***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Bowser]

Originally Posted by KCUnited

In totally predictable news, a week after neighboring states open for business and get flooded with Chicagoans, Pritzker announces restaurants with outdoor seating can reopen at the end of the month. I appreciate the legislative pivot.



https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/loca...tzker/2275370/

I mean, we're all shocked that Wisconsin isn't littered with dead Wisonsians as far as the eye can see right now, right?

[KCUnited]

Even when it’s not about the money, it’s always about the money

[Kidd Lex]

Fascinating read about how the virus spreads:
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020...ead-virus-all#

“...in a recent preprint, Adam Kucharski of LSHTM estimated that k for COVID-19 is as low as 0.1. “Probably about 10% of cases lead to 80% of the spread,” Kucharski says.

That could explain some puzzling aspects of this pandemic, including why the virus did not take off around the world sooner after it emerged in China, and why some very early cases elsewhere—such as one in France in late December 2019, reported on 3 May—apparently failed to ignite a wider outbreak. If k is really 0.1, then most chains of infection die out by themselves and SARS-CoV-2 needs to be introduced undetected into a new country at least four times to have an even chance of establishing itself, Kucharski says. If the Chinese epidemic was a big fire that sent sparks flying around the world, most of the sparks simply fizzled out.“

[petegz28]

Media strikes again...

Headline
SUMMER SCARY: MODELS PREDICT QUARTER MILLION DEAD BY AUGUST

Headline of actual linked article
More than 5 million Americans will be infected with coronavirus and 290,000 will die by the end of July if social distancing isn't adhered to, according to COVID-19 model

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...del-shows.html

But in the article they go on to say....

The ominous forecast from the University Of Pennsylvania's Wharton School model accounts for all states fully reopening without any social distancing measures.

In comparison, the model predicts nearly 4.3 million cases and 230,000 deaths by July 24 if states reopen but individuals maintain their social distancing efforts.

If states only partially reopen by lifting stay-at-home orders but social distancing measures are still adhered to, the model forecasts 3.1 million infections and 172,000 deaths.

So if ALL of the states do what NONE of the states are actually doing then shitloads of people will die.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by Kidd Lex

Fascinating read about how the virus spreads:
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020...ead-virus-all#

“...in a recent preprint, Adam Kucharski of LSHTM estimated that k for COVID-19 is as low as 0.1. “Probably about 10% of cases lead to 80% of the spread,” Kucharski says.

That could explain some puzzling aspects of this pandemic, including why the virus did not take off around the world sooner after it emerged in China, and why some very early cases elsewhere—such as one in France in late December 2019, reported on 3 May—apparently failed to ignite a wider outbreak. If k is really 0.1, then most chains of infection die out by themselves and SARS-CoV-2 needs to be introduced undetected into a new country at least four times to have an even chance of establishing itself, Kucharski says. If the Chinese epidemic was a big fire that sent sparks flying around the world, most of the sparks simply fizzled out.“

Interesting, looks pretty ominous for large sporting events especially indoors in the near future.

[kcclone]

JPMorgan article showing that infection rates are actually decreasing rather than increasing after lockdowns are ending. The coronabros are gonna be pissed...


https://mobile.twitter.com/carlquint...70459450978314

[TLO]

Originally Posted by kcclone

JPMorgan article showing that infection rates are actually decreasing rather than increasing after lockdowns are ending. The coronabros are gonna be pissed...


https://mobile.twitter.com/carlquint...70459450978314

Dead link? NVM - it's working now

[kcclone]

Originally Posted by TLO

Dead link? NVM - it's working now

Fixed

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by TLO

Dead link? NVM - it's working now

i didn't want to post the article because it was a touch political but 600 doctors sent a letter to President Trump about the medical issues being generated by the lockdown. We have been so focused on Covid we have lost sight at the fact that we have actually caused increased deaths in other areas.

[kcclone]

Stanford study suggesting coronavirus might not be as deadly as the flu....

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...-deadly-as-flu

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Media strikes again...

And you bit

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by kcclone

Stanford study suggesting coronavirus might not be as deadly as the flu....

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...-deadly-as-flu

If you cherry pick the data, ignore peer-reviewed publications, and don't actually read the article, sure.

[Chief Pagan]

Originally Posted by kcclone

JPMorgan article showing that infection rates are actually decreasing rather than increasing after lockdowns are ending. The coronabros are gonna be pissed...


https://mobile.twitter.com/carlquint...70459450978314

If only we had never locked down, the virus would have disappeared weeks ago.

NYC was on the right track until they started disinfecting the subway.

[kcclone]

Originally Posted by Chief Pagan

If only we had never locked down, the virus would have disappeared weeks ago.

NYC was on the right track until they started disinfecting the subway.

Interesting Bloomberg article comparing lockdown responses with their results:

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2...ths-recession/

[Strongside]

Originally Posted by kcclone

Interesting Bloomberg article comparing lockdown responses with their results:

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2...ths-recession/

So Italy takes the most aggressive stance, effectively putting their entire country in a vice long before the Pandemic was declared - they suffer the worst casualties.

Sweden doesn't do shit. Says **** it, we're going on with our lives - have one of the best results in the entire world.

Seems to back up this weirdness being claimed by some that the loosening of restrictions is actually decreasing infections.

Perhaps it will be revealed that this disease only infects the sedentary.

As Tom Petty said, "I don't know, but I been told, you never slow down, you never get COVID."