My analysis of Scott Pioli and his Interview

[Amnorix]

I just watched the full interview on KCChiefs.com where Pioli was introduced. As a close Patriots' watcher and expert (well moreso than you guys, for now anyway) in the ways of the Patriots and Mr. Pioli, I saw several things that were very interesting and figured I'd share them. I see everyone is creating separate threads on Pioli, so this is legit I guess.

First, I think Herm is likely gone. I strongly suspect that one reason for the delay in announcing Scott (I'll suggest another below) is the status of Herm Edwards.

Scott praised Herm, but when asked to give his assessment of his strengths as a coach, all he could come up with is that he liked him personally and that his players played hard for him. While that's clearly important, he didn't say ALOT of the buzzwords that I would expect him to say if he were giving a coach high praise.

I noted, correctly, in a prior thread that you could expect to hear Pioli say that he would build a "big, strong, tough, smart, disciplined" football team. None of those buzzwords came through. The phrases Belichick uses to praise the coaches he highly respects, such as Shanarat, were not used.

Then Clark Hunt went on to say that Scott would basically investigate and then report to him with a recommendation. What I strongly suspect is that Clark didn't want to fire HErm, but wants to keep him. Maybe because he feels a sense of obligation to him for handing him such a young roster, or perhaps just to save the $4MM. But what Scott and Hunt agreed on was that Scott would "give him a chance" -- i.e. have discussions iwth him and get to know the players/personnel better to make a better assessment, from the inside as it were, of Herm, and then recommend to Clark whether he will be kept or discharged.

I strongly suspect Herm will be gone in about 2 weeks.


Second, the last exchange, at the very end of the interview, was very telling. The reporter asked if Scott had to CLEAR trades, etc. with Clark. Scott's answer was that Clark will be INFORMED of everything that happens, before it happens. He also used a few other phrases that make it clear that Scott has complete control over all football operations.

That may well have been another sticking point that slowed this process down -- discussions over the degree of control Scott would have. He obviously wants what Parcells and Belichick always wanted -- complete control.

Other than that, I would recommend that any Chiefs fan on here watch the video. It explains that "Patriots' Way", and the modus operandi for the Chiefs going forward.

He also references some of the unique challenges the Chiefs present compared ot the Patriots team that won a SB two years after BB/SP arrived. The roster is much younger here now, and there is no veteran core of players, nor a recent tradition of winning. In some ways, his job is harder here than they had with the Patriots. However, there is plenty of cap room which wasn't the case in NE. The problem, however, is that everyone in the NFL (practically) has plenty of cap room these days, so it may not be that much of a competitive advantage.

[StcChief]

Originally Posted by Laz

i think Herm is still around for 2 reason

1. Clark likes him
2. Herm will be the "rooney rule" candidate as Herm will interview to keep his job.

the operative word here is interview

IMO it's a formality. He's gone.

[Amnorix]

Originally Posted by Basileus777

You'd like to Pats to lose 2 or 3 AFC Championship games?

Nah, just trying to realistic, can't expect to win 10 straight.

Unless, of course, you keep Herm as the HC, in which case I can and will expect to do just that.

[Crybaby Power]

What I dont understand is why would we wait so long to get a new coach when the Sr bowl and all of that shit is coming up. We need new scouts and all that shit right? what about Kuharich?

[Basileus777]

Cap room really isn't all that valuable when there are plenty of teams closer to the salary floor than the cap. And there might not even be a cap next year.

[Hammock Parties]

Amno, what are your thoughts on what Pioli might do with Larry and Tony?

[jAZ]

Originally Posted by Amnorix

I'm not sure I even understand this point.

In 2000, the Pats were waay over the cap, which meant alot of players had to get axed, some even if the team thought they were talented, but had to go because they were overpaid.

In 2008, the Chiefs have lots of cap room. That would seem to be an advantage, but the problem is that if 20 teams are significantly under teh cap, then the Chiefs aren't in any better position to outbid other teams for the talent that the Chiefs want.

Which, of course, throws it back on Pioli to identify the key players and decide which, if any, to slightly overspend on (the horror) if necessary to establish a winning tradition.

One thing is clear -- BB and SP believe in a CORE group of veterans to establish the work ethic and professionalism needed to win. Peterson and Herm believed in a bunch of kids. You can expect to see a host of FA signings of cheap, older veterans to help create the core that SP believes in.

In the past, badly run, losing teams get blown up because they are saddled with bad contracts, underperforming players, etc. The Chiefs were one of those teams last season and Herm took the hit in having to deal with that over the last 3 years, and Pioli is now walking into an organization that is uniquely free of much of the typical losing-team baggage.

[greyhoodie]

I think the fire/keep Herm analysis is a bit shallow.

The question is not is Herm the best coach to keep. The question is much more complex. The question is, "Given the available this year and the the potential other available head coach that we could hire next year, is it in KC's long term interest to replace Herm this year or wait until next year."

If Herm is fired, it will only be after Scott has identified who he wants as his replacement.

[kc rush]

Originally Posted by Amnorix

Scott praised Herm, but when asked to give his assessment of his strengths as a coach, all he could come up with is that he liked him personally and that his players played hard for him. While that's clearly important, he didn't say ALOT of the buzzwords that I would expect him to say if he were giving a coach high praise.

You do know that Herm got a Christmas card from your boy Bill, what higher praise could there be?

[Amnorix]

Originally Posted by Samoan Power

What I dont understand is why would we wait so long to get a new coach when the Sr bowl and all of that shit is coming up. We need new scouts and all that shit right? what about Kuharich?

It's too late for all that. For good or for bad, Pioli needs to take what the current scouts have compiled, combine it with his own knowledge, and go from there, for purposes of this year at least.

You can read between the lines (and it didn't take much) -- Pioli will NOT be raiding the Patriots scouting department, this year or ever. He basically made the same agreement that Dimitroff did on that front.

[Amnorix]

Originally Posted by greyhoodie

I think the fire/keep Herm analysis is a bit shallow.

The question is not is Herm the best coach to keep. The question is much more complex. The question is, "Given the available this year and the the potential other available head coach that we could hire next year, is it in KC's long term interest to replace Herm this year or wait until next year."

If Herm is fired, it will only be after Scott has identified who he wants as his replacement.

So you think Scott can/will determine what he wants to do based on who MIGHT be available next year. That's insane, IMHO. How the heck does he know for certain who is available next year?

[Amnorix]

Originally Posted by Claythan

Amno, what are your thoughts on what Pioli might do with Larry and Tony?

Larry, rpesumably, is LJ. I don't know the Chiefs roster that well, and I seem to always see him referred to as LJ, not Larry, which is why I ask.

I honestly can't assess his talent at this point. I haven't seen enough of him. I think that if he thinks LJ is more seflish than selfless, then he's gone. By trade if possible, but by axe if necessary. More likely trade, even if for low value.

I would think he'd either retain Tony for the leadership and example that he sets in terms of professionalism, etc, but you can never tell. Willie McGinest found out that when its time to move on, the team will move on, even if you're reasonable in your contract demands.

The Patriots didn't have an overly young, undertalented team with lots of spare cap room, so what they did with their vets doesn't necessarily translate well into what happens with Tony.

[Hammock Parties]

FYI LJ counts 8 mil against the cap. That won't factor into the decision?

[Deberg_1990]

Thanks for your take Amnorix.

NO way in Hell do i see Herm staying as HC.

Has there ever been a situation like that?

A coach who has won 6 games in 2 years. New GM comes in and keeps the same coach?

I cant think of anything like that. Herm is dead man walking.

[Amnorix]

Originally Posted by Claythan

FYI LJ counts 8 mil against the cap. That won't factor into the decision?

Yes, it will. Definitely. Players that are overpaid compared to performance usually get asked to trim things.

The Belichick appraoch is an economic one. Cost/benefit analysis goes into EVERY decision. Which players to keep, which to cut, which draft picks make the most sense, etc. etc. Little known is that Belichick was an economist major in college.

But, if Pioli thinks he's worth $8MM, which is about 6 or 7% or so of the current cap number, right, then that might not be a bone of contention. The other relevant question is what is the cap hit to cut him, based on acceleration of the signing bonus?

[boogblaster]

FAs are on the way ... the youth will be well served to listen and learn ...