Football Deebo wants $25m/year. Is the WR market broken? - Page 2

Direckshun · 04-15-2022, 09:08 AM

I read this and was talking about this with a friend yesterday.

I entered this offseason finding a way to stomach $20m/year for Tyreek. When the rumblings started to suggest $25m/year, I could barely contain myself. The strain that will put on our cap -- or any team's cap -- to pay that much for a player who can't even make his own plays without a QB getting the ball to him. That is hard to fathom.

$30m/year, though? There's no team with a competent QB in the league that will be able to pay that.

With Deebo set to ask for 25/year, that does suggest that the league could be heading to a place where elite WRs and QBs simply cannot be on the same team anymore. That your best hope is for a WR or a QB who immediately becomes elite on their rookie contract, or in the case of the stupid Bengals, one of each.

Because with Derek Carr going $40m/year, that means you're looking at $60-80m a year being tied up in two players.

How do we see this playing out over the next five years? Is there a WR bubble that's about to burst?

In58men · 04-15-2022, 09:44 AM

It’s not broken if somebody pays him lol.

**notorious** · 04-15-2022, 09:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Simply Red

I was right about Deebo, just wanted to say that.

He is the entire San Fran offense. An absolute beast.

Who knows how long his body will hold up, though.

ChiefAshhole1056 · 04-15-2022, 10:31 AM

I had a similar convo to this the other day with some buddies as well. I phrased it as “is WR becoming a tier-1 contract position like Edge, Lt, and QB?”. With the salary cap there simply just isn’t enough room to take on many “top market deals” at many positions and is it worth it to pay an elite WR like you would an elite pass rusher/protector?

The best way I think we put it was is Jamar Chase more valuable than TJ Watt? Because as it’s developing it looks like Chase will be getting about $30 mil a year by the time he gets his next contract. Now also factor in that Burrow is likely going to cost about $45 mil a year at least as well and it seems like we’re just going to be exposed to a different roster structure where Cincy is going to build around the passing game (assuming they re-sign Higgins as well, but who knows how much he’ll cost).

The closest I can recall to that situation was the Peyton Colts in their prime when both Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne had top of the market salaries (granted both of them were around $10 mil each). I think the WR market in general is breaking and the teams that pay up are going to run into roster issues in the near future. Just too difficult to field a full roster of quality players when a single WR has that big of a piece of the pie.

suzzer99 · 04-15-2022, 10:34 AM

I think it may turn out to be true that when you have Mahomes a superstar WR is a luxury but not a necessity. If we learn how to win with 3-4 very good WRs, that will be much tougher for teams to stop that one star and 3 average at best WRs like we had last year.

Whereas Carr and Tua need superstar WRs that can get open and rack up YAC.

DJ's left nut · 04-15-2022, 10:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by suzzer99

I think it may turn out to be true that when you have Mahomes a superstar WR is a luxury but not a necessity. If we learn how to win with 3-4 very good WRs, that will be much tougher for teams to stop that one star and 3 average at best WRs like we had last year.

Whereas Carr and Tua need superstar WRs that can get open and rack up YAC.

I think this can absolutely be the case. And I think this year, with this division going absolutely insane, is a great year to stress test the theory.

Which is why I have very little interest in trading a 1st for McLaurin or going crazy to move up for a WR. I want to know if we can give Mahomes solid but unspectacular weapons, provide them in depth, and then get a similar level of production to the previous approach.

If so, man we are WAY ahead of the most of the rest of the league. With a QB who's suddenly become priced below market and no need to get into this absolutely insane WR market - we're set to run the show for a bit at that point.

It's an experiment worth trying. And if it doesn't work, next year the cap is cleaner and we can attack FA wideouts a little more.

**The Franchise** · 04-15-2022, 10:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I think this can absolutely be the case. And I think this year, with this division going absolutely insane, is a great year to stress test the theory.

Which is why I have very little interest in trading a 1st for McLaurin or going crazy to move up for a WR. I want to know if we can give Mahomes solid but unspectacular weapons, provide them in depth, and then get a similar level of production to the previous approach.

If so, man we are WAY ahead of the most of the rest of the league. With a QB who's suddenly become priced below market and no need to get into this absolutely insane WR market - we're set to run the show for a bit at that point.

It's an experiment worth trying. And if it doesn't work, next year the cap is cleaner and we can attack FA wideouts a little more.

I really think that's what they're trying to do with this offense. Let Mahomes spread it around to a bunch of different targets and see what that offense looks like.

**Iowanian** · 04-15-2022, 10:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by suzzer99

Hill is getting $24.5M for 4 years, assuming the 4th year on his extension isn't picked up. Just to clarify.

You committed to not posting on CP any longer and were going to pay $1000 to Stevie if you did. Did you do that?

**ptlyon** · 04-15-2022, 10:55 AM

ChiefAshhole1056 · 04-15-2022, 10:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I think this can absolutely be the case. And I think this year, with this division going absolutely insane, is a great year to stress test the theory.

Which is why I have very little interest in trading a 1st for McLaurin or going crazy to move up for a WR. I want to know if we can give Mahomes solid but unspectacular weapons, provide them in depth, and then get a similar level of production to the previous approach.

If so, man we are WAY ahead of the most of the rest of the league. With a QB who's suddenly become priced below market and no need to get into this absolutely insane WR market - we're set to run the show for a bit at that point.

It's an experiment worth trying. And if it doesn't work, next year the cap is cleaner and we can attack FA wideouts a little more.

So with this in mind, I wouldn’t be entirely opposed to passing on WR in the first and just secure 2 WRs later. Not necessarily “alpha” WR1 guys like a lot are hoping for in here but instead solid and dependable options like Alec Pierce and Romeo Doubs.

I think Veach is willing to bet on Mahomes being the best QB in the league and can elevate his options year after year so that there is just continually a rotation of solid receivers being churned out in KC that can leave in the market and get paid an over-inflated contract and from there secure yearly compensatory picks. Same way Juju is here for a short term to get his value back up for his next contract, he can go big up someone else’s salary cap and he would be replaced with another day 2 WR next year.

I’m here for it.

dlphg9 · 04-15-2022, 11:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChiefAshhole1056

So with this in mind, I wouldn’t be entirely opposed to passing on WR in the first and just secure 2 WRs later. Not necessarily “alpha” WR1 guys like a lot are hoping for in here but instead solid and dependable options like Alec Pierce and Romeo Doubs.

I think Veach is willing to bet on Mahomes being the best QB in the league and can elevate his options year after year so that there is just continually a rotation of solid receivers being churned out in KC that can leave in the market and get paid an over-inflated contract and from there secure yearly compensatory picks. Same way Juju is here for a short term to get his value back up for his next contract, he can go big up someone else’s salary cap and he would be replaced with another day 2 WR next year.

I’m here for it.

This is literally the stupidest thing I've ever read. Don't try for a great number 1 receiver, so that you can have a bunch of 3s with a number 2 WR.

Titty Meat · 04-15-2022, 11:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by suzzer99

I think it may turn out to be true that when you have Mahomes a superstar WR is a luxury but not a necessity. If we learn how to win with 3-4 very good WRs, that will be much tougher for teams to stop that one star and 3 average at best WRs like we had last year.

Whereas Carr and Tua need superstar WRs that can get open and rack up YAC.

Pay Stevie the 1k you liar

**The Franchise** · 04-15-2022, 11:13 AM

Samuel wants $25 million a year when he hasn't even played a full season since he's been in the league. I'm going to pass on that.

ChiefAshhole1056 · 04-15-2022, 11:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dlphg9

This is literally the stupidest thing I've ever read. Don't try for a great number 1 receiver, so that you can have a bunch of 3s with a number 2 WR.

Read better. It’s more so betting that you can hit on WR in the mid rounds. Diggs, Kupp, Reek, Keenan Allen, Robert Woods, Tyler Lockett are just a handful of names off the top of my head that are proof that you don’t need to pay a premium for top flight production. I’m saying Pat is someone who can elevate the WRs around him and with that you can take the risk on finding options later in the draft instead of paying MULTIPLE assets just to secure one WR who you feel really good about in the mid-first. Would rather rebuild our Pass Defense with the premium picks and just plan on the best QB in the league to turn your Day 2 pick WRs into studs.

ThyKingdomCome15 · 04-15-2022, 11:33 AM

Not going to lie, I would have paid Tyreek. With that said I love the precedent Andy and Brett have set. We're building a team with a much smarter, methodical approach. We will also win under this standard. When the league witnesses this incarnation unfold they'll be green with envy, barring Bill Belichick and NE. They did it for years this way, along with cheating.

Chiefs Kingdom will be doing cart wheels. Remember we still have the best QB and a top 5 OL, really solid RB core, and lots of speed. We can win with that but in a different way. That's what we're doing.

jettio · 04-15-2022, 11:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by notorious

He is the entire San Fran offense. An absolute beast.

Who knows how long his body will hold up, though.

I always thought that the folks that say Deebo should have had more running plays against the Chiefs in the Super Bowl have no idea how taxing those plays are on a player.

Especially, when Deebo is involved in some serious collisions the more he gets the ball.

Tyreek Hill has incredible stamina for a player with elite speed.

It would be interesting to see the data readouts on the trackers, but my guess is that Tyreek has a lot more time at 80% effort and above during a full game than Deebo Samuel does.

04-15-2022, 09:08 AM
Direckshun __ Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Springpatch Casino cash: $2123447	Deebo wants $25m/year. Is the WR market broken? I read this and was talking about this with a friend yesterday. I entered this offseason finding a way to stomach $20m/year for Tyreek. When the rumblings started to suggest $25m/year, I could barely contain myself. The strain that will put on our cap -- or any team's cap -- to pay that much for a player who can't even make his own plays without a QB getting the ball to him. That is hard to fathom. $30m/year, though? There's no team with a competent QB in the league that will be able to pay that. With Deebo set to ask for 25/year, that does suggest that the league could be heading to a place where elite WRs and QBs simply cannot be on the same team anymore. That your best hope is for a WR or a QB who immediately becomes elite on their rookie contract, or in the case of the stupid Bengals, one of each. Because with Derek Carr going $40m/year, that means you're looking at $60-80m a year being tied up in two players. How do we see this playing out over the next five years? Is there a WR bubble that's about to burst?
Posts: 59,688

04-15-2022, 09:44 AM	#16
In58men I didn’t say mud, I said crud. Join Date: Jan 2012 Casino cash: $-1351974	It’s not broken if somebody pays him lol. __________________ Attendance Chief record 11-9
Posts: 30,786

04-15-2022, 10:31 AM	#18
ChiefAshhole1056 Veteran Join Date: Aug 2015 Location: Austin, TX Casino cash: $6241100	I had a similar convo to this the other day with some buddies as well. I phrased it as “is WR becoming a tier-1 contract position like Edge, Lt, and QB?”. With the salary cap there simply just isn’t enough room to take on many “top market deals” at many positions and is it worth it to pay an elite WR like you would an elite pass rusher/protector? The best way I think we put it was is Jamar Chase more valuable than TJ Watt? Because as it’s developing it looks like Chase will be getting about $30 mil a year by the time he gets his next contract. Now also factor in that Burrow is likely going to cost about $45 mil a year at least as well and it seems like we’re just going to be exposed to a different roster structure where Cincy is going to build around the passing game (assuming they re-sign Higgins as well, but who knows how much he’ll cost). The closest I can recall to that situation was the Peyton Colts in their prime when both Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne had top of the market salaries (granted both of them were around $10 mil each). I think the WR market in general is breaking and the teams that pay up are going to run into roster issues in the near future. Just too difficult to field a full roster of quality players when a single WR has that big of a piece of the pie.
Posts: 1,176

04-15-2022, 10:34 AM	#19
suzzer99 In Search of a Life Join Date: Jan 2010 Location: L.A. Casino cash: $-575716	I think it may turn out to be true that when you have Mahomes a superstar WR is a luxury but not a necessity. If we learn how to win with 3-4 very good WRs, that will be much tougher for teams to stop that one star and 3 average at best WRs like we had last year. Whereas Carr and Tua need superstar WRs that can get open and rack up YAC.
Posts: 28,351	1 1

04-15-2022, 10:55 AM	#23
ptlyon Bono & Grbac wasn't enough Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Sioux City, IA Casino cash: $9463829	Wow! __________________ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Advertise here: $19.99 a month
Posts: 40,656	1 0

04-15-2022, 11:13 AM	#27
The Franchise Most Valuable Villain Join Date: Dec 2006 Casino cash: $2095047	Samuel wants $25 million a year when he hasn't even played a full season since he's been in the league. I'm going to pass on that.
Posts: 92,316	2 0

04-15-2022, 11:33 AM	#29
ThyKingdomCome15 MVP Join Date: Jun 2019 Casino cash: $-469600	Not going to lie, I would have paid Tyreek. With that said I love the precedent Andy and Brett have set. We're building a team with a much smarter, methodical approach. We will also win under this standard. When the league witnesses this incarnation unfold they'll be green with envy, barring Bill Belichick and NE. They did it for years this way, along with cheating. Chiefs Kingdom will be doing cart wheels. Remember we still have the best QB and a top 5 OL, really solid RB core, and lots of speed. We can win with that but in a different way. That's what we're doing.
Posts: 8,640	1 0