***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[BleedingRed]

Originally Posted by jackkked

I found this on the SanDiegoCounty.gov website this morning, not sure if all municipalities offer such information or not, but for those that are interested in knowing what is really going on, it could be useful.

Again,


Over and over again, the Deaths for COVID are overwhelmingly those aged 70+

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by jackkked

I found this on the SanDiegoCounty.gov website this morning, not sure if all municipalities offer such information or not, but for those that are interested in knowing what is really going on, it could be useful.

Average age of death in SanDiego County is 78.....

[BleedingRed]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

Average age of death in SanDiego County is 78.....

Average age for all of Italy was 81......

[TLO]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

If you want to look at a good model use this one. They have been pretty much spot on the whole time


https://covid19-projections.com/#view-projections

This is where I've been looking lately.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...asting-us.html

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by BleedingRed

Again,


Over and over again, the Deaths for COVID are overwhelmingly those aged 70+

Again,

We know that , it doesn't change the fact a lot of people have family and friends in their 70s and many of then are very active and contribute to the economy, some contribute even more than healthy young people.

[POND_OF_RED]

Originally Posted by Monticore

Again,

We know that , it doesn't change the fact a lot of people have family and friends in their 70s and many of then are very active and contribute to the economy, some contribute even more than healthy young people.

It’s certainly much easier for them to contribute to the stay at home order than the rest of us still working. That’s for sure. If you haven’t accepted the fact that your 70+ year old relatives are going to die soon then I don’t really know what needs to happen to wake you up to the way the world works

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by BleedingRed

Average age for all of Italy was 81......

The other thing people ignore is cause of death for other illness is going to drop, its undeniable. If someone with heart disease dies from this but would have died from heart disease say a year later, we will see a drop in deaths from other illness, its just a matter of time. This has just accelerated the timeline for a number of people.

Its something that needs to be considered looking at the big picture.

[BleedingRed]

Originally Posted by Monticore

Again,

We know that , it doesn't change the fact a lot of people have family and friends in their 70s and many of then are very active and contribute to the economy, some contribute even more than healthy young people.

Changes the fact that young people shouldn't be kept inside, we are not dealing with something that kills young people. atleast not in the number you would need to justify keeping everyone locked up.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by POND_OF_RED

It’s certainly much easier for them to contribute to the stay at home order than the rest of us still working. That’s for sure. If you haven’t accepted the fact that your 70+ year old relatives are going to die soon then I don’t really know what needs to happen to wake you up to the way the world works

I have no problems with people dying , working in a hospital I think I have become desensitized to it to some extent , but my kids would not deal with it the same way I would but I understand it is part of life, there is also a difference between 70 and 85 especially when they are fairly healthy .

I have no problems with starting to open up as long as people still take some precautions so those at risk have better odds, the more people that get infected whether young or old it increases their risks.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by Monticore

I have no problems with people dying , working in a hospital I think I have become desensitized to it to some extent , but my kids would not deal with it the same way I would but understand it is part of life, there is also a difference between 70 and 85 when especially when they are fairly healthy .

I have no problems with starting to open up as long as people still take some precautions so those at risk have better odds, the more people that get infected whether young or old it increases their risks.

I wonder if this will have any effect on how people view their health and will possibly work to be more of a healthy individual moving forward.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by BleedingRed

Changes the fact that young people shouldn't be kept inside, we are not dealing with something that kills young people. atleast not in the number you would need to justify keeping everyone locked up.

I don't want people locked up but it would be nice if the young and healthy still took the people at risk under consideration even though they don't think it can affect them.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

I wonder if this will have any effect on how people view their health and will possibly work to be more of a healthy individual moving forward.

Doctors have been promoting a healthy lifestyle since the beginning of time , we are not that smart .so the government would have to ban smoking , alcohol, refined sugar, high fructose corn syrup , fast food etc ..

[BleedingRed]

Originally Posted by Monticore

I don't want people locked up but it would be nice if the young and healthy still took the people at risk under consideration even though they don't think it can affect them.

Sure,

But all you have to do is look at a couple states in our country to know that is not how they are approaching it.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by BleedingRed

Sure,

But all you have to do is look at a couple states in our country to know that is not how they are approaching it.

Because time and time again people can't always be trusted to make the right choice when it comes to other people.

We had to officially ban smoking in hospitals/indoors etc.. because of our innate selfishness .

[POND_OF_RED]

Originally Posted by Monticore

I have no problems with people dying , working in a hospital I think I have become desensitized to it to some extent , but my kids would not deal with it the same way I would but understand it is part of life, there is also a difference between 70 and 85 when especially when they are fairly healthy .

I have no problems with starting to open up as long as people still take some precautions so those at risk have better odds, the more people that get infected whether young or old it increases their risks.

If they’re fairly healthy then they’ll probably be in the large percentage of people who survive this. Not every old person is dying. In fact there was the Italian guy that survived this and the Spanish flu (edit: didn’t contract Spanish flu, was just alive during it). The fact is we can try to avoid death as much as we want, but we’re ultimately not in control of that. For you to project that your relatives could live to 85 is a bonus considering the average lifespan is still below 72. For the average age of death in both San Diego and Italy to be well over that number is pretty astounding. Makes you realize why more places aren’t breaking down the numbers like that. It definitely makes the virus seem a lot less apocalyptic