"Official" 2011 St. Louis Cardinals Thread

[BigRedChief]

This is so unreal. We were dead. No hope. A season over. Somehow, someway we find some team chemistry and squeak into the playoffs on the last day of the season.

Only to find us facing one of the best pitching staffs assembled in years with home field advantage. We somehow, someway find a way to beat the best pitcher in baseball on the road in an elimination game.

We have to go on the road and beat the team with the best home record in baseball. A team who mortgaged their future to make this run .We somehow, someway find a way to beat them on the road and make our 18th World series trip.

We take game 1, we give away game 2 and home field advantage. Albert goes off for probably the best performance in World Series history and we take game 3 easily. Games 4 & 5 our bats fall asleep, Phone gate happens and its not looking too good.

Game 6, one of the best baseball games of all time and it takes place in a season ending go home game. Cardinals are down 2 runs in their final chance on the season, twice. They are down to their final strike of the season, twice. They give up a 2 run homer in extra innings. In the bottom of the inning their final 3 batters are a combined 3-26 in the Playoffs and a pitcher because the bench is empty. Somehow, someway they get some runners on and the comeback player of the year drives in the tying run. Mr. Freese hits the walk off home run. We will see you tommorrow night.

Game 7, With our bulldog on the mound pitching on 3 days rest he is able to give us 6 good innings and get us to within 9 outs of our 11 World series title. Texas meltsdown, probably left over from last nights game and its over.

The underdog, come back team who had no business even being in the playoffs wins a World championship. They make movies about events like this in life. Events that you remember even if your not a fan of the sport or team for the rest of your life.

When it is your team.......Priceless


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[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by DeezNutz

On the whole, I don't disagree. But I also think it's difficult to ascribe a ceiling to an elite talent like Pujols. Most indicators suggest that he'll have another 3-4 strong years and then trail off, but Pujols has shown that he's an exception in a number of different ways.

I think he's the type of pure hitter who can have another really, really good six years. Would the last two years of the contract be ridiculous? More than likely, but, as I said before, Pujols would have long since provided a return on ownership's investment.

Claims that STL would be "crippled" by the contract would be PR bullshit from ownership.

I agree. As I've said several times, ownership can absolutely handle the $30 million/season as they are playing with house money in regards to the Cardinals at this point.

But does that mean they should? While I'm not certain I agree with it, I think I respect their decision to look at this as a baseball decision only. From a baseball standpoint, there are better ways to spend that money.

And while Albert's a 'pure' hitter, he's also a pure hitter with a bad body type. His lower body has been giving him fits for 3 or 4 years now. His feet and knees consantly bother him. My understanding is that he has some significant upper body/torso issues last year that he kept hidden as best he could. Pujols has a body that simply isn't going to age terribly well. He's not a fat-body like Fielder, but he doesn't have that lithe body type that would be able to age more gracefully.

I expect his career curve to be very similar to Berkmans, actually. Berkman has a very similar body type and actually had a very similar approach. He wasn't quite as good, but he was a pure hitter with a good eye and a mediocre body. And at age 31, he fell hard. He had a nice rebound at age 32, but that was fueled by a remarkable 1st half, IIRC, before he tailed off again. I can absolutely see Albert starting his decline as soon as 2012 and it could be far more severe than we expect.

[eazyb81]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

Espn is reporting that the cardinals final offer didn't even put Albert in the top 5 baseball players avv salary. If true that would insult the he'll out of me. I'm the best player in baseball and you don't think I even deserve top 5 money?

Wow. Easy to see why Pujols would be insulted by an offer like that.

[Valiant]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

Espn is reporting that the cardinals final offer didn't even put Albert in the top 5 baseball players avv salary. If true that would insult the he'll out of me. I'm the best player in baseball and you don't think I even deserve top 5 money?

I hate the cards, mainly their fans. But you have to pay them man. He will make the franchise more then 300plus million in his next couple years. The guy is a legendary player.

It is true he might not be worth the 30mill a year at 40 but the dude will be worth more then that to any franchise from marketing and sales alone.

It will never happen because glass is a bitch and runs his team like walmart still, but pujols would add way more advertisers to the team, asses in the seats and jersey sales.

But I think the cards will come in a say deal, it would be toooo huge of a ****up to let him walk.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by eazyb81

Wow. Easy to see why Pujols would be insulted by an offer like that.

Why? That essentially amounts to offering him approximately $24 million/season (if you believe that figure).

If they offered him 8 years and $192 million, WTF is is 'insulting' about making that offer to a 1b that will be 32 when the contract actually starts? It's not like he's Joe Mauer, who is younger and plays a harder position. Or Cliff Lee, who's on a 3 year deal or A-Rod who gets a Yankee bonus (and plays 3b rather than 1b). Or Howard...who's deal is mother****ing stupid.

Is it a little bit low? Yeah, it's lower than I'd have likely gone. But to call it 'insulting' ignores the reality of the player's age and position.

[eazyb81]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Why? That essentially amounts to offering him approximately $24 million/season (if you believe that figure).

If they offered him 8 years and $192 million, WTF is is 'insulting' about making that offer to a 1b that will be 32 when the contract actually starts? It's not like he's Joe Mauer, who is younger and plays a harder position. Or Cliff Lee, who's on a 3 year deal or A-Rod who gets a Yankee bonus (and plays 3b rather than 1b). Or Howard...who's deal is mother****ing stupid.

Is it a little bit low? Yeah, it's lower than I'd have likely gone. But to call it 'insulting' ignores the reality of the player's age and position.

Because he pretty clearly stated his demands to be paid as the top player in his baseball, and the consensus is that he in fact is the top player in baseball.

Of course he would be insulted by that offer.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by eazyb81

Because he pretty clearly stated his demands to be paid as the top player in his baseball, and the consensus is that he in fact is the top player in baseball.

Of course he would be insulted by that offer.

So I wonder, would he be willing to sign a 1 year deal for $28 million with successive club options at $28 million/season for the next 7 seasons? That way he can be sure he's the top paid player in baseball just as long as he remains the best player in baseball.

No, of course not. Because he knows damn good and well that, if he's still the most valuable player in baseball, at 32 years old he isn't going to be for much longer. So for him to get all asshurt because he won't be getting paid more than everyone in the game for the worst 8 years of his career is just assinine.

If he wants to be insulted for getting a deal that offers an AAV commensurate with his age and the length of the deal, he can go ahead and try to find it somewhere else.

[DeezNutz]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

he can go ahead and try to find it somewhere else.

I have full power from Walmart to offer Albert 8 for 240 right now. Come on over, baby.

[eazyb81]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

So I wonder, would he be willing to sign a 1 year deal for $28 million with successive club options at $28 million/season for the next 7 seasons? That way he can be sure he's the top paid player in baseball just as long as he remains the best player in baseball.

No, of course not. Because he knows damn good and well that, if he's still the most valuable player in baseball, at 32 years old he isn't going to be for much longer. So for him to get all asshurt because he won't be getting paid more than everyone in the game for the worst 8 years of his career is just assinine.

If he wants to be insulted for getting a deal that offers an AAV commensurate with his age and the length of the deal, he can go ahead and try to find it somewhere else.

Why the fuck would he do something stupid like that? That structure is hardly what the market bears, and that is the important point here.

He is the best player in baseball, period. End of discussion. Of course some general attrition is expected as he gets older, but salary inflation will also occur. The team that signs him is going to still be getting a very good deal up front given the 6.5-8 WAR expectation, and will be paying a premium by the end of the deal. That is the same expectation that is baked into the ARod, Teixeira, AGonz, etc deals.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by eazyb81

Why the fuck would he do something stupid like that? That structure is hardly what the market bears, and that is the important point here.

He is the best player in baseball, period. End of discussion. Of course some general attrition is expected as he gets older, but salary inflation will also occur. The team that signs him is going to still be getting a very good deal up front given the 6.5-8 WAR expectation, and will be paying a premium by the end of the deal. That is the same expectation that is baked into the ARod, Teixeira, AGonz, etc deals.

And we'll see what the market bears this time.

My problem is not that the turned down the deal. My problem is with this idea that he should somehow be aghast by it. The A-Rod deal is stupid, very very stupid. The Tex deal is looking to be the same animal.

Citing stupid contracts as a reason why the Cardinals should have offered a stupid contract of their own is hardly reason enough for me to believe that Albert was 'justifiably' offended by what appears to be a contract that is actually reasonable in light of his expected production as opposed to the exorbitant bullshit offered by idiot GMs that play with monopoly money.

[epitome1170]

Mozeliak did a lot of stupid shit, but Pujols refused to negotiate an extension the past couple years - publicly stating repeatedly HE preferred to play out his existing contract. HE set the entire timetable. HE set an unrealistic ceiling. HE set the deadline. HE refuses to negotiate in-ST or in-Season 2-years running. HE made ALL the rules.

I used to think more highly of Pujols, but some amount of respect has been lost the last few years.

[Frazod]

I wonder if we'll get another THE DECISION show on ESPN?

If so, I'll just go ahead and burn my Pujols jersey the minute I hear about it.

[eazyb81]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

And we'll see what the market bears this time.

My problem is not that the turned down the deal. My problem is with this idea that he should somehow be aghast by it. The A-Rod deal is stupid, very very stupid. The Tex deal is looking to be the same animal.

Citing stupid contracts as a reason why the Cardinals should have offered a stupid contract of their own is hardly reason enough for me to believe that Albert was 'justifiably' offended by what appears to be a contract that is actually reasonable in light of his expected production as opposed to the exorbitant bullshit offered by idiot GMs that play with monopoly money.

And saying said contracts are stupid without providing some substance besides your personal opinion doesn't mean anything.

If we want to go all SABR crazy, views I've read argue that each WAR is valued at approximately $5MM on the open market. After a few simple calculations, including an expected gradual decline in value and a general increase in salaries, an argument can definitely be made that Pujols' demands are not all that crazy.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by eazyb81

And saying said contracts are stupid without providing some substance besides your personal opinion doesn't mean anything.

If we want to go all SABR crazy, views I've read argue that each WAR is valued at approximately $5MM on the open market. After a few simple calculations, including an expected gradual decline in value and a general increase in salaries, an argument can definitely be made that Pujols' demands are not all that crazy.

I've seen the WAR calculated at about $3 million/marginal win which seems reasonable in light of overall team payroll. Calculating them at $5 million is agent-speak. When you consider Whitey Herzog's old addage: "Everyone wins 60, everyone loses 60, it's what you do with the 42 in the middle that counts" (paraphrase), it's absurd to suggest that every marginal win share should net a player $5 million. However, when you start to use $3 million, you end up with values that are pretty close to in-line. Was Zack Greinke worth $45 million to the Royals in 2009? No, of course not. But I'll listen to an argument that he was worth $27 million.

A good working figure for WAR is right at $3 million and an annual review of the leaders, etc... supports that. Albert's averaged right at 8 over the last 5 seasons but fell off to 7 this last season. A deal right around $24-26 million over 8 seasons is absolutely fair and probably still more than I'd give from a pure baseball perspective.

Cashman himself has stated that he regrets the A-Rod contract. Do you really think the Yankees are going to be happy they're paying A-Rod $28 million when he's 42? Hell, the guy fell off pretty hard last season and they still have something like 8 years to go. That contract is an absolute disaster and one that would've folded a team like the Cardinals.

[Swanman]

I just checked out the St. Louis Post Dispatch website. Not that this means anything concrete, but the comments attached to the article were slamming Albert more than they were slamming the ballclub. That doesn't really surprise me, given many midwesterners have a hard time feeling sorry for an athlete that is being paid more money in a year than they will make in their lifetime.

I think there are ways to structure the deal to not kill either side, but both sides are being dickheads.

One of the comments was intersesting, and I think it's being mentioned here, that Albert is taking a HUGE risk by not signing a deal now. If he underperforms or gets hurt (either could happen, he's not a teenager), then he could be leaving many millions on the table. I believe others have mentioned that point in this thread.

[eazyb81]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I've seen the WAR calculated at about $3 million/marginal win which seems reasonable in light of overall team payroll. Calculating them at $5 million is agent-speak. When you consider Whitey Herzog's old addage: "Everyone wins 60, everyone loses 60, it's what you do with the 42 in the middle that counts" (paraphrase), it's absurd to suggest that every marginal win share should net a player $5 million. However, when you start to use $3 million, you end up with values that are pretty close to in-line. Was Zack Greinke worth $45 million to the Royals in 2009? No, of course not. But I'll listen to an argument that he was worth $27 million.

A good working figure for WAR is right at $3 million and an annual review of the leaders, etc... supports that. Albert's averaged right at 8 over the last 5 seasons but fell off to 7 this last season. A deal right around $24-26 million over 8 seasons is absolutely fair and probably still more than I'd give from a pure baseball perspective.

Cashman himself has stated that he regrets the A-Rod contract. Do you really think the Yankees are going to be happy they're paying A-Rod $28 million when he's 42? Hell, the guy fell off pretty hard last season and they still have something like 8 years to go. That contract is an absolute disaster and one that would've folded a team like the Cardinals.

This recent article from Fangraphs is going with $5MM per WAR given recent contracts.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...jols-contract/

I think you are fooling yourself if you truly believe teams aren't going to fall over themselves to try to lock up the game's best player next year, even at the numbers he is throwing out.

Both LA teams, Both Chicago teams, NY Mets, Detroit, and a few wildcards like Washington will all be contenders.