Bradford Doolittle: Chiefs shouldn't discount Thigpen

[FringeNC]

Chiefs shouldn't discount Thigpen

While Chiefs fans are stuck in limbo waiting for new coach, let's talk some actual on-the-field football and address a little personnel matter. Actually, it's not so little. If it weren't for all the turmoil surrounding the leadership of the Chiefs, this would be the No. 1 question on the minds of their fans right now. The question is simple and its answer will no doubt have serious ramifications in regards to who KC selects with the third pick in the upcoming NFL draft. Is Tyler Thigpen a legitimate NFL quarterback?

Let's start with some scouting observations. First, from his rivals.com profile based on his college days:

* "Has a live arm with a compact delivery and has developed a nice understanding of defenses. He is quick in his setup and has the mobility to avoid the pass rush. ... He needs work on the finer points of the position to maximize his fine arm and athletic ability. ... Could become a regular in the right setting with development."

That sounds about right. Next, let's turn to Pro Football Prospectus, which bases its observations on statistical analysis and also features a nifty system for projecting the pro performance of college quarterbacks. In 2007, after Thigpen had been drafted by Minnesota, PFP wrote:

* "He's an undersized scrambler with bad mechanics."

Not a glowing report and clashes with the Rivals piece. However, in 2008, PFP dug a little deeper:

* "Apparently we didn't know what the Vikings had, and neither did the Vikings. ... relies too much on physical gifts, trying to make plays that worked fine against the Division I-AA or Division II stars, but will get him destoyed in the NFL. ... In a perfect world, he turns into (the Chiefs') version of Derek Anderson."

This was in the last offseason, when becoming Derek Anderson seemed like a good thing. PFP also offered its first statistical projection of Thigpen: 56.7% completion, 17 TD/16 INT in 493 attempts and a -32.1% DVOA (read about that stat here). His actual numbers: 54.8%, 18 TD/12 INT, -6.1% DVOA -- much better than projected.

So, as you would expect with a seventh-round pick, the scouting reports aren't glowing but there were some things to like, some upside potential and the Chiefs did well to grab Thigpen when the Vikings tried to sneak him through waivers. Could they have expected Thigpen to emerge as their starting quarterback in his second year in the NFL? Certainly not. It's exceedingly rare for a seventh-round quarterback to play -- ever. But it happens. Since 1990, there have been eight QBs drafted in rounds seven or later that eventually became the primary starter for their team for at least one season:

1. Brad Johnson
2. Trent Green
3. Gus Frerotte
4. Elvis Grbac
5. Kent Graham
6. Ty Detmer
7. Tim Rattay
8. Matt Cassell

Not exactly a murderer's row of signal-callers and a couple of guys KC fans are quite familiar with. There are six pro-bowl seasons mixed in there and Johnson was the starting QB on a Super Bowl champion. Of these, Green and Frerotte were both starters in their second season. Those two have combined to throw for nearly 50,000 yards in the NFL. So it's not out of the question that a guy like Thigpen could turn into a good starting quarterback. At the same time, guys like him are the exception not the rule: There were 67 quarterbacks taken in the seventh round or later in the time frame I examined.

COMPARABLES

The upshot of Thigpen getting so much field time last season is that you actually have some empircal data with which to work. That's always good. What we're interested in finding out is how quarterbacks with similar statistical profiles to Thigpen eventually developed. The hope is that we can hazard some sort of guess at what the chances are that Thigpen develops into a legit NFL starter.

Technical explanation for what I've done: I calculated a "similarity score" for Thigpen and every quarterback that's thrown at least 100 passes in an NFL season since 1995. I've chosen that time frame because that's how far back the data at Football Outsiders dates back and I wanted to use that as part of my criteria. After doing that, I narrowed the list down to seasons for first- and second-year quarterbacks. There are 109 such seasons. I've only looked at passing categories.

Here are the categories I used in my sim score calculation: completion percentage, yards per attempt above/below league average, first down percentage, TD/INT differential (TD-INT divided by pass attempts), sack percentage, percentage of completed passes for short yardage (1-19 yards), percentage of completed passes for medium yardage (20-39 yards), percentage of completed passes for long yardage (40+ yards) and DVOA.

Here are the 10-most similar QB seasons for first- and second-year players to Thigpen's 2008 campaign:

1. Patrick Ramsey, 2003
2. Damon Huard, 1999
3. Trent Green, 1998
4. Bobby Hoying, 1997
5. Shaun King, 1999
6. Donovan McNabb, 2000
7. Patrick Ramsey, 2002
8. Aaron Brooks, 2001
9. Jason Campbell, 2006
10. Chris Simms, 2005 (When he had his spleen, Gene)

That's a pretty good range of quarterbacks, both in the positive and the negative. McNabb is the name that jumps out at you, but let's not forget our scouting report/draft position knowledge. McNabb was very highly rated and was the second player picked in the 1999 draft.

However, Green, as we've pointed out, was a seventh-round pick. So if you agree that draft position is a good proxy for consensus scouting opinion, then in many respects, Trent Green represents the ceiling for Tyler Thigpen. The likes of Ramsey, Hoying, King, et al, represent the floor, at least as it pertains to our sample of young starters. Thigpen has already exceeded his literal floor -- those dozens of late-round QBs that never saw the field in an NFL game.

CAREER VALUE

To recap, what we've done to this point is to identify the 109 quarterback seasons posted by players that, like Thigpen, played extensively by their second year in the league. Then we calculated which of those players were most similar to Thigpen. Now, our next step is to look at the development of these similar players.

I sorted my list by similarity scores, then cut it off at the 22 most similar QBs. I wanted to pick the top 20, but Patrick Ramsey and Shaun King, who started in both their first and second years in the NFL, are listed twice, so I added two more. As a proxy for career value, I used Football Outsiders' DYAR (defense-adjusted yards above replacement) metric, prorated for 500 attempts. Sounds complicated, but the scale works just like raw yardage: the higher a player's DYAR, the better.

In this instance, a figure of about 400 DYAR per 500 attempts signifies a playoff-caliber quarterback. There are six players on Thigpen's top-20 comparables that have posted a figure that high, led by Trent Green. So, by my reasoning -- and this is the guts of this whole piece -- you could peg Thigpen's chances of developing into a legit (ie, playoff-caliber) starter at about 30 percent.

Those are actually pretty good odds in player-development terms. The percentages aren't nearly high enough -- and the sample isn't large enough -- to discourage the Chiefs from bringing in another quarterback in the offseason, be it through the draft, a trade or free agency. However, they do suggest that Thigpen has some upside.

Personally, I would be concerned about Thigpen's completion percentage, which ranked 30 out of 32 qualifying quarterbacks in the past season. Among the many bits of information that have resulted from the research by the Football Outsiders/Pro Football Prospectus crew is this: Quarterbacks tend to be accurate or not. It's hard to "coach up" this aspect of a signal caller.

However, when I ran regressions of the different categories in my similarity score scheme against career value, two categories stood out as most important: DVOA and PAA (yards per pass attempt above or below the league average). In those two crucial categories, which track very closely, Thigpen ranked 48th and 49th out of the 110 players ranked. That's fairly encouraging -- he's in the top half. However, it underscores the overall notion that while Thigpen may have some real potential, no one, including the Chiefs, really know what they have in him at this point.

CONCLUSIONS

If the Chiefs bring in another QB, what are the odds that that player develops into a playoff-caliber performer? Fifty-fifty? Worse than that? That's why it doesn't make any sense to me that people approach this Thigpen/QB situation as an either/or proposition. The guy makes squat in salary-cap terms -- keep him and bring in someone else to compete.

Young quarterbacks are rarely a sure thing and there doesn't appear to be a sure thing in this draft. But there will be quality quarterbacks that emerge from this draft class. Whether or not the Chiefs use their first pick on a QB, they do need to take one on the first day of the draft. That player would then battle it out with Thigpen next summer, presumably with a veteran quarterback -- Damon Huard? -- waiting in the wings.

Tyler Thigpen may not pan out as a starting quarterback in the NFL. However, at this point, based on what we saw last season, you can't rule him out just yet.

THE LIST

I'll leave you with the full list of the 109 quarterback seasons used in my Thigpen analysis. The seasons are ranked by DYAR/500 attempts, however the left column lists the similarity ranking to Thigpen's 2008 season. In other words, the #52 ranking next to Peyton Manning's rookie season means that it was the 52nd most-similar season in this sample to Thigpen's 2008 season.

[Full list in a table at the link above]

[Mecca]

He still has horrendous mechanics and no ability to play in a normal offense...30% is being generous when you look at the failure rate of spread QB's in the NFL.

[FringeNC]

Originally Posted by Mecca

He still has horrendous mechanics and no ability to play in a normal offense...30% is being generous when you look at the failure rate of spread QB's in the NFL.

I wouldn't say he has horrible mechanics. He has very inconsistent mechanics, and if that isn't fixed, yeah, he'll never be consistently accurate enough.

[Cheeze529]

Tyler Thigpen has great athletic ability, a strong arm, 24 years old, bad mechanics granted. His mechanics can be fixed with given time, and has three full seasons with KC under his belt while still very young. He may not pan out, but he is worth the risk because of his 'boom' potential. Steve Young, who is somewhat similar to Thigpen athletically, had a horrific first year starting with the Bucs (8 touchdowns, 13 interceptions, 2200 yards) when he was 25 years old, and his career turned out fine. Granted Young had a better pedigree than Thigpen, but the potential is there, I would let Thigpen have an off-season where he is the starter the whole way through, and see what develops, this off-season draft another need and build the team, if Thigpen does not pan out, then you'll have a high draft pick (Bradford, McCoy...) and have a better team for them to thrive in, and hopefully if/when Thigpen pans out then you'll have your quarterback.

[BigMeatballDave]

Originally Posted by Cheeze529

Tyler Thigpen has great athletic ability, a strong arm, 24 years old, bad mechanics granted. His mechanics can be fixed with given time, and has three full seasons with KC under his belt while still very young. He may not pan out, but he is worth the risk because of his 'boom' potential. Steve Young, who is somewhat similar to Thigpen athletically, had a horrific first year starting with the Bucs (8 touchdowns, 13 interceptions, 2200 yards) when he was 25 years old, and his career turned out fine. Granted Young had a better pedigree than Thigpen, but the potential is there, I would let Thigpen have an off-season where he is the starter the whole way through, and see what develops, this off-season draft another need and build the team, if Thigpen does not pan out, then you'll have a high draft pick (Bradford, McCoy...) and have a better team for them to thrive in, and hopefully if/when Thigpen pans out then you'll have your quarterback.

I'm sick of reading stupid shit like this. Learn something about football, then post again, n00B.

[beach tribe]

I love Thigpen. I think he should start the season as the #1 (Unless he just get beaten in camp), and let us see how the O-line is playing. If he plays really well, it will give more time to our future QB to sit, and learn, and also may give us some trade option regarding him. At the very least, he would have gained experience, and would provide us with an excellen #2 QB. Win Win. Here's to you Mr. 7th rnd, skull fuqing, crazy legged QB.

[Cheeze529]

Originally Posted by BigChiefDave

I'm sick of reading stupid shit like this. Learn a something about football, then post again, n00B.

From the tone of your voice, I would assume the only thing you read IS stupid shit like "Derrrr...let's draft a quarterback who has no pro-experience, who is most likely going to be a bust, who is going to hold out, and who is going to ask for money up the ass."

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by BigChiefDave

I'm sick of reading stupid shit like this. Learn a something about football, then post again, n00B.

What stupid shit? It's better than those who think that a man's career should be determined in half a season? He was right on target, except that I disagree that we wait one year on a QB.

[BigMeatballDave]

Originally Posted by beach tribe

I love Thigpen. I think he should start the season as the #1 (Unless he just get beaten in camp), and let us see how the O-line is playing. If he plays really well, it will give more time to our future QB to sit, and learn, and also may give us some trade option regarding him. At the very least, he would have gained experience, and would provide us with an excellen #2 QB. Win Win. Here's to you Mr. 7th rnd, skull fuqing, crazy legged QB.

If we draft Stafford or Sanchez, no way does he beat them out. Their mechanics are far superior. Plus, they can play from under center.

[BigMeatballDave]

Originally Posted by Cheeze529

From the tone of your voice, I would assume the only thing you read IS stupid shit like "Derrrr...let's draft a quarterback who has no pro-experience, who is most likely going to be a bust, who is going to hold out, and who is going to ask for money up the ass."

If you don't take chances, you keep getting the same shit we saw on the field this past season.

[Cheeze529]

Originally Posted by BigChiefDave

If you don't take chances, you keep getting the same shit we saw on the field this past season.

Agreed, just differ on where the chance should be taken this off-season

[BigMeatballDave]

Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501

What stupid shit? It's better than those who think that a man's career should be determined in half a season? He was right on target, except that I disagree that we wait one year on a QB.

Thig lucked into that starting role. His mechanics are shit, he's not worth it. Should he be given a chance to compete in TC? Absolutely.

[blueballs]

Which one got the hotter wife
Tyler's dating models yet

[BigMeatballDave]

Originally Posted by Cheeze529

Agreed, just differ on where the chance should be taken this off-season

Thig isn't gonna get much better.

[Crush]

**** Thigpen

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by BigChiefDave

Thig lucked into that starting role. His mechanics are shit, he's not worth it. Should he be given a chance to compete in TC? Absolutely.

Why does it matter how he got the starting job? Shouldn't it only matter how he performed and what the Chiefs think he is capable of? Why not just cut every 5th, 6th, and 7th round pick on the roster while we're at it.

Thigpen performed decent but he has a lot of holes in his game. He still has upside. Nobody knows how high that ceiling is. A few years ago, a guy named Eli Manning was playing horribly in his rookie season. What did he do? He hired a fundamentals coach to teach him mechanics and he went on to win the Super Bowl soon after. Not saying that Thigpen is Eli Manning, but the point is that the aspects of his game where Thigpen struggles are all coachable. He has a lot of intangibles: decent arm strength, athletic ability, good head on his shoulder, leadership, and seemingly decent smarts that are uncoachable.

I'd like to see what happens if you make an effort to fix those mechanical problems and see how far his upside goes. The great thing about bringing in a new coach and a new GM is that they will both give him a shot to do just that, but neither of them will guarantee that he keeps a starting job all season. But enough with this nonsense that he should be taken completely out of the picture entirely because he wasn't perfect in his first 8 starts or because of his draft status.