Your Best-Guess Realistic Chiefs Mock

[kccrow]

Give me your best guess at what you think the Chiefs will do. Try to take away personal favorites and focus on schematic fit and reach beyond current holes to also consider 2024 holes. Looking for through the 4th round.

[kccrow]

I'm going to stick with the consensus here in round 1. Here's my stab.

1. OT Anton Harrison, Oklahoma (move up)
I do think, at the end of the day, Andy Reid is going to want some "permanence" to his OT group and I don't think he can have that feeling with the RT situation. You just go back to his old quote: "I want two offensive tackles, a quarterback, two pass rushers, two corners, and I'll figure the rest out." Well, he might have LT or RT figured out with Jawaan Taylor. I think he wants another supreme pass blocker to keep Mahomes from running for his life. He has his starters at the other cornerstones locked in for 2023.

2. DT Zacch Pickens, South Carolina
He's too much like Fletcher Cox and Devonte Wyatt (Chiefs scouted him heavily last year) for me to feel like he's not pretty high on Veach's board. He played primarily 1-tech at SC and he can move around, so he's going to have quite a bit of appeal here. Yes, I'm incredibly high on him but I also think he's as much a Veach type as there could be at the position.

3. WR Jayden Reed, Michigan State
Veach has masked his true intentions at WR over the past several drafts and I think he's likely to do so again. We all see the need for a bit more explosion at WR with the ability to beat man coverage and Reed certainly has that. He's not the bigger-bodied guy the Chiefs have been reported to have been scouting but he definitely fits Reid's style more.

4. CB Rejzohn Wright, Oregon State
Wright is definitely a schematic fit for KC's defense as a physical press-man corner with decent recovery speed. He happens to be a bit more grabby than I prefer but that hasn't deterred Veach and Spags from deploying those types here over the past several years.

5. RB Sean Tucker, Syracuse
Tucker is far too much like Shady McCoy for me to ever discount him. He's a good runner between the tackles and a good receiver out of the backfield. He has just enough speed to reach the corner on outside zone and to take one the distance but he's not a track star. He's going to have to learn to pass block though at a much higher level.

6. DE Tavius Robinson, Mississippi
This might feel like too long to wait at DE, and I'd strongly consider Isaiah McGuire in the conversation in the 3rd. That said, Robinson fits the length profile Spags employs and he's got solid bend and strength at the point. His experience lining up as a 4i/5 in a 3-4 is going to be helpful in transitioning to this defense. I don't see a better pure fit in this draft on day 3.

6. DT Dante Stills, West Virginia
His dad starred for KC so if he's around late then I think he's definitely going to be on the radar. Veach has scouted him and several of his type, such as Deslin Alexandre, so I think an undersized rotational pass-rushing DT is going to be in the cards. Stills just makes the most sense.

7. OL Jerome Carvin, Tennessee
Carvin's experience at both guard spots and center in college is a huge draw when looking at a depth player. I think KC goes to the Tennessee well again for an offensive lineman and gets an experienced player that's a really solid pass blocker.

7. TE Leonard Taylor, Cincinnati
The Chiefs don't really need a TE but the reality is that Taylor could knock both Bell and Fortson out of a job if he pans out. He's a good blocker and a solid situational receiver. I don't think you're looking for much more than that type at this stage of the game anyhow.

[GloucesterChief]

Originally Posted by Dante84

I do think we go with an OT, to start at RT with LT upside.

The most important task in all of sports is to keep Patrick Mahomes healthy through his prime. Everything else is secondary to that. And Niang all season, with no real alternative, is a bright red flag.

We gambled last year with Wylie and schemed around OBJ. This year, Veach has the chance to slam the door shut on OL issues (barring injuries). Does it require we use #31? No. But I think Veach probably has a short list of targets for Thursday/Friday, and will pull the trigger if one is in range or available when we select.

I think Duncan would be the best fit for what you are looking for. RT that perhaps could shit to LT if needed.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by GloucesterChief

I think Duncan would be the best fit for what you are looking for. RT that perhaps could shit to LT if needed.

We don't want any shit to LT going on here.

[bigjosh]

If i had to guess, there is a less than 30% chance of veach picking at 31.

I think we are going to see veach masterclass his way into the top 20 to get a year one offensive impact player.

I think we end up with either

-Quentin Johnston
-JSN
-Dalton Kincaid
-Michael Mayer

[Stryker]

Originally Posted by bigjosh

If i had to guess, there is a less than 30% chance of veach picking at 31.

I think we are going to see veach masterclass his way into the top 20 to get a year one offensive impact player.

I think we end up with either

-Quentin Johnston
-JSN
-Dalton Kincaid
-Michael Mayer

I love everyone's input but, I am hoping for this. I really believe this is what is going to happen. I can see Veach moving up to get his guy and not standing pat to see what is available at 31.

[kozzman555]

Originally Posted by kccrow

We don't want any shit to LT going on here.

I didn't want to quote your whole post here, but I saw your comment on RB Sean Tucker. It was my understanding he was actually a track star. Didn't he win the 55m, 100m and 200m in High School? He isn't Tyreek Hill, but the dude is fast. His big knocks are that he didn't really get used much in the passing game and his poor pass blocking.

[Wilson8]

Most of you already have a pretty good idea of what the Chiefs needs are, but the info below with contract info might show needs for 2023 and 2024.

We really need DL help. Backup QB. RB need is a given. I'd like to see a TE taken but if you look at the numbers we could get by another year without one.

QB (3)
Patrick Mahomes - ’23 - $39,693,381, ’24 - $46,693,381, ’25 - $48,693,381, ’26 - $44,350,000, -continued to ‘31
Shane Buechele - $940K Base, $940K Cap Hit. $0 Guaranteed
Chris Oladokun - $750K Base, $750K Cap Hit. $0 Guaranteed
Retired – Chad Henne

RB/FB (3)
Isiah Pacheco - ’23 - $889,777 Cap Hit, ’24 - $1,004,777 Cap Hit, ’25 - $1,119,777 Cap Hit.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire - $1,985,670 Base, $3,443,229 Cap Hit. $1,219,944 Guaranteed, $2,577,503 dead $ to cut
La’Mical Perine - $940K Base, $940K Cap Hit. $0 Guaranteed
FA – Jerick McKinnon, Michael Burton (signed with Broncos), and Ronald Jones (signed with Cowboys),

WR (11)
Marquez Valdes-Scantling ’23 - $11M Cap Hit, ’24 - $14M Cap Hit,
Skyy Moore - ’23 - $1,466,024 Cap Hit, ’24 - $1,759,229 Cap Hit, ’25 - $2,052,434 Cap Hit.
Kadarius Toney – ’23 - $1,907,228 Cap Hit, ’24 - $2,530,842 Cap Hit
Richie James - $1,080,000 Base, $152,500 Signing Bonus, $1,092,500 Cap, $552,500 Guaranteed
Justin Watson – 2 year $3.5M. $1.4M Guaranteed, $2.5M incentives
Justyn Ross - $750K Base, $750K Cap Hit. $0 Guaranteed
John Ross - $1,080,000 Base, $940K Cap Hit. $0 Guaranteed
Ty Fryfogle - $750K Base, $750K Cap Hit. $0 Guaranteed
Cornell Powell - $870K Base, $870K Cap Hit. $0 Guaranteed
Ihmir Smith-Marsette - $940K Base, $940K Cap Hit. $0 Guaranteed
Jerrion Ealy - $750K Base, $750K Cap Hit. $0 Guaranteed
FA - JuJu Smith-Schuster (signed with Patriots), Mecole Hardman (signed with Jets), and Marcus Kemp (signed with Commanders)

TE (6)
Travis Kelce - ’23 - $14,801,944 Cap Hit, ’24 - $15,551,944 Cap Hit, ’25 - $19,801,944 Cap Hit.
Noah Gray - ’23 - $1,018,445 Cap Hit, ’24 - $1,133,445 Cap Hit
Kendall Blanton $1,010,000 Base, $1,010,000 Cap Hit. $0 Guaranteed
Matt Bushman - $750K Base, $750K Cap Hit. $0 Guaranteed
Jody Fortson – $940K Base, $0 guarantee
Blake Bell - $1,165,000 Base, $940K Cap Hit, $0 Guaranteed

OL (10)
Creed Humphrey - ’23 - $1,517,784 Cap Hit, ’24 - $1,770,748 Cap Hit
Lucas Niang - ’23 - $1,321,668 Cap Hit
Trey Smith - ’23 - $972,676 Cap Hit, ’24 - $1,087,676 Cap Hit
Joe Thuney - ’23 - $22,116,250 Cap Hit, ’24 - $22,616,250 Cap Hit, ’25 - $22,616,250 Cap Hit.
Jawaan Taylor - ‘23 - $5.825M Cap, ’24 - $24.725M Cap, ’25 - $24.725M Cap, ‘26 - $24.725M Cap.
Nick Allegretti - $2,430,000 Base, $152,500 Signing Bonus, $1,232,500 Cap Hit, $2,430,000 Guaranteed
Prince Tega Wanogho - $940,000 Base, $400K Signing Bonus, $500K Roster Bonus, $25K Workout Bonus, $1,865,000 Cap Hit, $750K Guaranteed
Darian Kennard - ’23 - $959,601 Cap Hit, ’24 - $1,074,601 Cap Hit, ’25 - $1,189,601 Cap Hit.
Mike Caliendo - $750K Base, $750K Cap Hit. $0 Guaranteed
Austin Reiter - $1,080,000 Base, $940K Cap Hit. $0 Guaranteed
FA - Orlando Brown Jr (signed with Bengals) and Andrew Wylie (signed with Commanders)

DE (5)
George Karlaftis - ’23 - $2,712,608 Cap Hit, ’24 - $3,255,130 Cap Hit, ’25 - $3,797,652 Cap Hit.
Charles Omenihu – ‘23 - $4,850,000 Cap, ‘24 - $11,150,000 Cap.
Mike Danna - ‘23 - $2,808,915 Cap Hit
Malik Herring - $870K Base, $8,334 Signing Bonus, $878,334 Cap Hit
Joshua Kaindoh - $940K Base, $124,836 Signing Bonus, $1,064,836 Cap. $0 Guaranteed, $249,672 Dead Money if cut
FA – Frank Clark ($7,675,000 dead money) and Carlos Dunlap

DT (7)
Chris Jones - ’23 - $28,291,668 Cap Hit
Tershawn Wharton - $1,010,000 Base, $500K Signing Bonus, $425K Roster Bonus, $90K Workout Bonus, $1,725,000 Cap Hit, $850K Guaranteed, $2,025,000 Total
Derrick Nnadi - 1,080,000 Base, $152,500 Signing Bonus, $1,092,500 Cap Hit, $1,092,500 Guaranteed, $1,232,500 Contract Value
Daniel Wise - $940K Base, $940K Cap Hit. $0 Guaranteed
Danny Shelton - $1,165M Base, $940K Cap Hit. $0 Guaranteed
Byron Cowart - $1,080,000 Base, $940K Cap Hit, $0 Guaranteed
Phil Hoskins - $940K Base, $940K Cap Hit. $0 Guaranteed
FA – Khalen Saunders (signed with Saints), Brandon Williams

LB (6)
Nick Bolton - ’23 - $1,591,102 Cap Hit, ’24 - $1,856,286 Cap Hit
Willie Gay Jr - ’23 - $1,677,151 Cap Hit
Leo Chanel - ’23 - $1,146,569 Cap Hit, ’24 - $1,375,883 Cap Hit, ’25 - $1,605,197 Cap Hit.
Drue Tranquill - $1,010,000 Base, $1,440,000 Signing Bonus, $510K Roster Bonus, $40K Workout Bonus, $3,000,000 Cap Hit, $2,450,000 Guaranteed
Jack Cochrane - $870K Base, $870K Cap Hit. $0 Guaranteed
Cole Christiansen - $940K Base, $940K Cap Hit. $0 Guaranteed
FA – Darius Harris not tendered

CB (6)
L'Jarius Sneed - ’23 - $2,901,580 Cap Hit Could trade and save $2.74M
Trent McDuffie - ’23 - $3,180,110 Cap Hit, ’24 - $3,816,132 Cap Hit, ’25 - $4,452,154 Cap Hit.
Joshua Williams - ’23 - $1,036,565 Cap Hit, ’24 - $1,151,565 Cap Hit, ’25 - $1,266,565 Cap Hit.
Jaylen Watson - ’23 - $891,342 Cap Hit, ’24 - $1,006,342 Cap Hit, ’25 - $1,121,342 Cap Hit.
Decaprio Bootle - $940K Base, $940K Cap Hit. $0 Guaranteed
Nazeeh Johnson - $870K Base, $870K Cap Hit. $0 Guaranteed

S (4)
Justin Reid - ’23 - $12,700,000 Cap Hit, ’24 - $14,250,000 Cap Hit,
Bryan Cook - ’23 - $1,328,896 Cap Hit, ’24 - $1,594,675 Cap Hit, ’25 - $1,860,454 Cap Hit.
Mike Edwards - $1,080,000 Base, $1,400,000 Signing Bonus, $500K Roster Bonus, $20K Workout Bonus, $2,882,353 Cap Hit, $2,480,000 Guaranteed
Deon Bush $1,165,000 Base, $152,500 Signing Bonus, $1,092,500 Cap Hit. $350K Guaranteed
FA - Juan Thornhill (signed with Browns)

ST (3)
K Harrison Butker - ’23 - $5,105,267 Cap Hit, ’24 - $4,568,797 Cap Hit
P Tommy Townsend - $2,627,000 Base, $2,627,000 Cap Hit, $0 Guaranteed
LS James Winchester - ’23 - $1,320,000 Cap Hit

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by kozzman555

I didn't want to quote your whole post here, but I saw your comment on RB Sean Tucker. It was my understanding he was actually a track star. Didn't he win the 55m, 100m and 200m in High School? He isn't Tyreek Hill, but the dude is fast. His big knocks are that he didn't really get used much in the passing game and his poor pass blocking.

Yeah, I think one outlet put out he was a high-school track guy but so too is every RB on the planet. I was curious about his speed because he looks 4.50 on tape but then you have him posting his own workout on Twitter and it's 4.33-4.39. I have a tough time believing 4.3x. He's faster than a lot of backs but he doesn't look that fast. In any event, you can see on tape what he is/isn't.

No, there is no knock about his use in the passing game. He was one of the higher-used pass-receiving backs in the country the past couple of seasons. He also runs good routes out of the backfield and is pretty sure-handed.

The issue is definitely pass-blocking but so few college players are good pass blockers so I'm not sure its going to be a major strike.

The big worry is why was he medically red-flagged at the combine. It's why I've been hesitant putting him in any mocks. I'm just operating under the assumption that he's well enough.

[Chris Meck]

Man, it's just so difficult this year. More than most. You can't get a good feel for where guys are going to go at all.

I'm seeing Foskey anywhere from 20's to 60's. Hyatt from teens to 40's. It's just so weird.

[Wilson8]

1.31 Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma - start at LT or RT. Protect Patrick.
2.63 Keeanu Benton, DT, Wisconsin - start next to Chris Jones
3.95 Isaiah McGuire, DE, Missouri - rotate with Karlaftis, Omenihu, & Danna
4.122 Parker Washington, WR, Penn State - MVS, Moore, Toney, Watson, and James.
4.134 Luke Schoonmaker, TE, Michigan - Kelce, Gray, Fortson & Bell will be an interesting camp and preseason.
5.166 Mekhi Garner, DB, LSU - can play Safety or CB
6.178 Eric Gray, RB, Oklahoma - Pacheco, CEH, and re-sign McKinnon
6.217 Clayton Tune, QB, Houston - compete for backup QB
7.249 Mohamoud Diabate, LB, Utah - compete at LB
7.250 Xazavian Valladay, RB, Arizona State - probably goes earlier in draft but could help the Chiefs at RB.

[kccrow]

Going to make one little switch to mine swapping in Rice in 2 and moving Pickens to 3...

1. OT Anton Harrison, Oklahoma (move up)
2. WR Rashee Rice, SMU
3. DT Zacch Pickens, South Carolina
4. CB Rejzohn Wright, Oregon State
5. RB Sean Tucker, Syracuse
6. DE Tavius Robinson, Mississippi
6. DT Dante Stills, West Virginia
7. OL Jerome Carvin, Tennessee
7. TE Leonard Taylor, Cincinnati

I am concerned with dropping Pickens that low. I think my 3b would be Cameron Young, Miss St. He's the exact type of DT Veach would seem to want at NT. Pickens is a little more 3-tech but damn he's alot like Cox.

[Couch-Potato]

1. OT Harrison
2. DE Hall
3. WR Palmer
4. DT Roy
4. TE Shoomaker
5. RB Tucker
6. WR Ford-Wheaton
6. DL Stills
7. FB Luepke
7. DB Scott

[Direckshun]

What I think the Chiefs will do:

* they will move up for WR Zay Flowers, giving up something like a 2nd day pick and a 2024 2nd day pick
* with our remaining 2nd day pick, they're going to take a DL they love. Gervon Dexter makes a lot of sense as DT talent, because the Chiefs badly need DT help for 2024 and beyond.

* I suspect they'll build up the trenches some early on the 3rd day. I think Andre Carter is going to tumble pretty hard on draft day, and if he's there in the 4th, he is a perfect Veach pick for a Spags end. I'd keep my eye on Jacqueline Roy out of LSU at DT, and if there's a hyperathlete in the secondary, I think they go for one or two of those.

* there will be a value pick somewhere at RB on the third day

* the very last picks of the draft will all be Toub guys, so I suspect LBs and DBs.

In practice, this would look like:

1. WR Zay Flowers, Boston College
3. DT Gervon Dexter, Florida
4. DE Andre Carter, Army
4. DT Jaqueline Roy, LSU
5. RB Israel Abanikanda, Pittsburgh
6. CB Jaylon Jones, Texas A&M
6. LB Anfernee Orfi, Vanderbilt
7. S AJ Finley, Ole Miss
7. FB someone

====

QB: Mahomes, Gabbert, Buechele
RB: Pacheco, McKinnon (re-sign!), Edwards-Helaire, Abanikanda
RB: some dude

WR: Toney, Valdez-Scantling, Flowers, Moore, Watson, James
TE: Kelce, Gray, Fortson, Bell

LT: Taylor, Thuney
LG: Thuney, Allegretti
C: Humphrey, Allegretti, Reiter
RG: Smith, Allegretti, Kinnard
RT: Niang, Wanogho

DE: Omenihu, Carter, Kaindoh
DT: Jones, Wharton
DT: Nnadi, Dexter, Roy
DE: Karlaftis, Danna

WLB: Gay, Tranquill, Orfi
MLB: Bolton, Tranquill
SLB: Chenal, Tranquill, Cochrane

CB: Sneed, McDuffie, Watson, Williams, Jones, Johnson
S: Reid, Edwards, Cook, Bush, Finley

K: Butker
P: Townsend
LS: Winchester

[kccrow]

I think no OLine is a mistake Direckshun, especially considering Veach has mentioned the depth there at minimum a couple of times. I don't think he's going to go all out or anything but I think there will be at least one pick somewhere and I'd lean heavily towards OT and then an IOL that can flex to OC.

[Dante84]

Originally Posted by kccrow

I think no OLine is a mistake Direckshun, especially considering Veach has mentioned the depth there at minimum a couple of times. I don't think he's going to go all out or anything but I think there will be at least one pick somewhere and I'd lean heavily towards OT and then an IOL that can flex to OC.

Agreed on OT; I feel okay on IOL. Allegretti can swing, Kinnard after him.

But I have zero faith in our #2 tackle spot. Niang/Geron/Kinnard is just not a plausible setup going into the season.