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Old 11-21-2021, 07:21 PM  
MMXcalibur MMXcalibur is offline
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How good are the Chiefs chances at the AFC's #1 seed?
Updated: 12/19

Teams that actually matter in this conversation:

Kansas City (10-4) (vs PIT, at CIN, at DEN)

New England (9-5) (vs BUF, vs JAC, at MIA)

Tennessee (9-5) (vs SF, vs MIA, at HOU)

Baltimore (8-5) (vs GB, at CIN, vs LAR, vs PIT)

Buffalo (8-6) (at NE, vs ATL, vs NYJ)

Indianapolis (8-6) (at ARI, vs LV, at JAC)

LA Chargers (8-6) (at HOU, vs DEN, at LV)

---

Being 1 game back with six games to play seems incredibly generous given our shitty tiebreaker situation. I'll put our odds at 99.9999999%
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Old 12-05-2021, 11:16 PM   #301
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The Chargers got beaten down by Denver last week. I suspect they'll be good for another one of those classic Charger losses down the stretch.
Mahomes and crew just need to go in there and handle business. Their secondary is banged up. Don't want to have to find myself rooting for the Raiders the last week of the season Chargers @ Raiders
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Old 12-05-2021, 11:19 PM   #302
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Mahomes and crew just need to go in there and handle business. Their secondary is banged up. Don't want to have to find myself rooting for the Raiders the last week of the season Chargers @ Raiders
We need to hit Bosa in the head on every ****ing play.

I want to see what's left of that cro magnon's brain dribbling out his ears after Darrel Williams chips him right in the cranium for the 30th pass play in a row.
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Old 12-06-2021, 11:41 AM   #303
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So I think a Bills win tonight and loss later this week (to bucs), followed with a Chiefs win and a balt loss would put Chiefs up to 2 seed. If Tenn lost to jags again we would be the 1 seed in that scenerio.
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Old 12-06-2021, 11:44 AM   #304
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So I think a Bills win tonight and loss later this week (to bucs), followed with a Chiefs win and a balt loss would put Chiefs up to 2 seed. If Tenn lost to jags again we would be the 1 seed in that scenerio.
CORRECT
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Old 12-06-2021, 11:46 AM   #305
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CORRECT
So we root for the Dirty ****ing Bill Bags!
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Old 12-06-2021, 11:46 AM   #306
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You know they say that all teams are created equal, but you look at the Chiefs and you look at the Ravens and you can see that statement is not true. See, normally if you go one on one with another team, you got a 50/50 chance of winning. But the Chiefs are genetic freaks and they're not normal! So you got a 25%, AT BEST, at beat Chiefs. Then you add the Patriots to the mix, your chances of winning drastic go down. See the #1 seed, for the playoffs, you got a 33 1/3 chance of winning, but the Chiefs, they got a 66 and 2/3 chance of winning, because the Patriots KNOW they can't beat the Chiefs and they're not even gonna try!


So Ravens, you take your 33 1/3 chance, minus the Chiefs' 25% chance and you got an 8 1/3 chance of winning the #1 seed. But then you take the Chiefs' 75% chance of winning, if they were to go one on one, and then add 66 2/3 per cents, the Chiefs got 141 2/3 chance of winning the #1 seed. See Ravens, the numbers don't lie, and they spell disaster for you getting the #1 seed.


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Old 12-06-2021, 11:55 AM   #307
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So we root for the Dirty ****ing Bill Bags!
NOBODY CIRCLES THE WAGONS
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Old 12-06-2021, 11:59 AM   #308
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If the Patriots win tonight, they will get the top seed most likely. They are playing the best football of any team. A win at Buffalo Monday night will be all they need.
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Old 12-06-2021, 12:03 PM   #309
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Chiefs are on the losing end of several tie breakers. Right at this moment, the Pats, Titans and Ravens all have the tie breaker advantage on the Chiefs. If the Chiefs, Chargers and Bills all had identical records right now, the Chargers and Bills would have tie breaker advantages as well. A lot would have to fall just right for the Chiefs to end up as the 1 seed. The odds have to be pretty steep against that happening.
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Old 12-06-2021, 12:05 PM   #310
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If the Patriots win tonight, they will get the top seed most likely. They are playing the best football of any team. A win at Buffalo Monday night will be all they need.
New England still has losable games at Indy and against the Bills again, and @MIA is no cakewalk.

But best road for KC is a Buffalo win tonight.

I think the chips will fall pretty well for KC in the other games, I'm mostly concerned about US taking care of the Chargers and Bengals. We got everyone else, easy.
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Old 12-06-2021, 12:07 PM   #311
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If the Patriots win tonight, they will get the top seed most likely. They are playing the best football of any team. A win at Buffalo Monday night will be all they need.


Yea let’s just assume the Pats sweep the Bills, beat the red hot Colts, and don’t lose their yearly game to the Dolphins.
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Old 12-06-2021, 12:08 PM   #312
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If the Patriots win tonight, they will get the top seed most likely. They are playing the best football of any team. A win at Buffalo Monday night will be all they need.

Dude, you're such a bundle of sticks
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Old 12-06-2021, 12:17 PM   #313
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We want New England to win tonight right? Buffalo has tie breaker on us as they beat us head to head.
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Old 12-06-2021, 12:20 PM   #314
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We want New England to win tonight right? Buffalo has tie breaker on us as they beat us head to head.
Nope. Buffalo.

Then Buffalo turns around and loses to TB to go 8-5.
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Old 12-06-2021, 12:25 PM   #315
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Ravens CB Marlon Humphrey (shoulder) likely out for season

Ravens aren't beating us without Humphrey.
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