Mike Mayock's 10 draft nuggets:

[Deberg_1990]

Courtesy of Peter King..



http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/200...aft/index.html

Ten Nuggets Mined From Mayock

1. "This is by far the worst year for the top 10 that I've seen. Down around 18, 20, you'll get every bit the player you'll get in the top 10 for a third of the price.''

2. His gut feeling is Detroit's taking Georgia quarterback Matthew Stafford with the first pick of the draft.

3. "I can't bang the table for Stafford the way I did for Matt Ryan last year. I don't see an elite player in him every time I watch, which you need to see if you're taking a quarterback that high.''

4. Mayock, if he had his choice of first-round picks for talent and value, would be around 22. "The value in this draft is at 15 and beyond.''

5. He says eight or nine tight ends will be drafted in the first three rounds. He loves the best of the bunch, Oklahoma State's Brandon Pettigrew. (I'd love to see the Bills land him, by the way. Perfect offensive weapon for a coordinator, Turk Schonert, who loves to use the tight end.)

6. He likes Eugene Monroe over Jason Smith, if you're picking a franchise tackle. "Smith's got a better upside. Very aggressive. But Monroe's got the best feet in the draft. He's a really accomplished technician.''

7. He thinks Wake Forest linebacker Aaron Curry -- who Detroit would play at middle linebacker if the Lions made him the first pick of the draft -- would be optimally used at strongside linebacker in the 4-3 because he can cover, he can play physically over the tight end, and he's got upside pass-rushing ability.

8. He's scared of Brian Orakpo, the Texas defensive end who's the apple of a few teams' eyes in the top half of the first round. "Buyer beware,'' Mayock said. "He's boom or bust. I don't know if he's DeMarcus Ware or Vernon Gholston. I've seen him have some really good games, and I've seen what I considered to be Brandon Pettigrew tearing him apart. The point is, I don't see it all the time from Orakpo, which concerns me.''

9. Of the elite quarterbacks, he likes USC's Mark Sanchez the best. "He's the most ready made for the pro game right now.''

10. If you need a cornerback in this draft, sit it out. There are no corners even well above average, never mind great.

A year ago, Mayock told me he liked Ryan, who played four years at Boston College, more than he'd liked any quarterback to come out in years. Not the case with the three early entry passers this year -- Stafford, Sanchez and Kansas State's Josh Freeman. "In the last 15 years, there have been 11 underclass quarterbacks taken in the first round,'' he said. "Of those 11, Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers are the only clear successes. It's a dangerous thing, picking young quarterbacks so high.''

[Saccopoo]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

At least you're reasonable about it.

Saccogoo has become a parody of himself. He's become more inflexible than the people he's arguing against.

C'mon Htis. I'm just trying to have a little fun, and there is no way that I'm as inflexible as the others.

And you know that I would love the possibility of trading down in this draft given the Chiefs situation with the players on the top of the board.

However, I don't necessarily know if Mayock is entirely correct in that there is no top talent in this draft. Last years draft looks quite suspect compared to this one, especially in the tackle and quarterback position. I remember that people around here were just waiting for the opportunity to even have a shot at Oher, and that was even after we drafted Albert.

The three top quarterbacks look quite good, especially when you look at the pre-draft potential of someone like Ryan and Flacco and Russell. Stafford, Sanchez and Freeman all look like upgrades. Add to that that many are touting Curry as the best LB prospect available in a long time, superior interior lineman, particularly centers, edge rushers that easily surpass last years class, etc.

I don't know why everyone around here is having a fit about this being a bad draft. It actually looks like a pretty damn good draft and a deep one at that. The only problem that the Chiefs face is that they have players at the positions that are on the top of the boards, or so I would assume. There's no real dominant 3-4 DE, no pure 3-4 ROLB or no truly dominant 3-4 NT, and that's what the Chiefs would really like to spend that #3 pick on.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by Saccogoo

C'mon Htis. I'm just trying to have a little fun, and there is no way that I'm as inflexible as the others.

And you know that I would love the possibility of trading down in this draft given the Chiefs situation with the players on the top of the board.

However, I don't necessarily know if Mayock is entirely correct in that there is no top talent in this draft. Last years draft looks quite suspect compared to this one, especially in the tackle and quarterback position. I remember that people around here were just waiting for the opportunity to even have a shot at Oher, and that was even after we drafted Albert.

The three top quarterbacks look quite good, especially when you look at the pre-draft potential of someone like Ryan and Flacco and Russell. Stafford, Sanchez and Freeman all look like upgrades. Add to that that many are touting Curry as the best LB prospect available in a long time, superior interior lineman, particularly centers, edge rushers that easily surpass last years class, etc.

I don't know why everyone around here is having a fit about this being a bad draft. It actually looks like a pretty damn good draft and a deep one at that. The only problem that the Chiefs face is that they have players at the positions that are on the top of the boards, or so I would assume. There's no real dominant 3-4 DE, no pure 3-4 ROLB or no truly dominant 3-4 NT, and that's what the Chiefs would really like to spend that #3 pick on.

It isn't a bad draft AT ALL. It's just not the right draft to have the #3 pick. It's one of the deepest defensive drafts in a while, IMO. But we pick 3rd and we need to be picking about 15th.

Stafford and Sanchez are every bit the prospects that Ryan was, but after that there's just not much.

I don't know that Jason Smith is a better prospect than Joe Thomas, who was the last great prospect at LT. Last year's class was deep, but pretty flawed. Jake Long was really better-suited for RT and needed help all year. Clady had to go to a zone-blocking team that had the exact right offense for his skills but lack of strength. Albert did fairly well for being an OG. And the rest of the crop was either hurt or moved around.

The edge rushers in this year's draft aren't great - there's no elite DE in this draft. And there's definitely no premiere 3-4 OLB in this draft. I know you won't agree, but even if Curry was the best ILB prospect in 20 years, he still wouldn't be worth a top 5 pick. And I don't think he's a better prospect than Patrick Willis, who was taken 11th.

[Saccopoo]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

I know you won't agree, but even if Curry was the best ILB prospect in 20 years, he still wouldn't be worth a top 5 pick. And I don't think he's a better prospect than Patrick Willis, who was taken 11th.

I'm just not sold on the "not worth the ... pick" concept. It is what it is. Typically, an ILB, even a great one, is not selected that high. However, there have been plenty of busts at that pick spent on guys whose position supposedly justified the lofty pick. It's rare, but if a team feels like he's the guy, and will be in the top at his position and has a need, it's not a real stretch to get a player generally regarded as "best" even though he doesn't play one of those big money positions.

With regards to Willis, he was the guy I wanted the Chiefs to end up with in the 2007 draft. Didn't happen, and I'm pretty happy that Dwayne Bowe fell to us at 24, and I see the same type of player/contributor in Curry that I saw in Willis. Problem with this draft is, Curry stands out over the others, particularly the defensive players, and I don't think that he'll be there if the Chiefs even trade down to say, the 12 spot. I like the potential of Maualuga, particularly as a Mike in a 3-4, or say Laurenitis as a MLB in a 4-3 (and who knows what the Chiefs end up with), or the potential of Clint Sintim (who looks to be the best all around ROLB in this draft), or the rush potential of a Larry English. However, are they as good as Curry? Probably not, although Sintim comes the closest.

A trade down for picks would be nice, but it's going to hurt missing out on another Pat Willis/Derrick Brooks if Curry ends up playing to the level that everyone is suggesting he can play at - a couple of mediocre players won't make up for a guy like Willis or Brooks. And I understand that the Stafford/Sanchez crowd feels the same way about that with the Cassel situation. I think Cassel has the potential to be a really good quarterback in the league, so I'm not worried about him as much as losing out on the next Pat Willis, especially considering how bad our defense has been in recent years.

[SBK]

Originally Posted by Saccogoo

I'm just not sold on the "not worth the ... pick" concept. It is what it is. Typically, an ILB, even a great one, is not selected that high. However, there have been plenty of busts at that pick spent on guys whose position supposedly justified the lofty pick. It's rare, but if a team feels like he's the guy, and will be in the top at his position and has a need, it's not a real stretch to get a player generally regarded as "best" even though he doesn't play one of those big money positions.

With regards to Willis, he was the guy I wanted the Chiefs to end up with in the 2007 draft. Didn't happen, and I'm pretty happy that Dwayne Bowe fell to us at 24, and I see the same type of player/contributor in Curry that I saw in Willis. Problem with this draft is, Curry stands out over the others, particularly the defensive players, and I don't think that he'll be there if the Chiefs even trade down to say, the 12 spot. I like the potential of Maualuga, particularly as a Mike in a 3-4, or say Laurenitis as a MLB in a 4-3 (and who knows what the Chiefs end up with), or the potential of Clint Sintim (who looks to be the best all around ROLB in this draft), or the rush potential of a Larry English. However, are they as good as Curry? Probably not, although Sintim comes the closest.

A trade down for picks would be nice, but it's going to hurt missing out on another Pat Willis/Derrick Brooks if Curry ends up playing to the level that everyone is suggesting he can play at - a couple of mediocre players won't make up for a guy like Willis or Brooks. And I understand that the Stafford/Sanchez crowd feels the same way about that with the Cassel situation. I think Cassel has the potential to be a really good quarterback in the league, so I'm not worried about him as much as losing out on the next Pat Willis, especially considering how bad our defense has been in recent years.

When you're picking in the top 5 you're looking for someone with a super high ceiling. That's why you get busts.

You don't want players like Tamba Hali, who aren't getting any better than they are now.

And when you pay someone $50,000,000 they can easily get soft.

[Saccopoo]

Originally Posted by SBK

When you're picking in the top 5 you're looking for someone with a super high ceiling. That's why you get busts.

You don't want players like Tamba Hali, who aren't getting any better than they are now.

And when you pay someone $50,000,000 they can easily get soft.

With Curry being the most athletic LB in this draft and one of the most athletic guys in the draft overall (my nod would go to this years physical freak of nature - Connor Barwin), his sound fundamentals and instincts, I think that Curry does have a high ceiling. Higher than a guy like Brown, who looks like he's maxed out his body, or Raji, who's body type just scares the living shit out of me in terms of him being in the league in three years. Orakpo is kinda stuck where he's at if he wants to play as a OLB, but probably could bulk up some to play DE. Kruger looks like a high ceiling guy as well.

I understand that Curry, being stuck in a MLB in a 4-3 won't have the highlights that you'll see from Brown, Orakpo, Maybin and the like. But that doesn't mean that he doesn't have potential. His athleticism, combine numbers and football skills and understanding suggest otherwise.

Hali was probably maxed out in terms of body when he came out of college, but I think he's a decent player because he never gives up on a play and hustles his ass off. That makes up for some sins, and I think if we put him back at LDE in a 4-3 or possibly a ROLB in a 3-4, he should be okay. He doesn't have the first step of a true ROLB, but he's tenacious as hell and has shown that he can get to the quarterback if he has some help, which he should from a RDE.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by Saccogoo

I'm just not sold on the "not worth the ... pick" concept. It is what it is. Typically, an ILB, even a great one, is not selected that high. However, there have been plenty of busts at that pick spent on guys whose position supposedly justified the lofty pick. It's rare, but if a team feels like he's the guy, and will be in the top at his position and has a need, it's not a real stretch to get a player generally regarded as "best" even though he doesn't play one of those big money positions.

The problem with that is that if you use "big money" on guys that play positions that aren't typically big money, you don't have the cap room to get the "big money" players when you need them. The long-term success of a team is about more than just the next 12 months.

[Mecca]

The thing about this being a really bad year to be in the top 10 is why I would openly consider taking a QB.

[SBK]

Originally Posted by Mecca

The thing about this being a really bad year to be in the top 10 is why I would openly consider taking a QB.

That's where I am. I don't even see the LT's being worth the money, as I don't think they're as good of prospects as ours was, that we picked at 15.

The only people I see worth a top 3 pick this year are Stafford and Sanchez--and that don't add up...

[RustShack]

Originally Posted by SBK

That's where I am. I don't even see the LT's being worth the money, as I don't think they're as good of prospects as ours was, that we picked at 15.

The only people I see worth a top 3 pick this year are Stafford and Sanchez--and that don't add up...

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by RustShack

You like the LT's in this draft?

[kcbubb]

I like Monroe. He's a solid player.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by kcbubb

I like Monroe. He's a solid player.

At a position where we have little to no need.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Does anyone ever use deductive reasoning?

If Mike Mayock, a guy who currently isn't employed by any NFL team, and who sees Daniel Graham Pettigrew as a top flight pick, sees that it's a bad year for an uber high pick, and that you can get more value in the late teens, who in the blue hell is going to trade up when this info is so readily available?

Think people. Think.

[milkman]

Originally Posted by Saccogoo

With Curry being the most athletic LB in this draft and one of the most athletic guys in the draft overall (my nod would go to this years physical freak of nature - Connor Barwin), his sound fundamentals and instincts, I think that Curry does have a high ceiling. Higher than a guy like Brown, who looks like he's maxed out his body, or Raji, who's body type just scares the living shit out of me in terms of him being in the league in three years. Orakpo is kinda stuck where he's at if he wants to play as a OLB, but probably could bulk up some to play DE. Kruger looks like a high ceiling guy as well.

I understand that Curry, being stuck in a MLB in a 4-3 won't have the highlights that you'll see from Brown, Orakpo, Maybin and the like. But that doesn't mean that he doesn't have potential. His athleticism, combine numbers and football skills and understanding suggest otherwise.

Hali was probably maxed out in terms of body when he came out of college, but I think he's a decent player because he never gives up on a play and hustles his ass off. That makes up for some sins, and I think if we put him back at LDE in a 4-3 or possibly a ROLB in a 3-4, he should be okay. He doesn't have the first step of a true ROLB, but he's tenacious as hell and has shown that he can get to the quarterback if he has some help, which he should from a RDE.

Eric Hicks hustled his ass off too.

[Dave Lane]

Originally Posted by milkman

Eric Hicks hustled his ass off too.

and he had more sacks in the NFL in one year than Curry had in 4 in college.