***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by dlphg9

Why do you always have to play some contrarian dumb shit? A vaccine would "possibly" get us back to normal faster? Things won't go back to normal until a vast majority of people aren't scared and a lot of people aren't going to lose their fear just because there are some ways to treat COVID19. A large number of people say they aren't going back to their previous lifestyle until there is a vaccine.

They might be waiting a long while......might not either.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Possibly. But then so could other effective treatments for that matter.

Preventing this virus makes more sense than finding a cure/treatment.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Monticore

Preventing this virus makes more sense than finding a cure/treatment.

I don't disagree at all. That really wasn't anything I was arguing either.

[Donger]

I fail to see why anyone has any reason to think we'll never have a vaccine for SARS-CoV-2. The experts seem to have reason to think with high confidence that we will, and relatively soon.

[petegz28]

So what's so special about September that all the projections are showing a rise in everything?

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by petegz28

So what's so special about September that all the projections are showing a rise in everything?

Schools

[eDave]

Originally Posted by lewdog

Schools

Protests aside, wait until we start going outside again. Starting in September.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by lewdog

Schools

Even after the studies that said closing the schools had minimal impact?

[jdubya]

A friend of mine just told me his brother, his brothers wife and their young daughter all tested positive. The husband and daughter had the "sniffles" for 3 days and it was gone. The wife was sick for a week with what felt like a "really bad cold" but was fine after a week. The wife got it from a nursing home she worked at so had the higher viral load exposure......but still got off relatively light.

[Donger]

Oregon Gov. Kate Brown announced Friday that the state is putting a seven-day pause on further county reopenings statewide due to a spike in new Covid-19 cases.

"This is essentially a statewide yellow light," Brown said during a news conference.

She said that the state was aware there could be a spike in cases as restrictions were lifted. "Unfortunately, we are now seeing that happen in several parts of the state in both rural and urban Oregon," Brown said.

[Donger]

Utah Gov. Gary Herbert has paused the lifting of restrictions following spikes in Covid-19 cases over the past two weeks.

The governor said during a news conference Thursday that the increase in cases is “giving them pause.”

The state will remain in the "yellow" phase of reopening with the exception of one county, Brooke Scheffler, public information officer for Herbert, told CNN in a text Friday.

She also confirmed that Salt Lake City will remain in the "orange" phase, which is below yellow.

[Donger]

An influential model cited by the White House issued the dire prediction, saying the US death toll could reach 169,890 by October 1, with a possible range of about 133,000 to 290,000 deaths.

Daily deaths are expected to decrease through June and July, then remain relatively stable through August before rising sharply in September, the model forecasts.

“If the US is unable to check the growth in September, we could be facing worsening trends in October, November and the following months if the pandemic, as we expect, follows pneumonia seasonality,” said Dr. Christopher Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington School of Medicine.

Many states have loosened restrictions that began in March to stop the spread of the virus. But with no vaccine, more people congregating in public places and recent protests for racial justice in major cities, one health expert predicted that the nation’s coronavirus death toll will nearly double by September.

“I think right now, most Americans are not ready to lock back down, and I completely understand that. … I understand people are willing to live alongside this virus. It means that between 800 and 1,000 Americans are going to die every single day,” Dr. Ashish Jha, director of the Harvard Global Health Institute, told CNN.

[Chief Pagan]

Originally Posted by Eleazar

and just as many would refuse to get the vaccine even if there was one

Hopefully we a get a vaccine and find out.

I would think that schools that currently require certain vaccines would similarly require covid.

I wonder if the Feds would consider a vaccination as a prerequisite to being allowed to fly.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Chief Pagan

Hopefully we a get a vaccine and find out.

I would think that schools that currently require certain vaccines would similarly require covid.

I wonder if the Feds would consider a vaccination as a prerequisite to being allowed to fly.

I think it's going to be a couple years before it is "required". I can't blame parents for not forcing their kid to take something that has been around for a couple weeks when as a kid they are not a high risk anyhow.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by Donger

An influential model cited by the White House issued the dire prediction, saying the US death toll could reach 169,890 by October 1, with a possible range of about 133,000 to 290,000 deaths.

Daily deaths are expected to decrease through June and July, then remain relatively stable through August before rising sharply in September, the model forecasts.

“If the US is unable to check the growth in September, we could be facing worsening trends in October, November and the following months if the pandemic, as we expect, follows pneumonia seasonality,” said Dr. Christopher Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington School of Medicine.

Many states have loosened restrictions that began in March to stop the spread of the virus. But with no vaccine, more people congregating in public places and recent protests for racial justice in major cities, one health expert predicted that the nation’s coronavirus death toll will nearly double by September.

“I think right now, most Americans are not ready to lock back down, and I completely understand that. … I understand people are willing to live alongside this virus. It means that between 800 and 1,000 Americans are going to die every single day,” Dr. Ashish Jha, director of the Harvard Global Health Institute, told CNN.

The IHME model may very well be right, but to this point its track record hasn't been all that impressive.