Mock (11/13)

[Direckshun]

Let's wheel and deal.

1. The Chiefs are defeated in the Super Bowl by the New Orleans Saints in a shootout. HC Andy Reid and GM Brett Veach are retained, as is DC Bob Sutton.

2. The Chiefs cut S Eric Berry and S Daniel Sorensen.

3. The Chiefs trade OG Luvarney Duvarney-Tardif to your mother's favorite team for a 2020 2nd round pick.

4. The Chiefs extend WR Tyreek Hill for 4 years, $60m.

5. The Chiefs re-sign: WR De'Anthony Thomas to 2 years, $6m; C Jordan Devey to 3 year, $12m; OLB Dee Ford to 5 year, $70m; CB Orlando Scandrick to 1 year, $3m.

6. The Chiefs re-sign to minimal deals: RB Damien Williams, FB Anthony Sherman, TE Demetrius Harris, OG Jeff Allen, DE Jarvis Jenkins

7. The Chiefs tender: WR Marcus Kemp, C Austin Reiter, ILB Terrance Smith, S Jordan Lucas, K Harrison Butker

8. The Chiefs let walk: RB Spencer Ware, WR Chris Conley, C Mitch Morse, DE Allen Bailey, CB Steven Nelson, S Ron Parker

9. The Chiefs sign OT Jake Fisher (Bengals) to 1 year, $4m; DE Henry Anderson (Colts) for 2 years, $12m.

10. The Chiefs are selecting 31st. They are not in the hunt for any compensatory picks.

11. They are in the hunt for as many as 4 compensatory picks in 2020 (Ware, Conley, Morse, Bailey, Nelson).

The Selections:

The Chiefs trade their 1st, the Marcus Peters 2nd, and the Laurent Duvarney-Tardift 2nd in 2020 for the 12th overall selection.
1. CB Trayvon Mullen, Clemson

As with the Breeland Speaks pick, everybody and their mother will call this a reach. As with the Breeland Speaks pick, the Chiefs will have taken someone who doesn't look immediately ready to start. And as with Breeland Speaks, the Chiefs will toss Mullen out there early and often to get him as seasoned as possible for the postseason.

But Mullen is less like Breeland Speaks, and more like Dee Ford. At 6'1", he has the legit potential to run a 4.3, and the Chiefs gotta like his ability to mirror. He will require some sculpting, but the Chiefs have Al Harris, one of the best defensive backs coaches in the NFL. He has gotten the absolute most out of Steven Nelson and Orlando Scandrick. He'll have Mullen playing his best ball by January, which is all this Chiefs team cares about.

2. S Taylor Rapp, Washington

The Chiefs let Berry, Sorensen, and Parker walk in this offseason projection, ostensibly because the Chiefs see Armani Watts as a legit starter in the NFL and their strong performance in much of 2019 without Sorensen or Berry shows that they are simply not valuable enough to justify their contracts, beloved though they are. Jordan Lucas and Eric Murray are good players but best relegated to rotational players, so the Chiefs take a swing in the 2nd on Rapp.

Rapp is utilized in every possible way a safety can play in Washington's defense, and is one of the most pro-ready prospects in the draft. He is technically sound, has a great eye in diagnosing plays, and can play some coverage in the role that Ron Parker has largely failed at this year.

3. DE Corbin Kaufusi, BYU

Get used to seeing this guy's name, as Andy Reid loves kids from this area and Brett Veach, like John Dorsey before him, can be seduced by measurables and a great work ethic. The Chiefs consider trading up for Kaufusi if they have to.

In this hypothetical draft, they don't have to. Kaufusi would be an excellent developmental prospect for Britt Reid, who really has an ability to coach these guys up. Thanks to the acquisition of Henry Anderson, the Chiefs can give Kaufusi a couple years to grow, though he may be pushing for a starter job by the end of the year. What a luxury this coaching staff is.

5. S Antoine Brooks Jr., Maryland

The Chiefs continue the hardcore youth movement at safety. Brooks is undersized by an incredible heavy hitter. He is, essentially, Kurt Coleman.

6. RB Travis Homer, Miami
7. DE Walter Palmore, Missouri

Roster:

QB: Mahomes, Henne, Litton
RB: Hunt, Williams, Homer, Williams
FB: Sherman

WR: Hill, Watkins, Robinson, Thomas, Kemp
TE: Kelce, Harris

LT: Fisher, Fisher
LG: Erving, Allen
C: Devey, Reiter
RG: Wylie, McKenzie
RT: Schwartz, Fisher

DE: Jones, Jenkins
NT: Nnadi, Williams, Palmore
DE: Anderson, Kaufusi

OLB: Ford, Speaks
ILB: O'Daniel, Ragland, Smith
ILB: Hitchens, Niemann
OLB: Houston, Kpassagnon

CB: Fuller, Mullen, Scandrick, Dean, Smith
S: Watts, Rapp, Lucas, Murray, Brooks

K: Butker
P: Colquitt
LS: Winchester

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by kccrow

I think that "give" needs to be Berry. He frees up enough money to pay for one of those guys and since he's rarely on the field, he also opens up a roster spot for someone that is. This team doesn't need All-World safeties, it just needs competent ones as in the past with guys like Abdullah and Coleman.

Reasonable.

I think you're underestimating the impact Eric Berry has on the team, though. (Though keep in mind I actually did cut him in this mock.)

In sports, 1 + 1 doesn't always mean 2. Sometimes the chemistry and leadership among players makes everyone better than the sum of their parts. Putting in two good safeties like, say, Armani Watts and Taylor Rapp, is like adding 1 + 1. You're going to get 2.

Berry changes the math. Berry + any good safety is 1 + 1 = 3, due to his leadership and abilities that make everybody else's job easier. So you're losing a lot more than a guy who happens to be super good.

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by Hoover

You pay Hill.
Tag Ford
Cut Houston after 2019
If Ford stays healthy and produce you give him a contract in 2020.

*I'm not sure any defensive player is worth long term second contracts any more. But with this team, you tag Ford, and put off making that decision and you keep the team in place for next season except for Berry.

What's the track record on teams keeping a player after a year on the tag?

I was about to say it's not good but then realized I don't know the answer.

I think if you put Ford on the tag you make him more expensive in the near term and long term. He costs a shit ton to your cap in 2019, and if he plays amazing, he'll now have 2 years of crazy production to jack up his price rather than just one. This is the most affordable he's going to be, right now.

Just pay him.

[Chargem]

I disagree with the LDT trade, as has already been discussed.

I like drafting safeties based on the cuts you did, but I think actually the Chiefs probably cut no safeties in the off season and then also draft or sign none and roll with Berry, Sorensen, Murray, Watts and Lucas (unless there is some greater issue with Berry's health).

You're very light on corners, especially considering I think you have someone called Dean in there in error (someone you drafted in an old draft but not this one I think?), and also because I don't have any faith in Scandrick to maintain his current level of play.

I agree with you on the ILB position mostly, I think you have to hope/expect Hitchens issues this year to be health/learning the new system related and that he will have a better year next year. If the Chiefs like how O'Daniel improves over this year and for some unknown reason like T Smith still, maybe they stand pat on ILB or maybe they look to add a rotational guy in the 3rd or 4th round.

Also like the Anderson FA signing, honestly never heard of him but looks solid from his PFF grade and like he could hold a starter spot with steady play while you draft a more explosive DE.

If the Chiefs were to sign Ford to a 4 year deal and give Tyreek an extension, what do we think the 2019 cap impact would be? If you assume Tyreeks cap hit in 2019 is $6m and Ford's is $17m, there isn't actually as much room for new FA as I thought on the books. Or would you expect more backloaded deal for Ford?

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Hill will probably be the highest paid WR or damn close to it. That’s just how it works with the superstars when they come up on a contract extension.