Chiefs The Kansas City Chiefs are the luckiest good team ever - Page 2

**Donger** · 12:35 PM

https://www.cnn.com/2024/12/12/sport...spt/index.html

I am a Buffalo Bills fan and watching the Kansas City Chiefs this year has been downright painful. They seemingly pull victories out of nowhere. The Chiefs have a) won a game on a last-second field goal block and b) won a game on a last-second field goal that hit the upright and went in.

It just always seems the ball bounces Kansas City’s way, as they’ve gone 12-1 through their first 13 games.

After looking into it, the Chiefs, it turns out, are the luckiest 11+ win team through 13 games in the Super Bowl era. History says that probably makes them less likely to win the Super Bowl, but the sad part for me as a Bills fan is that history also says their luck may never run out.

What do I mean?

Let’s start with simple math. The Chiefs have only outscored their opponents by 56 points over the course of the season. In the average game, they’ve won by a little over four points.

I decided to look back at every team who won at least 11 of their first 13 games since the first Super Bowl season (1966-67). By my count, there have been 107 of these teams.

The Chiefs rank 107th of 107 in terms of point differential – points scored minus points given up. That is dead last in the Super Bowl era.

This year alone, the Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles – both sitting at 11-2 on the year – have outscored their opponents by 99 and 108 points respectively. The 12-1 Detroit Lions have scored 183 points more than the opposition, which is more than three times as much as the Chiefs.

The Chiefs have seemingly been extremely lucky. Take the last five games as an example: they’ve won four games by scores of two points (vs. the Denver Broncos), three points (against the Carolina Panthers), two points (vs. the Las Vegas Raiders) and two points (against the LA Chargers). They also suffered their one loss of the season by nine points to my Bills. All told, they’ve broken even on point differential and somehow come out with a record of 4-1.

This might be the point where you’d expect me to say that the Chiefs’ luck is about to run out. After all, I’m a Bills fan and I hope it does run out.

Well, it is more likely to be the case that the Chiefs don’t win a Super Bowl, but that’s not a guarantee.

I cracked the numbers thanks to my friend and sports genius Neil Paine. Among the 11+ win teams with the 25 best point differentials historically, 36% won the Super Bowl. Among the 11+ win teams with the 25 worst point differentials, 12% of them won the Super Bowl.

This is the good news for folks like myself.

The bad news can be seen by looking at the New England Patriots.

The 2003 Patriots are the team with the second-worst point differential among those that won at least 11 of their first 13 games. They outscored their opponent by a mere 60 points, or a little less than five points per game.

The ‘03 Patriots would go on to win the Super Bowl with a playoff run in which they won the average game by a little over five points.

The 11+ win team with the best point differential to this point? The 2007 Patriots, who had outscored their opponents by an incredible 281 points – or 22 points per game – to this point. They won every game until they lost the Super Bowl.

This fascinated me because I expected a stronger connection between point differential and a team’s fate. I thought maybe I was missing something like the strength of a team’s opponent.

The 2024 Chiefs, after all, have played a relatively weak schedule. Their average opponent has won just 46% of its games, while the average team overall has won 50% of its games. Again, with the help of my friend Neil, I was able to look at this factor.

It turns out that winning by a lot versus good teams as compared to bad teams doesn’t really tell us much about a team’s Super Bowl aspirations, once you look only at 11+ win teams.

Among eventual Super Bowl winners who had won 11+ games at this point and had a point differential in the top half among all 11+ game winners, the average opponent had won 45% of all games. Among those who didn’t win the Super Bowl, the average opponent had won 44% of all their games.

Perhaps, the fact that the Chiefs have been so lucky and could easily continue to be lucky shouldn’t be so surprising to me. It’s not like the Chiefs tore it up last year. They had a worse point differential than every team they beat in the postseason.

Still, the stats are on my side and their luck will probably run out. But given the sometimes magic and sometimes depressing unpredictability of sports, I’m not sure I feel so secure about that, however.

**Donger** · 12-12-2024, 12:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by George Liquor

Gotta keep up with appearances.

Don;t hate me because I'm beautiful.

**New World Order** · 12-12-2024, 12:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by notorious

Holy shit Donger made a football post.

And of course it’s a post criticizing our Chiefs!!!

PatMahomesIsGod · 12-12-2024, 12:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by New World Order

And of course it’s a post criticizing our Chiefs!!!

It’s a pretty pro-Chiefs statistical analysis looking beyond our low point differential, actually.

Solid 65% chance Andy and Spags are keeping their powder dry from the playoffs. 35% were just marginally better and luck could run out in the playoffs.

staylor26 · 12-12-2024, 12:43 PM

People keep doing this not realizing that the "luckiest team ever" just recently added Pacheco, Omenihu, and Humphries, with Hollywood, Nelson, and possibly Watson returning too.

The fact that this "luckiest team ever" is adding all of that talent this late in the season should scare everybody, not make them feel any better.

saphojunkie · 12-12-2024, 12:45 PM

Luck, was it, when Leo Chenal blasted through a weak lineman he'd been owning all game to block the field goal?

Luck, when the hardest working front office in the NFL had a kicker they'd already scouted on speed dial when their kicker went down?

Luck when they had ANOTHER kicker who had already played for them ready to go in case of emergency?

Was it luck when a team fighting for the worst record in the league couldn't mount a comeback with their backup up quarterback? Luck that a bad team played bad?

Luck that a backup tight end couldn't make an EXCEPTIONAL play?

Luck is the wind picking up at the right moment.

Luck is great players having freak accidents. Luck is the unexpected happening without provocation or reason.

Skill is repeatable, dependable ability. That's what you're watching, you dumb sack of donkey cum. You're watching the best team in the NFL for the last decade continue it's dominance against opponents playing at the bleeding edge of their ability.

The Chiefs are a Ferrari. The Opponents are a Mazda. You can push that Mazda to 120 MPH, sure. But one tiny mistake and you fly off the road. The Ferrari can handle mistakes at 120 MPH. The Mazda can't. That's why the Chiefs are winning close games. But keep calling it luck, dipshit.

Skill:technology::Luck:Magic.

smithandrew051 · 12-12-2024, 12:53 PM

Maybe the Kansas City Chiefs are the goodest lucky team ever?

**ptlyon** · 12-12-2024, 12:54 PM

They should look at the least the Chiefs era when Reid was coach. This team doesn't blow any team out.

Because Reid wants it that way.

mr. tegu · 12-12-2024, 12:58 PM

No one ever wants to talk about how year over year we have terrible turnover luck and are basically always in the negative in turnover differential. Teams aren’t supposed to routinely win like that, yet we do.

Red Dawg · 12-12-2024, 01:05 PM

Dribble. Other teams have won may close games in a season and never been treated with microscope we are under. The 2000 Ravens literally won 7 games without the offense getting a td.

**Bearcat** · 12-12-2024, 01:14 PM

Bills fans (much like many other football fans including CP) spent two decades convincing themselves the Patriots weren't that good, and now they get to do the same with Mahomes and the Chiefs.

Seems like 90% of the Chiefs' reddit is posts trying to defend the Chiefs from this idiocy, so I'm sure this will get posted over there and they'll just eat it up... it's quite the loser mentality to care so much about the haters though.

They will always hate, and if you aren't hated in competition, it just means you aren't good enough.

**Dartgod** · 12-12-2024, 01:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by UteChief

Is this worth reading or pointless dribble?

Yes

vonBobo · 12-12-2024, 01:19 PM

Remember when Dick Vermiels Chiefs would be up by 3 touchdowns in the first quarter of reg season games and then go 1 and done in the playoffs?

BlackHelicopters · 12-12-2024, 01:20 PM

Dribble?

brdempsey69 · 12-12-2024, 01:21 PM

As TEX has said elsewhere -- embrace the hate, because it means the Chiefs are doing something right.

Such as 9 straight AFC West titles, 6 straight AFCCG appearances, and 4 SB appearances. Not too bad, at all.

**Bearcat** · 12-12-2024, 01:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BlackHelicopters

Dribble?

The pointless kind

Stanley Theoffice GIFfrom Stanley GIFs

12-12-2024, 12:05 PM
Donger "Think BOOM!" Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: 33.675° N 106.475° W Casino cash: $6869900 VARSITY	The Kansas City Chiefs are the luckiest good team ever https://www.cnn.com/2024/12/12/sport...spt/index.html I am a Buffalo Bills fan and watching the Kansas City Chiefs this year has been downright painful. They seemingly pull victories out of nowhere. The Chiefs have a) won a game on a last-second field goal block and b) won a game on a last-second field goal that hit the upright and went in. It just always seems the ball bounces Kansas City’s way, as they’ve gone 12-1 through their first 13 games. After looking into it, the Chiefs, it turns out, are the luckiest 11+ win team through 13 games in the Super Bowl era. History says that probably makes them less likely to win the Super Bowl, but the sad part for me as a Bills fan is that history also says their luck may never run out. What do I mean? Let’s start with simple math. The Chiefs have only outscored their opponents by 56 points over the course of the season. In the average game, they’ve won by a little over four points. I decided to look back at every team who won at least 11 of their first 13 games since the first Super Bowl season (1966-67). By my count, there have been 107 of these teams. The Chiefs rank 107th of 107 in terms of point differential – points scored minus points given up. That is dead last in the Super Bowl era. This year alone, the Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles – both sitting at 11-2 on the year – have outscored their opponents by 99 and 108 points respectively. The 12-1 Detroit Lions have scored 183 points more than the opposition, which is more than three times as much as the Chiefs. The Chiefs have seemingly been extremely lucky. Take the last five games as an example: they’ve won four games by scores of two points (vs. the Denver Broncos), three points (against the Carolina Panthers), two points (vs. the Las Vegas Raiders) and two points (against the LA Chargers). They also suffered their one loss of the season by nine points to my Bills. All told, they’ve broken even on point differential and somehow come out with a record of 4-1. This might be the point where you’d expect me to say that the Chiefs’ luck is about to run out. After all, I’m a Bills fan and I hope it does run out. Well, it is more likely to be the case that the Chiefs don’t win a Super Bowl, but that’s not a guarantee. I cracked the numbers thanks to my friend and sports genius Neil Paine. Among the 11+ win teams with the 25 best point differentials historically, 36% won the Super Bowl. Among the 11+ win teams with the 25 worst point differentials, 12% of them won the Super Bowl. This is the good news for folks like myself. The bad news can be seen by looking at the New England Patriots. The 2003 Patriots are the team with the second-worst point differential among those that won at least 11 of their first 13 games. They outscored their opponent by a mere 60 points, or a little less than five points per game. The ‘03 Patriots would go on to win the Super Bowl with a playoff run in which they won the average game by a little over five points. The 11+ win team with the best point differential to this point? The 2007 Patriots, who had outscored their opponents by an incredible 281 points – or 22 points per game – to this point. They won every game until they lost the Super Bowl. This fascinated me because I expected a stronger connection between point differential and a team’s fate. I thought maybe I was missing something like the strength of a team’s opponent. The 2024 Chiefs, after all, have played a relatively weak schedule. Their average opponent has won just 46% of its games, while the average team overall has won 50% of its games. Again, with the help of my friend Neil, I was able to look at this factor. It turns out that winning by a lot versus good teams as compared to bad teams doesn’t really tell us much about a team’s Super Bowl aspirations, once you look only at 11+ win teams. Among eventual Super Bowl winners who had won 11+ games at this point and had a point differential in the top half among all 11+ game winners, the average opponent had won 45% of all games. Among those who didn’t win the Super Bowl, the average opponent had won 44% of all their games. Perhaps, the fact that the Chiefs have been so lucky and could easily continue to be lucky shouldn’t be so surprising to me. It’s not like the Chiefs tore it up last year. They had a worse point differential than every team they beat in the postseason. Still, the stats are on my side and their luck will probably run out. But given the sometimes magic and sometimes depressing unpredictability of sports, I’m not sure I feel so secure about that, however. Last edited by Donger; 12-12-2024 at 12:35 PM..
Posts: 190,998

12-12-2024, 12:43 PM	#19
staylor26 In Search of a Life Join Date: Oct 2007 Casino cash: $-1970960	People keep doing this not realizing that the "luckiest team ever" just recently added Pacheco, Omenihu, and Humphries, with Hollywood, Nelson, and possibly Watson returning too. The fact that this "luckiest team ever" is adding all of that talent this late in the season should scare everybody, not make them feel any better.
Posts: 52,883	4 0

12-12-2024, 12:45 PM	#20
saphojunkie MVP Join Date: Aug 2011 Casino cash: $2296550	Luck, was it, when Leo Chenal blasted through a weak lineman he'd been owning all game to block the field goal? Luck, when the hardest working front office in the NFL had a kicker they'd already scouted on speed dial when their kicker went down? Luck when they had ANOTHER kicker who had already played for them ready to go in case of emergency? Was it luck when a team fighting for the worst record in the league couldn't mount a comeback with their backup up quarterback? Luck that a bad team played bad? Luck that a backup tight end couldn't make an EXCEPTIONAL play? Luck is the wind picking up at the right moment. Luck is great players having freak accidents. Luck is the unexpected happening without provocation or reason. Skill is repeatable, dependable ability. That's what you're watching, you dumb sack of donkey cum. You're watching the best team in the NFL for the last decade continue it's dominance against opponents playing at the bleeding edge of their ability. The Chiefs are a Ferrari. The Opponents are a Mazda. You can push that Mazda to 120 MPH, sure. But one tiny mistake and you fly off the road. The Ferrari can handle mistakes at 120 MPH. The Mazda can't. That's why the Chiefs are winning close games. But keep calling it luck, dipshit. Skill:technology::Luck:Magic.
Posts: 12,923	21 0

12-12-2024, 12:53 PM	#21
smithandrew051 I Like The Kansas City Chiefs Join Date: Nov 2017 Location: Shawnee, KS Casino cash: $-525600	Maybe the Kansas City Chiefs are the goodest lucky team ever? __________________ My 2024 Adopt a Chief: Leo Chenal My Guy 2025 NFL Draft: Logan Brown, OT, Kansas Holy Hat!
Posts: 31,788	1 0

12-12-2024, 12:54 PM	#22
ptlyon Bono & Grbac wasn't enough Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Sioux City, IA Casino cash: $9383829	They should look at the least the Chiefs era when Reid was coach. This team doesn't blow any team out. Because Reid wants it that way. __________________ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Advertise here: $19.99 a month
Posts: 40,764

12-12-2024, 12:58 PM	#23
mr. tegu Forever Royal Join Date: Mar 2012 Casino cash: $-1748700	No one ever wants to talk about how year over year we have terrible turnover luck and are basically always in the negative in turnover differential. Teams aren’t supposed to routinely win like that, yet we do.
Posts: 26,501	3 0

12-12-2024, 01:05 PM	#24
Red Dawg Going home eventually Join Date: Dec 2002 Casino cash: $1382858	Dribble. Other teams have won may close games in a season and never been treated with microscope we are under. The 2000 Ravens literally won 7 games without the offense getting a td. __________________ If you're not first you're last!
Posts: 33,118	3 0

12-12-2024, 01:14 PM	#25
Bearcat Would an idiot do that? Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Arizona Casino cash: $-925069	Bills fans (much like many other football fans including CP) spent two decades convincing themselves the Patriots weren't that good, and now they get to do the same with Mahomes and the Chiefs. Seems like 90% of the Chiefs' reddit is posts trying to defend the Chiefs from this idiocy, so I'm sure this will get posted over there and they'll just eat it up... it's quite the loser mentality to care so much about the haters though. They will always hate, and if you aren't hated in competition, it just means you aren't good enough. __________________
Posts: 59,491	2 0

12-12-2024, 01:19 PM	#27
vonBobo Starter Join Date: Jan 2019 Casino cash: $3230400	Remember when Dick Vermiels Chiefs would be up by 3 touchdowns in the first quarter of reg season games and then go 1 and done in the playoffs?
Posts: 990	4 0

12-12-2024, 01:20 PM	#28
BlackHelicopters Spiraling down the Drain Join Date: Oct 2012 Location: Dante's Ninth Circle Casino cash: $-759412	Dribble? __________________ "We're both part of the same hypocrisy, Senator, but never think it applies to my family." "Fredo. You are my brother, and I love you. But never take sides against the Family again. Ever." 2019 Adopt a Chief - Travis Kelce #87
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12-12-2024, 01:21 PM	#29
brdempsey69 Starter Join Date: Oct 2010 Casino cash: $9054900	As TEX has said elsewhere -- embrace the hate, because it means the Chiefs are doing something right. Such as 9 straight AFC West titles, 6 straight AFCCG appearances, and 4 SB appearances. Not too bad, at all.
Posts: 358	3 0