***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Donger]

Originally Posted by cookster50

Yeah, I saw an article the other day about Branson. They where hyping the fact that the number of cases doubled from what they were in March. But then later in the article it said it went from 12 daily to 24 daily. They made a huge deal about it doubling, but really, 12 to 24?

You don't think a doubling of cases is of any importance?

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by petegz28

So you're saying their study is bunk?

(sigh)

Someone grab the crayons again.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by petegz28

So you're saying their study is bunk?

No. But to reduce mortality by 1/3, no one would need to be treated with corticosteroids in the ICU prior to this. Given that they are commonly used, although less so in certain cases applicable to COVID, don't expect a full 1/3 decrease in mortality like some were claiming

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

The numbers game is a funny one to watch. Our local news station publishes the total case. number daily to try to draw attention to their site. Obviously the total accumulated cases is the biggest scariest number they can use.

That's no joke....we can do that to but will get the ire of CP. So let me preface, Covid is more dangerous than the flu.

That being said, is it really more contagious?

The flu season of 2018-2019 (October 18- March 19?) had 35.5 million people with the flu according to the CDC. So that's just under 6 million people a month.

Now I understand that is an estimate on the part of the CDC but considering we are on pace right now in this country for roughly 12 million cases in a 6 month time frame can we say the flu is more contagious?

But wait, there's more! The CDC estimates the people who have the flu so why not estimate how many people really have Covid? Let's say it's 3 times the amount of known cases. That puts us at roughly 7.5 million cases over the last 3.5 months with gets you roughly 2.1 million cases a month.

So just playing with numbers, can we say the flu is more contagious? IMO you could make the argument.

So on a more hopeful and literal note, as we develop more treatments for Covid and reduce the mortality rate we can see this comin in line with the flu, let's hope anyway.

[Donger]

Influenza has an R0 of ~2.8 and that's with virtually no mitigation efforts.

[Pants]

Originally Posted by petegz28

That's no joke....we can do that to but will get the ire of CP. So let me preface, Covid is more dangerous than the flu.

That being said, is it really more contagious?

The flu season of 2018-2019 (October 18- March 19?) had 35.5 million people with the flu according to the CDC. So that's just under 6 million people a month.

Now I understand that is an estimate on the part of the CDC but considering we are on pace right now in this country for roughly 12 million cases in a 6 month time frame can we say the flu is more contagious?

But wait, there's more! The CDC estimates the people who have the flu so why not estimate how many people really have Covid? Let's say it's 3 times the amount of known cases. That puts us at roughly 7.5 million cases over the last 3.5 months with gets you roughly 2.1 million cases a month.

So just playing with numbers, can we say the flu is more contagious? IMO you could make the argument.

So on a more hopeful and literal note, as we develop more treatments for Covid and reduce the mortality rate we can see this comin in line with the flu, let's hope anyway.

Yup. I remember that crazy quarantine and all the lockdowns for the 2018 - 2019 flu season. Amazing comparison. Apples to apples.

Here comes a post from pete asking me where exactly he compared the flu to SARS 2.

You can't make this shit up.

[Mecca]

I seriously hope Pete is being purposely obtuse and isn't missing a chromosome.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Pants

Yup. I remember that crazy quarantine and all the lockdowns for the 2018 - 2019 flu season. Amazing comparison. Apples to apples.

Here comes a post from pete asking me where exactly he compared the flu to SARS 2.

You can't make this shit up.

Apparently you did not read the post ....it's rather obvious

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Mecca

I seriously hope Pete is being purposely obtuse and isn't missing a chromosome.

That goes for you as well. Did you actually read what I posted? No, you didn't. Don't even pretend you did.

[Pants]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Apparently you did not read the post ....it's rather obvious

Of course I read your post. In it, you asked:

Originally Posted by petegz28

So just playing with numbers, can we say the flu is more contagious? IMO you could make the argument.

The questions came after you provided some rough number totals where you compared the estimated number of flu cases to SARS 2 cases.

What did I miss?

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Pants

Of course I read your post. In it, you asked:



The questions came after you provided some rough number totals where you compared the estimated number of flu cases to SARS 2 cases.

What did I miss?

Rough numbers??? Alright, man, what the **** ever.

We know what the CDC said about how many flu cases there were.

We know how many known cases of Covid there are.

I even increased the number of Covid cased by a factor of 3.

Get the **** out of here.

And the entire point of the post which you grossly missed was how you can play with the numbers. Since I was replying to a post about how you can play with the numbers.

[Pants]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Rough numbers??? Alright, man, what the **** ever.

We know what the CDC said about how many flu cases there were.

We know how many known cases of Covid there are.

I even increased the number of Covid cased by a factor of 3.

Get the **** out of here.

Okay, so I never even questioned your numbers in my original post. I am not arguing those at all.

I question the validity of taking those numbers and comparing them in a vacuum.

I literally get dizzy when I try to think how anyone can arrive to the conclusion that the flu is more contagious than SARS 2 given everything that has transpired in the entire world since 12/2019.

But I only wanted to bring to your attention that it may be somewhat asinine to compare the flu to SARS 2 when the mitigation efforts for one are not even close to the other.

Hence my sarcastic post about that quarantine and lock downs for the 2018 - 2019 flu season.

[tk13]

Originally Posted by petegz28

That's no joke....we can do that to but will get the ire of CP. So let me preface, Covid is more dangerous than the flu.

That being said, is it really more contagious?

The flu season of 2018-2019 (October 18- March 19?) had 35.5 million people with the flu according to the CDC. So that's just under 6 million people a month.

Now I understand that is an estimate on the part of the CDC but considering we are on pace right now in this country for roughly 12 million cases in a 6 month time frame can we say the flu is more contagious?

But wait, there's more! The CDC estimates the people who have the flu so why not estimate how many people really have Covid? Let's say it's 3 times the amount of known cases. That puts us at roughly 7.5 million cases over the last 3.5 months with gets you roughly 2.1 million cases a month.

So just playing with numbers, can we say the flu is more contagious? IMO you could make the argument.

So on a more hopeful and literal note, as we develop more treatments for Covid and reduce the mortality rate we can see this comin in line with the flu, let's hope anyway.

I don't think you can say that with any kind of confidence because the country was shut down for two months. We had that many cases while actively trying to prevent the spread, which we never do with the flu. We have no idea yet how many cases there would be if people were allowed to go to work and church like normal.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Pants

Okay, so I never even questioned your numbers in my original post. I am not arguing those at all.

I question the validity of taking those numbers and comparing them in a vacuum.

I literally get dizzy when I try to think how anyone can arrive to the conclusion that the flu is more contagious than SARS 2 given everything that has transpired in the entire world since 12/2019.

But I only wanted to bring to your attention that it may be somewhat asinine to compare the flu to SARS 2 when the mitigation efforts for one are not even close to the other.

Like I said, you missed the entire point of the post to begin with. And to be literal, we have a flu vaccine and still had 35 million cases so just ****ing stop already.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by tk13

I don't think you can say that with any kind of confidence because the country was shut down for two months. We had that many cases while actively trying to prevent the spread, which we never do with the flu. We have no idea yet how many cases there would be if people were allowed to go to work and church like normal.

Again, the point was how you can play with the numbers, as in the media and their headlines.