the consequence imo that comes with being an aggressive hitting ball club. Everytime these guys are at the plate the number one thing they have on their minds is swinging for the fences. But what impresses me most is they have guys hitting homeruns throughout the lineup. It doesn't just come from Bautista.

The Jays aren't really a team that hits for average. I watched some of their games this year and I will say part of the reason I believe is because they're not a patient hitting team.

It can be argued that this philosophy has helped Bautista, but then again, he's one of the most patient hitters in baseball this season, completely different than many of his teammates.

[Consistent1]

He is still kicking major ass, but like someone said earlier in the thread...I don't know if i would want to sign him to a big contract either.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

By any metric, his year is absolutely unsustainable.

From BP:

What can we expect from Bautista in 2011? There had been speculation that the Blue Jays might trade him since he figures to get a large raise due to arbitration but it now appears he will back with Toronto after such a monster year. It is worth noting, despite his legitimate improvements, the Rogers Centre (very friendly to homers, doubles, and triples for both right- and left-handers) has still been very, very good to him (.301/.434/.772, an OPS of 1.206 this year). Bautista has hit .237/.334/.490 on the road, which would still be his best season in the majors, and would still give him an ISO of .253, easily a career high. While there has been improvement to his game—possibly legitimate improvement, as demonstrated by Piliere's study on his approach and swing—and his development was delayed by injury and the Rule 5 draft, 2010 is still an aberration in the sense we won't see him do this again. Staying in Toronto would help ease the fall, of course, but betting on a repeat of a home ISO nearly as high as your road slugging percentage isn't something I would put my millions on.

[KC_Connection]

Originally Posted by Consistent1

He is still kicking major ass, but like someone said earlier in the thread...I don't know if i would want to sign him to a big contract either.

The Jays have a choice to let him play one more year on whatever he gets in arbitration (and risk letting him go after 2011) or sign him to a multi-year deal right now. I don't know what I would do. There is always the trade option.

[KC_Connection]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

By any metric, his year is absolutely unsustainable.

From BP:

What can we expect from Bautista in 2011? There had been speculation that the Blue Jays might trade him since he figures to get a large raise due to arbitration but it now appears he will back with Toronto after such a monster year. It is worth noting, despite his legitimate improvements, the Rogers Centre (very friendly to homers, doubles, and triples for both right- and left-handers) has still been very, very good to him (.301/.434/.772, an OPS of 1.206 this year). Bautista has hit .237/.334/.490 on the road, which would still be his best season in the majors, and would still give him an ISO of .253, easily a career high. While there has been improvement to his game—possibly legitimate improvement, as demonstrated by Piliere's study on his approach and swing—and his development was delayed by injury and the Rule 5 draft, 2010 is still an aberration in the sense we won't see him do this again. Staying in Toronto would help ease the fall, of course, but betting on a repeat of a home ISO nearly as high as your road slugging percentage isn't something I would put my millions on.

I've read that article. He doesn't really give any reasons why it's unsustainable. He just kind of assumes it is because it's so out-of-the-blue and completely outside his pre-September '09 averages. Dave Cameron, fwiw, suggested a few weeks back that 30-40 HR going forward might not be an unrealistic expectation (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...rge-continues/).

I mean, obviously nobody is going to predict that he's going to hit 50 again next year. I wouldn't do that for any hitter currently in the majors (especially since baseball started deadening the balls in recent years). But he's been hitting HRs at this rate for nearly seven months....when is it going to end? Is it?

['Hamas' Jenkins]

It's unsustainable because his home road splits are ridiculous, he's a pull hitter that you can carve up on the outer third of the plate, and he's two years past the point where players normally have career years. In addition to that, every one of his splits isn't just above the norm, it's so far above the norm as to approach Brady Anderson status.

[KC_Connection]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

It's unsustainable because his home road splits are ridiculous,

If he's playing in Toronto next season and will reap the benefits of the Dome again, what does it matter what his home/road splits are?

he's a pull hitter that you can carve up on the outer third of the plate,

#1. You don't think pitchers haven't already been pitching him outside all year?
They have the scouting report and it isn't working. Bautista is either fouling those pitches off or just laying off balls as he gets into a hitter's count where he can get his pitch.

#2. What BP didn't acknowledge in those charts is that Bautista's love of pitches inside/over the plate isn't unusual for a power hitter that pulls the ball (and there are plenty of those guys in the game). Pitching outside is the target on many hitters, but that doesn't make them any less dangerous or their power any less "sustainable" or "real."

and he's two years past the point where players normally have career years.

Players can't have career years when they are 29 now?

The 27 threshold isn't any kind of a strict rule here, man. It's just an average. There are always outliers. Bautista is apparently one of them.

In addition to that, every one of his splits isn't just above the norm, it's so far above the norm as to approach Brady Anderson status.

So you think he's going to fade simply because there was a guy named Brady Anderson who faded after his big season 14 years ago?

Again, the huge increase isn't a good enough reason unless there are components that indicate it isn't real (it's not like it's BABIP-induced at all).