Chiefs Run game

[O.city]

Chiefs interior 3 OL going to work here. Watch LG Joe Thuney manage to get his head across and RG Trey Smith with the pop and sustain. pic.twitter.com/0fQf9mQkn9

— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) December 15, 2021

So for the past couple weeks or longer I keep thinking "man, it was one block away from really taking off there".

This seems like an example to me. Blocked it up fine, Brown is just a tick late getting to 5. If he slides off and gets to 5 there, that thing goes for 20.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by O.city

It just always seems like it's one block away.

Now maybe that's just the way these go and it's up to the RB to make that one guy miss, I dunno.

I read an article a couple weeks ago that broke down success rates on run vs. pass plays based on Expected points added and dependent on blocking win rates.

It was really surprising, actually. A perfectly blocked run actually has a GREATER EPA/play than a perfectly blocked pass play. And a poorly blocked run is actually less productive than a poorly blocked pass.

But the rub is how one defined a 'perfectly blocked' play - it's a play where EVERYONE does their job. And that was the major driver in the overall success of passes vs. runs - the perfect block rate for passes was much higher than it was for runs. On something like 5 out of 6 runs, at least one guy fails. It was something like 3 out of 6 on passing plays.

And when a pass is more likely to be successfully blocked and more likely to succeed even if it isn't, then suddenly its obvious why passing is more efficient over large numbers.

But when you watch individual run plays and see just how many are 'one block away' from breaking, you can also completely understand how effective a perfectly blocked run can/should be. So yeah, it's not that surprising that a lot of runs are 1 block away from breaking - but its not unique to the Chiefs. It's that way for virtually every team in the league. If a team could somehow meaningfully improve its perfect block rate on run plays, it may actually have a HUGE competitive advantage.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by wazu

A breakdown of all RBs across the NFL. Darrell Williams needs fewer carries.

I'm still not sure why this isn't just incredibly obvious to everyone that watches the guy.

Yes, there is a SIGNIFICANT difference between Williams and CEH. If CEH just takes what is blocked up for him (and he has for most of the year), this is a credible, above average running game.

If you put Williams behind the same line and with the same blocking, the run game will suck. Hard.

There's NOTHING to support Williams getting more carries. Not one single metric. Not new ones, not old ones, not the eye test. Not a thing says that Darrell Williams is a credible NFL ballcarrier.

He's a good 3rd down back - I'll take that. But that's all he is.

[Hammock Parties]

He's better on power runs where he can move the pile a little.

[DJ's left nut]

Here's that run block win rate article I was talking about:

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-weak-li...sive-line-2021

Lemme know if it's paywalled and I can cull some of the key points from it if anyone is interested.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

He's better on power runs where he can move the pile a little.

Not really. I mean sure, he's better than he is on outside zone runs. But he's not even better than CEH is on power runs.

He's just not a good runner.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I read an article a couple weeks ago that broke down success rates on run vs. pass plays based on Expected points added and dependent on blocking win rates.

It was really surprising, actually. A perfectly blocked run actually has a GREATER EPA/play than a perfectly blocked pass play. And a poorly blocked run is actually less productive than a poorly blocked pass.

But the rub is how one defined a 'perfectly blocked' play - it's a play where EVERYONE does their job. And that was the major driver in the overall success of passes vs. runs - the perfect block rate for passes was much higher than it was for runs. On something like 5 out of 6 runs, at least one guy fails. It was something like 3 out of 6 on passing plays.

And when a pass is more likely to be successfully blocked and more likely to succeed even if it isn't, then suddenly its obvious why passing is more efficient over large numbers.

But when you watch individual run plays and see just how many are 'one block away' from breaking, you can also completely understand how effective a perfectly blocked run can/should be. So yeah, it's not that surprising that a lot of runs are 1 block away from breaking - but its not unique to the Chiefs. It's that way for virtually every team in the league. If a team could somehow meaningfully improve its perfect block rate on run plays, it may actually have a HUGE competitive advantage.

I think it brings to light why it's so important to have a RB that can make a guy miss or break a tackle.

Charles could just do both, or make 3 guys miss and outrun and angle. Kareem would break a tackle.

It's just too hard to completely block it up it seems.

[ChiefsFanatic]

Originally Posted by Deberg_1990

CEH is just 1 block away from taking it to the house every time.

I think you meant CEH is just one block away from being chased down by a linebacker, or defensive end/tackle, or a corner back.

Unless he breaks free inside the 20, he isn't taking anything to the house.



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[O.city]

Here's the thing though, there aren't many dudes in the league that's taking one 80 yards without someone getting an angle on them. Give me a rb with quick burst and great vision. I want 15-20 yard pops with the occasional house job. Guys with the speed to hit home runs tend to swing for the fences trying to hit dingers to much.

I want singles and doubles in the run game consistently.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by O.city

I think it brings to light why it's so important to have a RB that can make a guy miss or break a tackle.

Charles could just do both, or make 3 guys miss and outrun and angle. Kareem would break a tackle.

It's just too hard to completely block it up it seems.

In some ways, though, it also demonstrates how fungible RBs are until they become Jamaal Charles.

A middle of the road back vs. a merely pretty good back likely makes a negligible difference in outcomes.

You pretty much have to get to generational talents or at LEAST All Pro caliber guys before you move the needle beyond merely being dependent on your OL to get any sort of efficiency out of your run game.

[-King-]

Originally Posted by wazu

A breakdown of all RBs across the NFL. Darrell Williams needs fewer carries.

Running back Rushing Yards Over Expected (RYOE) based on player positioning at time of handoff versus run block grade

Not sure what the argument is for feeding Zeke so many touches while he's clearly not 100% pic.twitter.com/1ZmobMudu3

— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) December 14, 2021

One below average RB and one flat out terrible one. Nice.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by -King-

One below average RB and one flat out terrible one. Nice.

I'd say CEH is right at average.

I mean he's ahead of Jacobs, Conner, Harris, Kamara, Barkley, McCaffrey, Ingram, Gaskin, Moss and a few others in terms of yards beyond expected. He's right there with Jones, Henry, Sanders, Gibson and only a hiccup behind Mixon and Elliott.

Now where there's some obvious concern is that there does appear to be a positive correlation between run block grades and the ability to then exceed what's expected. And yeah, that makes some sense - it's easier to create yards when you have a head of steam and you need good blocking to get that.

But there are a lot of RBs in that same tier that perform extremely similarly to CEH in terms of getting yards beyond what's blocked for him. Many of those guys are all guys we'd say are 'good' RBs.

All I'm saying with regards to CEH is that he's not a problem. He's not really an asset to speak of, but he's not what's holding the offense back either. When we drafted him Veach emphasized that we were leaving yards on the field in relation to what was blocked up. Veach got him specifically because he was a guy who was taked what was blocked.

And that's pretty much exactly who he's been. Questionable value with the pick, to be sure, but not a bad player. Just a pretty average one.

[dlphg9]

Brown has to make sure that Kelce is able to handle that DE, because if he can't, then the play gets blown up in the back field. You can't expect Brown to do that and then get the block on #5 and drive him out of the lane. I don't think any lineman can make that block.

CEH is the main reason he didn't break that cuz he can't seem to break a tackle this year. If he breaks that weak ass tackle by 5, then he has a chance to break it. It's what Clyde is now. A guy that requires a perfectly blocked play to succeed.

[DJ's left nut]

The ‘weak ass tackle’ where the dude was standing in his gap, got low and hit him center mass but Clyde’s leg drive and contact balance was strong enough to slide him down and pick up a couple more yards?

Some of you people are just not that bright. You think there are a bunch of dudes able to pick through a line and just truck stick a guy that’s squared up and waiting for them? This ain’t Madden, brah.

[ThyKingdomCome15]

Originally Posted by ChiefBlueCFC

From what I have seen, and I hope this hasn't already been said, but CEH doesn't seem to have the best vision. There are several runs that I've seen that it seems that if he sees the cut back lane sooner he could've broken quite a few for huge gains

I've seen that too. However, I think he's still developing. His second TD run was a sign of things to come. That was an elite run, very Priest Holmes.