Let's Talk about Houston (Divisional Round edition)

[SHOWTIME]

I'm guessing our game against Houston will be on Saturday....this is big, since it would give us an extra day before the AFCCG and either Buffalo/Baltimore would have to travel to Arrowhead.

Update: 3:30 CST, Saturday January 18

Stroud. Mahomes. Divisional Round. Let's GO.#HOUvsKC pic.twitter.com/BVYfXDhRxh

— NFL (@NFL) January 12, 2025

[smithandrew051]

Something similar to Miami last year is what I’m expecting.

Competitive regular season game that was never really in doubt, and the postseason rematch just has too much in the Chiefs’ favor.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

I'm seeing a decent amount of "If the Texans can pressure the Chiefs the way they got to the Chargers" in way of analysis. And I think it's shallow and hopeful/copeful.

You watch that game, and the Chargers were running a lot of slow-developing routes, with bad concepts all over the place.

If KC commits to the quick game again - and there's every reason to believe that will be their plan, agains - it just doesn't work.

It's going to be fun to see KC fully unleash an offense with a healthy Marquise Brown, Hopkins no longer on a pitch count, Mahomes fully healthy, and everyone rested and ready to rock-and-roll.

Confidence level is like 9.5/10 on this one, for me.

They can't pressure the Chiefs like they did the Chargers - the Chiefs IOL is actually good. I'm very confident right now. Very.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by FloridaMan88

The Fall of the Nazi (Johnson) Regime.

Best-case scenario, KC can play Watson and Williams outside and use McDuffie in the slot and absolutely dominate at the CB level.

[MahomesMagic]

Texans waived WR Diontae Johnson.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) January 14, 2025

[Jet Chip Wasp]

We're going to win, might as well bet money on the Chiefs to win and place prop bets on our players.

[MahomesMagic]

Originally Posted by Jet Chip Wasp

We're going to win, might as well bet money on the Chiefs to win and place prop bets on our players.

My friend's brother is a professional gambler.


He turned 30K into almost 200K so far this year betting Chiefs ML most weeks.


He is now in Vegas and the casinos are paying for everything for him to continue.

He is playing Chiefs ML to the end.

[Bearcat]

Clickbait headline, Should NFL teams even want the No. 1 seed?

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...as-city-chiefs

Spoiler!

THE KANSAS CITY Chiefs' latest Super Bowl run began in earnest from the conference room of a Denver hotel. It was hours after a Week 18 loss to the Broncos -- a defeat that was all but expected after the Chiefs played mostly backups in the effort to rest starters -- and the team was stuck in town overnight due to heavy snow in the Kansas City area.

Chiefs coach Andy Reid laid out the No. 1 seed's bye week schedule, which came with a twist: The team would be off Monday through Wednesday and practice later in the week, a departure from the Chiefs' normal in-season bye week procedure.

Reid later said the schedule mirrored their 2022-23 postseason, when the Chiefs last held the No. 1 seed, "almost to a T."

But a team source sensed surprise in the room, perhaps because the ability to get some rest was so timely.

"I loved what he did," the source said. "It's a learned experience, or unique to our situation each year -- every year has different needs."

The Chiefs had good reason to run back their 2022 itinerary -- they're the only team that has parlayed a 1-seed into a Super Bowl title under the league's new playoff format. They beat the Philadelphia Eagles, the NFC's 1-seed, in Super Bowl LVII in Arizona.

This season marks the fifth year since the NFL playoff bracket expanded to 14 teams in the 2020 season, isolating the 1-seeds as the only ones that receive postseason bye weeks. Previously, two teams in each conference got byes.

As the Chiefs were meeting at their Denver hotel, the Vikings and Lions played for the right to claim the 1-seed in the NFC. Minnesota lost, falling to the 5-seed and a first-round road game on wild-card week.

Securing the No. 1 seed was a yearlong goal for Lions head coach Dan Campbell.

"You come out of that game and feel like it gives you the best odds to get to where the ultimate goal is, which is, as well all know what the prize is, and that's the Super Bowl," Campbell said.

But the bye week has hardly proven to be a clear path to a championship.

NO. 1 SEEDS have a playoff record of 11-7 (61.1 win percentage) since 2020, with the 2023 Ravens, 2021 Packers, 2021 Titans and 2020 Packers all failing to reach the Super Bowl from the top perch. Super Bowl LVI after the 2021 season featured two 4-seeds, the Los Angeles Rams and Cincinnati Bengals. The previous season, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers rallied from the 5-seed in 2020 to win it all.

Super Bowl LVII after the 2022 season is the only game under the new format that featured two 1-seeds, the Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles. The NFC's four No. 1 seeds since the format was altered (the Packers in 2020 and 2021, the Eagles in 2022 and the 49ers in 2023) all lost to a worse seed in the playoffs.

From 2002 to 2019, No. 1 seeds held a 51-29 record (63.8 win percentage) in the playoffs. Seven of them won the Super Bowl.

Though the Chiefs are accustomed to the process, recent 1-seeds admit that guarding against coming out flat because of too much rest is a real concern.

The Tennessee Titans were in an unfamiliar spot by the end of the 2021 season -- having the No. 1 seed, thanks to a 12-5 record. The Titans had failed to win 10 or more games for 11 straight seasons before coach Mike Vrabel led Tennessee to 23 combined wins from 2020 to 2021, and earned the top seed after being a No. 4 seed the previous year.

Tennessee started the bye week with a few technique-driven practices, a high-ranking official from that team recalled, followed by a heavier workload through Thursday and a few days off on the back end.

THE CURSE OF "too much time" doesn't offset two key benefits that 1-seeds earn: injury prevention and the expedited path to a title that comes with one fewer game.

Just ask the Chiefs, who have all but mastered the bye week. Kansas City won Super Bowls after holding the 1-seeds in 2019 and 2022. In 2020, the Chiefs reached the Super Bowl as a 1-seed but lost to the Bucs.

"It's essentially like winning a playoff game," a Chiefs source said. "It's rest, recovery and not getting someone injured for the next game. If you have a veteran group and the leadership to handle that well, it should work to your advantage."

A key component of that advantage is Reid, known as an excellent planner. For example, even though the Chiefs had played all four possible divisional round opponents leading into last weekend, Reid said "you can't be content" with what you've already seen and must dig back into the game tape from many if not all of their games.

The Chiefs also rely heavily on self-scouting tendencies, going deeper on plays or concepts that are evergreen and effective against any opponent.

"We've tried to hammer those out, continue to do that until we find out what the results are Sunday night," Reid said. "We [were] going to try to be ready for all of [the potential opponents] since we have this time."

Despite their perennial role as a heavy favorite, the Chiefs say they try to keep the mentality of a 7-seed during weeks like this, clinging to core tenets that combat complacency. They remind themselves that players should never assume they'll be back in the playoffs next year. Kansas City tells its young players that relative unknowns can enjoy a star turn in the playoffs, such as Green Bay wide receiver Romeo Doubs, who finished with 151 receiving yards against Dallas in last year's wild-card round. And they tell players that momentum can be thrown out once the playoffs begin.

"Home-field advantage doesn't mean much once you kick it off," a member of the Chiefs staff said.
...

[Hammock Parties]

oof

[RaidersOftheCellar]

KC 31
Houston 17

[Hammock Parties]

If Shaq Mason is not 100% we will simply dominate their interior all game long.

[CoMoChief]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

Texans waived WR Diontae Johnson.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) January 14, 2025

bwahahaha thats just god damn funny.

who's gonna take a flyer on him next season?

[TheGuardian]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Best-case scenario, KC can play Watson and Williams outside and use McDuffie in the slot and absolutely dominate at the CB level.

My God that's it right there

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Good to see that dirty ass LB is dealing with something.

[staylor26]

Wow. The only limited participant in Tuesday's practice was WR Mecole Hardman. Everybody else — including Chris Jones and Jaylen Watson — was a full go.

— Pete Sweeney (@pgsween) January 14, 2025

[Hammock Parties]

Texans are getting steamrolled.

This is gonna be the Dothraki coming over the plains. With a ****ing DRAGON.