Lions cutting Trey Flowers

[The Franchise]

The Lions have informed DE Trey Flowers that he will be released on the first day of the 2022 league year next week. Flowers has been nothing but class in Detroit, a good player hit hard by injuries the past 2 seasons.

— Dave Birkett (@davebirkett) March 10, 2022

[RunKC]

Originally Posted by staylor26

I wouldn’t just assume that we lose Ward.

I think he’s the one guy we keep.

Yeah we need to keep him. Our secondary is basically 2 guys in contract years (Fenton/Thornhill) and Sneed without him.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by BossChief

He will be 29 when the season starts and apart from last year, Trey has been really good every other year for the past 5.

If his price tag is reasonably low, he seems like a perfect 1-2 year reclamation project with high upside. Being he will be released, he also wouldn’t count against the comp pick formula, which is huge in an offseason we will lose Ward, Tyrann, Nnadi, Reed, Pringle and a few others to FA on expired contracts that should all land elsewhere on new deals.

There's some real Ingram potential in him, IMO.

The problem is really that Flowers has had 2 seasons lost to injury rather than Ingrams 1. And when that starts to happen, to whatever those guys are ever 'healthy' again, they've really lost something in the exchange. They never seem to get back to even a reasonable facsimile of what they once were.

I wouldn't be willing to outbid NE for him and NE will probably not have to offer him much more than a couple million.

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by BossChief

He will be 29 when the season starts and apart from last year, Trey has been really good every other year for the past 5.

If his price tag is reasonably low, he seems like a perfect 1-2 year reclamation project with high upside. Being he will be released, he also wouldn’t count against the comp pick formula, which is huge in an offseason we will lose Ward, Tyrann, Nnadi, Reed, Pringle and a few others to FA on expired contracts that should all land elsewhere on new deals.

Agreed.

I'd do this thing, now. If we're going to beef up this DL, we're going to need some solid additions that won't break the bank and, I hope, one big ticket addition.

DeForest Buckner getting cut in San Francisco, maybe?

[DJ's left nut]

Assuming both Flowers and Collins cost the same - who do you take?

I think it's far more likely that Collins makes a meaningful contribution, though I think the change to truly make an impact would be a little higher for Flowers.

With Collins I think you have an 80% chance of getting a valuable rotational box safety and clear upgrade on Sorensen. A 20% chance he's a brokedick.

With Flowers I think you get a 66% chance of a dude that's not healthy enough to mean anything and not effective enough when on the field due to those injuries to matter. That leaves about a 33% chance he's a genuine starting caliber SDE.

Of the two, I prefer Collins. You just can't count on a guy with that kind of bust potential.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

Agreed.

I'd do this thing, now. If we're going to beef up this DL, we're going to need some solid additions that won't break the bank and, I hope, one big ticket addition.

DeForest Buckner getting cut in San Francisco, maybe?

Didn't they trade him to Indy?

You thinking Armstead?

[staylor26]

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

There's some real Ingram potential in him, IMO.

The problem is really that Flowers has had 2 seasons lost to injury rather than Ingrams 1. And when that starts to happen, to whatever those guys are ever 'healthy' again, they've really lost something in the exchange. They never seem to get back to even a reasonable facsimile of what they once were.

I wouldn't be willing to outbid NE for him and NE will probably not have to offer him much more than a couple million.

Then you pay a couple million + 1. He has a connection here in Daley, even though Daley is coaching another position entirely.

Veach gets a lot of credit for what he did for the OL last season, but he didn't get enough credit for the depth he built. That OL was two-deep at every position. Niang, Long, Allegretti, Blythe, and Wylie could have started on other teams.

We need that depth here. I suspect we bring back Ingram, but Ingram has an injury history -- back that position up. We only have one legit backup on the team right now in Danna.

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Didn't they trade him to Indy?

You thinking Armstead?

You are correct -- he was traded to Indy, who may cut him.

[mkp785]

Originally Posted by Dunerdr

If hes healthy he could probably be Clark for less than what we would pay Clark should we retain him.

God. We really need to cut Frank. I'm getting worried that isn't happening....

[ChiefBlueCFC]

two questions: is he cheaper than frank clark? is he better than frank clark?

[The Franchise]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Assuming both Flowers and Collins cost the same - who do you take?

I think it's far more likely that Collins makes a meaningful contribution, though I think the change to truly make an impact would be a little higher for Flowers.

With Collins I think you have an 80% chance of getting a valuable rotational box safety and clear upgrade on Sorensen. A 20% chance he's a brokedick.

With Flowers I think you get a 66% chance of a dude that's not healthy enough to mean anything and not effective enough when on the field due to those injuries to matter. That leaves about a 33% chance he's a genuine starting caliber SDE.

Of the two, I prefer Collins. You just can't count on a guy with that kind of bust potential.

Me personally? I'm going with Flowers.

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Assuming both Flowers and Collins cost the same - who do you take?

I think it's far more likely that Collins makes a meaningful contribution, though I think the change to truly make an impact would be a little higher for Flowers.

With Collins I think you have an 80% chance of getting a valuable rotational box safety and clear upgrade on Sorensen. A 20% chance he's a brokedick.

With Flowers I think you get a 66% chance of a dude that's not healthy enough to mean anything and not effective enough when on the field due to those injuries to matter. That leaves about a 33% chance he's a genuine starting caliber SDE.

Of the two, I prefer Collins. You just can't count on a guy with that kind of bust potential.

DE > S

We have a desperate need for bodies at both positions. Personally, I take the DE.

[staylor26]

There is absolutely no chance that the Colts cut DeForest Buckner

[mkp785]

Originally Posted by ChiefBlueCFC

two questions: is he cheaper than frank clark? is he better than frank clark?

Current Neil Smith is better than Frank Clark.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

DE > S

We have a desperate need for bodies at both positions. Personally, I take the DE.

Sure.

And S > IR

You have to weigh the potential return against the odds of actually getting that.

It's how you calculate the settlement value of a lawsuit. If you have a case with say $10 million in potential damages and a 40% chance of actually winning, you have a case worth roughly $4 million dollars.

If you have a case worth $6 million and an 70% chance of winning, your $6 million case is actually worth roughly $4.2 million (after subtracting the costs of litigation, but now we're going too deep in the weeds).

In other words, the more lucrative case is actually the less 'valuable' one.

In this case you have a DE in Flowers who may be a $10 million player if he hits, but he's 35% likely to be that guy. So he's 'worth' $3.5 million. Whereas in Collins case he may be a $5 million dollar player but he's 80% likely to hit that mark so he's 'worth' $4 million.

Such is my calculus anyway. It's the variation in the figures that creates the question. I'm just saying that when it gets down to it, the latter is the guy I'd rather have with the values that I'm assigning them.