***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by Strongside

Agree. But if the mortality rate keeps going down and it's eventually settled upon that thing is less deadly than the flu, does it matter? These guys have played 100 straight seasons in the heart of flu season.

Not saying that's where this is headed, but that's the rumbling. If public perception becomes that flu is more likely to kill you and science begins to back that up, then sorry...all bets are off. The NFL will take its money the first chance they get.

Please stop spreading this message about COVID 19 and it's comparison to the flu.

https://www.livescience.com/new-coro...-with-flu.html

I also know Pete won't read a word of this.

[BleedingRed]

Originally Posted by lewdog

Please stop spreading this message about COVID 19 and it's comparison to the flu.

https://www.livescience.com/new-coro...-with-flu.html

I also know Pete won't read a word of this.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...-deadly-as-flu

Stop acting like it’s settled science

[Strongside]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

How could anyone with any degree of functional literacy still believe this?

Im sorry man. I haven’t been sitting at my computer digging into the minutia of every model, chart, result, CDC release like you obviously have. I’m not hanging on every up or down tick of the current Ro data like some are.

I’m simply talking about public perception. Public perception is everything. Facts are facts, but how the public perceives a specific situation determines how society handles said facts.

If the fact is that this thing is more deadly than the flu...ok. But if PERCEPTION becomes that it isn’t...and that’s clearly the way this is heading, you’ll see brands like the NFL happily capitalizing on it.

The NFL wants it’s money. The fans want their football.

You aggressively comment like I’m advocating for the disease being a misnomer. I’m not.

I’m simply stating that as long as institutions like Stanford continue to publish findings that the mortality rate is incredibly low, perception will continue to change.

You can laugh or front all you want, but it won’t shock me at all.

[Strongside]

Originally Posted by lewdog

Please stop spreading this message about COVID 19 and it's comparison to the flu.

https://www.livescience.com/new-coro...-with-flu.html

I also know Pete won't read a word of this.

Jesus ****. Did you guys even read what I said? I’m talking about PERCEPTION. The public PERCEPTION is moving in this direction, facts be damned.

This thread is dominated by a few who know all, apparently.

Go join the task force and save the country, you miserable ****s.

[BleedingRed]

Anyone care to explain how places like NY and PA have 70% of COVID19 deaths taking place in nursing homes?

[Strongside]

And if you think the NFL won’t put money above player safety then I’d invite you to google the term CTE.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by Strongside

Im sorry man. I haven’t been sitting at my computer digging into the minutia of every model, chart, result, CDC release like you obviously have. I’m not hanging on every up or down tick of the current Ro data like some are.

I’m simply talking about public perception. Public perception is everything. Facts are facts, but how the public perceives a specific situation determines how society handles said facts.

If the fact is that this thing is more deadly than the flu...ok. But if PERCEPTION becomes that it isn’t...and that’s clearly the way this is heading, you’ll see brands like the NFL happily capitalizing on it.

The NFL wants it’s money. The fans want their football.

You aggressively comment like I’m advocating for the disease being a misnomer. I’m not.

I’m simply stating that as long as institutions like Stanford continue to publish findings that the mortality rate is incredibly low, perception will continue to change.

You can laugh or front all you want, but it won’t shock me at all.

Pubic perception isn't anywhere near that. That was the first goalpost, then it was H1N1, then it was how they were counting. You're conflating the viewpoints of a decided minority of the population with overall views when even those warped views have been altered numerous times.

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by Strongside

Jesus ****. Did you guys even read what I said? I’m talking about PERCEPTION. The public PERCEPTION is moving in this direction, facts be damned.

This thread is dominated by a few who know all, apparently.

Go join the task force and save the country, you miserable ****s.

Public perception in Kansas or Missouri may be different than other parts of the country.

I think the NFL will play regardless and that has nothing to do with comparing this to the flu. It’s just all about the money for them.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by BleedingRed

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...-deadly-as-flu

Stop acting like it’s settled science

It is if you'd actually read the article. People keep posting this article without actually reading the damned thing. It even admits that the studies that give low estimates are not representative samples whatsoever.

If I take the lowest risk demographic group and sample them then compare that to all groups of the flu, of course my numbers are going to look depressed in comparison.

But if you actually look at population-level studies, which have been done in places like Spain, where you have samples of 90,000 people drawn across all areas of society, you end up with an IFR of around 1%, which is an order of magnitude higher than the flu.

Morever, if you merely look at New York City, almost 16,000 people out of a city of 8 million have died of COVID. That means 0.2% of the entire city has died of a disease. Even if 100% of the people had the disease (and it's really closer to 20-25% based on their antibody data), even that would be higher than the flu with an N of 8,000,000 as a sample.

[Strongside]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Pubic perception isn't anywhere near that. That was the first goalpost, then it was H1N1, then it was how they were counting. You're conflating the viewpoints of a decided minority of the population with overall views when even those warped views have been altered numerous times.

But therein lies the human challenge. Minority and majority opinions and sentiment are literally being warped and changed daily. Every spike in the death rate, every dip in new cases, every new way the disease can be contracted, every potential mutation. It only kills old people. Now it’s killing kids. It’s been here since February. No, wait, maybe November. It lives for six days on surfaces. UV light can kill it.

We’d all be better off if we just swallowed our egos and admitted that none of us have a ****ing clue what’s going on.

The talking heads tell us one thing, the data tells us another. My opinion is the same as others, but not the same as yours. I feel I’m a majority and so does everyone else.

It’s a socioeconomic cluster **** on a scale like we’ve never seen.

[BleedingRed]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

It is if you'd actually read the article. People keep posting this article without actually reading the damned thing. It even admits that the studies that give low estimates are not representative samples whatsoever.

If I take the lowest risk demographic group and sample them then compare that to all groups of the flu, of course my numbers are going to look depressed in comparison.

But if you actually look at population-level studies, which have been done in places like Spain, where you have samples of 90,000 people drawn across all areas of society, you end up with an IFR of around 1%, which is an order of magnitude higher than the flu.

Morever, if you merely look at New York City, almost 16,000 people out of a city of 8 million have died of COVID. That means 0.2% of the entire city has died of a disease. Even if 100% of the people had the disease (and it's really closer to 20-25% based on their antibody data), even that would be higher than the flu with an N of 8,000,000 as a sample.

Weird shoving sick people back in nursing homes could have bad outcomes?!?!, who would have ****ing thought that.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by Strongside

But therein lies the human challenge. Minority and majority opinions and sentiment are literally being warped and changed daily. Every spike in the death rate, every dip in new cases, every new way the disease can be contracted, every potential mutation. It only kills old people. Now it’s killing kids. It’s been here since February. No, wait, maybe November. It lives for six days on surfaces. UV light can kill it.

We’d all be better off if we just swallowed our egos and admitted that none of us have a ****ing clue what’s going on.

The talking heads tell us one thing, the data tells us another. My opinion is the same as others, but not the same as yours. I feel I’m a majority and so does everyone else.

It’s a socioeconomic cluster **** on a scale like we’ve never seen.

I don't really give a shit about what you feel; that's the problem: some of us are trying to debate facts, and others act like uninformed opinions have equal validity as data-driven research.

This is just an elaborate rationalization for ignorance and intellectual laziness. It reminds me of a bad student paper wherein the writer doesn't attempt to construct a counterargument because, "everyone has a bias."

There are a lot of things we don't know, but there are also a lot of things we can say definitively.

*We know that social distancing works. This has been proven in the past and with studies of the virus' spread after the initiation of lockdowns.
*We know that the virus is spread primarily through respiratory droplets and that fomite transmission is much less likely
*We know that mask wearing reduces transmission of the virus
*We have learned a lot about the pathophysiology of the disease, which allows clinicians to treat it better (proning, coagulopathies, cytokine storm)
*We know that risk is correlated with age and comorbidity

We don't yet know if we'll have a vaccine, and there are no therapeutic silver bullets, but to say that nobody knows anything speaks to a gargantuan level of ignorance that you're projecting onto the rest of the scientific community when it's really just your own.

[Strongside]

And I’m sorry to have gotten so frustrated here. Those who know me on this board know I’m not big on confrontation. The current state of society has me up to my eyeballs in horse shit and frustration, as I’m sure you can all relate.

I genuinely respect the opinions and smarts on this board, and have found this thread to be both useful and entertaining.

Hope you’re all well.

[Strongside]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

I don't really give a shit about what you feel; that's the problem: some of us are trying to debate facts, and others act like uninformed opinions have equal validity as data-driven research.

This is just an elaborate rationalization for ignorance and intellectual laziness. It reminds me of a bad student paper wherein the writer doesn't attempt to construct a counterargument because, "everyone has a bias."

There are a lot of things we don't know, but there are also a lot of things we can say definitively.

*We know that social distancing works. This has been proven in the past and with studies of the virus' spread after the initiation of lockdowns.
*We know that the virus is spread primarily through respiratory droplets and that fomite transmission is much less likely
*We know that mask wearing reduces transmission of the virus
*We have learned a lot about the pathophysiology of the disease, which allows clinicians to treat it better (proning, coagulopathies, cytokine storm)
*We know that risk is correlated with age and comorbidity

We don't yet know if we'll have a vaccine, and there are no therapeutic silver bullets, but to say that nobody knows anything speaks to a gargantuan level of ignorance that you're projecting onto the rest of the scientific community when it's really just your own.

I FEEL sorry for how seriously you take yourself #OnHere sometimes, but hey.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by Strongside

I FEEL sorry for how seriously you take yourself #OnHere sometimes, but hey.

Uninformed ideas about public health have real life consequences. It's a lot more important than what happens in a football game, and it absolutely should be taken seriously.