Super Bowl Champs Offseason Mock 2.18.23

[kccrow]

Restructures
QB Patrick Mahomes: Restructure of $34.40m roster bonus to signing bonus (-27.52m)
ER Frank Clark: Reduction of 2023 salary from $20.5m to $4.75m fully guaranteed, $1.275m in per-game bonuses, and remaining bonuses for a total cap charge of $16.0m ($7.675m of prorated bonus), and a savings of $12.675m

Extensions
DT Chris Jones: 4-yr/$116.5m extension, $31.5m signing bonus, $69.0m guaranteed at signing, $16.0m 2023 salary to bonus. Cap hits of 21.8, 28.0, 29.0, 32.0, and 34.0. Total contract AAV becomes $28.9m. (-6.50m)
CB L'Jarius Sneed: 3-yr/$42.0m extension, $12.0m signing bonus, $19.5m in total guarantees. Cap hits of 4.17, 11.0, 13.0, 15.0. (+3.0m)

Free Agent Re-signings
LT Orlando Brown, Jr.: 6-yr/$139.5m, $31.25m signing bonus, $65.25m guaranteed at signing (cap hits of 15.5, 18.5, 24.0, 27.0, 26.0, 28.5).
P Tommy Townsend: 4-yr/$12.0m, $2.0m signing bonus, $3.5m guaranteed at signing. (cap hits of 2.0, 2.5, 3.5, 4.0)
WR Justin Watson: 1-yr/$1.22m, $137.5k signing bonus, VSB deal (cap hit 1.08m)
RB Jerick McKinnon: 1-yr/$2.25m deal, $835k signing bonus
DT Khalen Saunders: 1-yr/$1.08m deal
DB Deon Bush: 1-yr/$1.17m deal
FB Michael Burton: 1-yr/$1.17m deal
TE Jody Fortson: ERFA tag 1-yr/$870k
QB Shane Buechele: ERFA tag 1-yr/$870k

Free Agent Additions
DT Greg Gaines (LAR age 26 6'2" 313) 4-yr/$35.0m, $12.0m signing bonus, $14.75m guaranteed at signing (cap hits 6.0, 8.0, 10.0, 11.0)
DT Armon Watts (CHI age 26, 6'5" 298) 2-yr/$5.5m, $1.0m signing bonus, $2.25m guaranteed at signing (cap hits 2.0, 3.5)
WR Ashton Dulin (IND age 25, 6'1" 215) 1-yr/$1.08m
QB C.J. Beathard (JAX age 29, 6'2" 219) 2-yr/$6.50m, $2.0m signing bonus, $3.25m guaranteed at signing (cap hits 2.75, 3.75)

Chiefs Let Walk
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, FS Juan Thornhill, OT Andrew Wylie, DE Carlos Dunlap, DT Brandon Williams, DT Derrick Nnadi, DT Tershawn Wharton, OT Prince Tega Wanogho, WR Mecole Hardman, TE Blake Bell, RB Ronald Jones II, LB Darius Harris, QB Chad Henne (Retired), OG Nick Allegretti

Draft
1(31) WR Tyler Scott, Cincinnati (5'11" 185)
Electrifying receiver in the mold of DeSean Jackson that Reid can use in multiple spots and matchups
2(63) RT Wanya Morris, Oklahoma (6'5" 317)
Athletic tackle with experience on both sides of the line that will help eliminate speed up the arc from the right side
3(95) ER Dylan Horton, TCU (6'4" 275)
Long, bendy edge that plays the run and pass well and can develop as a future starter
4(123) FS Kaevon Merriweather, Iowa (6'0" 212)
Coverage safety with outstanding single-high capabilities in a similar mold to Thornhill
4(134) TE Payne Durham, Purdue (6'5" 255)
Outstanding TE in all facets whose game and physical ability mirror Kelce's coming out of Cincinnati
5(168) DT Dante Stills, West Virginia (6'4" 289)
Disruptive, pass-rushing interior defensive tackle that can be multiple in several alignments
6(198) ER Tavius Robinson, Ole Miss (6'6" 265)
Long, fundamentally sound, and smart defensive end with good linear close to the QB
6(217) CB Nic Jones, Ball State (6'0" 191)
Twitchy corner with the agility to stick with underneath receivers and enough length and speed to carry them deep
6(219) OT Isaac Moore, Temple (6'6" 305)
Another athletic tackle that can develop as a swing reserve and potentially more at LT
7(227) IOL Spencer Anderson, Maryland (6'4" 320)
Mobile tackle that best projects inside that also has starting experience at center
7(251) RB Xazavian Valladay, Arizona State (6'0" 198)
Smooth runner and an extremely talented pass-receiving option out of the backfield to eventually take over for McKinnon
7(257) LB Isaiah Moore, NC State (6'2" 232)
Quick linebacker with a great burst to the ball carrier who's shown aptitude as an attacking player but needs to develop in space

TC Roster
QB: P. Mahomes II, C. Beathard, S. Buechele
RB: I. Pacheco, J. McKinnon, C. Edwards-Helaire, X. Valladay
FB: M. Burton
TE: T. Kelce, N. Gray, P. Durham, J. Fortson
WR: M. Valdes-Scantling, T. Scott, K. Toney, S. Moore, J. Watson, A. Dulin, Ju. Ross, Jo. Ross
OT: O. Brown Jr., W. Morris, L. Niang, I. Moore
IL: J. Thuney, C. Humphrey, T. Smith, D. Kinnard, S. Anderson

ED: G. Karlaftis, F.Clark, M. Danna, D. Horton, T. Robinson, M. Herring, J. Kaindoh
DT: D. Jones, G. Gaines, A. Watts, K. Saunders, D. Stills
LB: N. Bolton, W. Gay, L. Chenal, J. Cochrane, I. Moore
CB: T. McDuffie, J. Williams, L. Sneed, J. Watson, N. Johnson, N. Jones
DB: J. Reid, B. Cook, K. Merriweather, D. Bush

ST: H. Butker, T. Townsend, J. Winchester

[JPH83]

Originally Posted by kccrow

Hmmm.

You'd have, arguably, the best two DTs at their respective positions in the NFL.
3 of the top 4 pass rushers from 2022 back and add a quality day 2 prospect in Horton and a fundamentally sound guy in the 5th.
Also, add a guy that was a quality starter just a year ago (2021) in Watts at DT that showed some pass rush.
Add a pass-rushing DT in Stills to replace Wharton.

I fail to see how it would not improve upon what we had in 2022.

Outside of taking a DE in round 1, I'm not sure what the expectations are.

I feel like you guys might end up disappointed this off-season.

The free agent class is pretty horrendous at DE, so I wouldn't get hopes up of some major play there. The only good DE is Ngakoue. That's the list. If Za'Darius Smith gets cut, you got one there. Both are going to be expensive, most likely. I'd actually offer Minnesota a 4th for Smith with his current deal over the next two years. If they bite, I'd cut Frank Clark. That's about the only thing I could forsee being realistic on the edge.

In either case of keeping Clark or trading for Smith, you aren't locked into taking a round 1 edge rusher. You can take a shot a bit later like I have, and if it doesn't look like it'll work then take one in round 1 next year.

I'm not locked into saying KC has to take a RT in round 1 or 2 either, but I feel like upgrading Wylie is more important than adding an edge. You're not upgrading Wylie in FA. Pick your poison of bring him back or replace him. I like replacing Wylie more than I don't.

As for DT, you can approach it differently but this is a team that has used a more traditional NT and not a guy like Hargrave there. I think Gaines makes the most sense. He's a stud. I think Payne is going to go somewhere to be the guy as a 3-tech. I don't think he's going to want to come to KC to play NT. He's also going to likely get a really big bag of cash.

Altogether, taking a WR is mostly a luxury pick. Smart money says take a RT or DE and worry about WR later. I just think the explosive ability that Scott has is pretty special and I want that on this team.

I'm not as high on Scott as you so I'd be a little disappointed to see us pick him at 31. I'd rdinarily love a WR or any offensive weapon, stacking the offense is my priority. But this year's draft feels way better for DE than WR. I like your DL much more than this years, but I'd be worried the pass rush isn't getting much better. Best case scenario is Horton steps up and offers us a little more speed and Karlaftis takes a step forward, that could work.

I agree that the DE market isn't great but honestly even one of the middling options feels like a worthwhile pursuit. I'd even take an ancient Ingram back.

All that said I really like the Durham, Stills and Valladay picks. I also really like Horton, i just can't decide where I like him in the draft.

[Couch-Potato]

I agree that Scott at #31 feels a bit rich, but here's the deal with this WR class... The top tier guys (Johnston, Addison, Smith-Nijba, & Hyatt) will all be gone by the time we pick. We like speed guys, but probably don't need another slot (Flowers & Downs). So... if you want a speed guy that can play on the outside, and Scott's your guy, then you might have to take him at #31. Especially if he ends up the 2nd or 3rd fastest 40 time at the combine for a WR.

[kozzman555]

Nah i'm with you there kccrow. Now that Mahomes is used to actually looking for the right throw and not just "**** it, Tyreek is down there somewhere", having a good burner like Scott or Hyatt or Jayden Reed that can run those routes will REALLY stress defenses. What do you defend? Pacheco and the run? Scott/Reed/Hyatt going deep? Kelce sitting in zone gaps? Toney/Moore/Ross/Ross doing whatever Andy wants? Our offense, with a solid RT drafted like Morris/Dawand Jones/maybe Duncan or Breeland would be insane.

Our defense would just need to be solid, like top 15, top 20 and we are set. I mean, right now, whats our weak spot in our defense? DE opposite Karlaftis? DT opposite Jones? We can find a DT in free agency and there are several DE's that I like that we can either plug in or develop from the draft. I'm really excited for this offseason and it will just take a couple of FA moves and draft picks to make this team even more of a monster.

[JPH83]

Originally Posted by Couch-Potato

I agree that Scott at #31 feels a bit rich, but here's the deal with this WR class... The top tier guys (Johnston, Addison, Smith-Nijba, & Hyatt) will all be gone by the time we pick. We like speed guys, but probably don't need another slot (Flowers & Downs). So... if you want a speed guy that can play on the outside, and Scott's your guy, then you might have to take him at #31. Especially if he ends up the 2nd or 3rd fastest 40 time at the combine for a WR.

I think it's a reasonable position, so it may depend on what we do with Hardman and MVS. I'd love another speed guy to stress defences, but they also need to be able to get off press to have any use. The speed guys in this draft haven't shown much of that. They may well be able to but I don't know if I'm gambling when our DL and OL still needs a lot of work. If a guy falls to us cool, I'd LOVE a top rookie WR more than just about anything. I just think we're reaching too much, it's bad luck but it's not a good WR draft class, imo

[ntexascardfan]

Originally Posted by JPH83

I think it's a reasonable position, so it may depend on what we do with Hardman and MVS. I'd love another speed guy to stress defences, but they also need to be able to get off press to have any use. The speed guys in this draft haven't shown much of that. They may well be able to but I don't know if I'm gambling when our DL and OL still needs a lot of work. If a guy falls to us cool, I'd LOVE a top rookie WR more than just about anything. I just think we're reaching too much, it's bad luck but it's not a good WR draft class, imo

I'm of the mind to bring Hardman back on a prove it type of deal then chase a WR in next year's draft. Guys like Troy Franklin or Rome Odunze could be there for us at the end of the first.

[Jamie]

Originally Posted by Palangi

And….?

I really hope Reiter isn’t our answer there

At backup center? I know he's not great, but we did win a Super Bowl with him starting. As long as we can stash him on the practice squad for below league minimum I don't know why we wouldn't want to do that.

[JPH83]

Originally Posted by ntexascardfan

I'm of the mind to bring Hardman back on a prove it type of deal then chase a WR in next year's draft. Guys like Troy Franklin or Rome Odunze could be there for us at the end of the first.

Yeah I'm a little more hopeful that Hardman back is possible now at a reasonable cost. In which case I'd do the same as you. I'd probably still take a WR pick.somewhere R2-4 if the right guy fell. But next year might be a better R1 pick.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by Couch-Potato

I agree that Scott at #31 feels a bit rich, but here's the deal with this WR class... The top tier guys (Johnston, Addison, Smith-Nijba, & Hyatt) will all be gone by the time we pick. We like speed guys, but probably don't need another slot (Flowers & Downs). So... if you want a speed guy that can play on the outside, and Scott's your guy, then you might have to take him at #31. Especially if he ends up the 2nd or 3rd fastest 40 time at the combine for a WR.

It might be a tad rich and that's mostly because the only glitch in the matrix for me with him was a higher drop rate this year than last. That said, new QB, new role. I'm guessing he is going to end up the fastest 40 time at the combine and I don't think his 3-cone will be anything to sneeze at either. The one thing is he's played the vast majority of his snaps outside (like 700 to 25 in slot or something like that). He's not a slot WR and that's appealing.

[Couch-Potato]

Originally Posted by kccrow

It might be a tad rich and that's mostly because the only glitch in the matrix for me with him was a higher drop rate this year than last. That said, new QB, new role. I'm guessing he is going to end up the fastest 40 time at the combine and I don't think his 3-cone will be anything to sneeze at either. The one thing is he's played the vast majority of his snaps outside (like 700 to 25 in slot or something like that). He's not a slot WR and that's appealing.

Agreed, I think Zay Flowers plays a bit more on the outside than I thought previously which probably has me boiling down our WR options in the first to Scott or Flowers IMO.

Lots of folks are split on Hyatt, some have him falling all the way to the 3rd due to lack of pro offense and no press coverage tap etc while others believe he's a special weapon that will go in the top 20 of the draft. My thing is that when those mocks happen there's only 1 guy making the decisions, but in the NFL draft there's 32 teams and at least one of them will view Hyatt as a top WR and take him early so I'm not counting on him being available.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by Couch-Potato

Agreed, I think Zay Flowers plays a bit more on the outside than I thought previously and which probably has me boiling down our WR options in the first to Scott or Flowers IMO.

Lots of folks are split on Hyatt, some have him falling all the way to the 3rd due to lack of pro offense and no press coverage tap etc while others believe he's a special weapon that will go in the top 20 of the draft. My thing is that when those mocks happen there's only 1 guy making the decisions, but in the NFL draft there's 32 teams and at least one of them will view Hyatt as a top WR and take him early so I'm not counting on him being available.

A lot of bullshit on Hyatt I've seen so far this year. He could, quite literally, be Jameson Williams' twin. For some reason people think he's not going top 15? Lunacy in my opinion. Same career trajectory, stats, SEC, build, speed, open offense. I just don't get it. I cannot fathom he drops. I'd love for it to happen because KC would swoop him up instantly I'd imagine. I just seems unrealistic. Williams had an ACL and still went 12th. This guy is healthy. And as for this "pro offense" shit, it's about time people just throw that schtick out the window. The NFL mirrors college offensive concepts so much now its ridiculous.

[JPH83]

Originally Posted by kccrow

A lot of bullshit on Hyatt I've seen so far this year. He could, quite literally, be Jameson Williams' twin. For some reason people think he's not going top 15? Lunacy in my opinion. Same career trajectory, stats, SEC, build, speed, open offense. I just don't get it. I cannot fathom he drops. I'd love for it to happen because KC would swoop him up instantly I'd imagine. I just seems unrealistic. Williams had an ACL and still went 12th. This guy is healthy. And as for this "pro offense" shit, it's about time people just throw that schtick out the window. The NFL mirrors college offensive concepts so much now its ridiculous.

I dunno, I mean he ran like a million go routes didn't he? Did he get pressed? Ever? Is there any evidence he can stop half as well as he starts? Williams to me looked way less linear.

I don't think he's the same athlete as Williams, but maybe it just doesn't matter. If he's as quick as predicted, and I could believe it, I think my concerns (is he just a straight line guy, can he beat press) may not be an issue with Reid scheming for him. I mean I thought the same way about Christian Watson last year and got that wrong, and Hyatt has much better hands.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by JPH83

I dunno, I mean he ran like a million go routes didn't he? Did he get pressed? Ever? Is there any evidence he can stop half as well as he starts? Williams to me looked way less linear.

I don't think he's the same athlete as Williams, but maybe it just doesn't matter. If he's as quick as predicted, and I could believe it, I think my concerns (is he just a straight line guy, can he beat press) may not be an issue with Reid scheming for him. I mean I thought the same way about Christian Watson last year and got that wrong, and Hyatt has much better hands.

A couple things here you've hit on.

1. Yeah, he ran a pretty limited tree in college. Doesn't mean he won't get coached up there. Most collegiate WRs aren't "great" route runners. He's no exception. He might even be a bit behind in that category.

2. He's fast, fast. So yeah it's not really going to matter on a lot of issues. If he stays healthy and refines his route running, it's just going to make him that much more dangerous and he's already dangerous. He only has one year of starting experience. He's going to get better. That's the plus Christian Watson had, he was going to refine alot. Watson probably goes alot higher last year if he had a better level of competition and didn't show questionable hands on tape and at the combine.

3. He will lose to press if he's exposed to it and they can actually get the jam on him, sure. So he's a Z/Slot receiver. Don't think that's a big deal. For Andy Reid, those two positions are pretty interchangeable as he has them motioning and moving the defense all the time anyhow.

At the end of the day, the guy was the best WR in college football this year and has the potential to get exponentially better. His floor seems to be Will Fuller ability. Just have to hope he exceeds Will Fuller health.

[Couch-Potato]

I would add that I think the talk on Hyatt is that he's a unique weapon but he might not a complete WR, that you have to scheme him open. But, that's just fine for Andy, he loves scheming mis-matches and getting guys with unique tools the ball. I'd be stoked if he fell to us at #31 and we took him.