***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Bob Dole]

Originally Posted by Donger

What's ridiculous about it? WITH MITIGATION, we've already lost 120,000, right in the estimate range. So, since that was accurate, why do you think the estimate without mitigation was/is not?

Of course, we'll never know for certain, because thankfully mitigation efforts were taken.

Number of test given is widely reported, so I don;t know where you're getting that.

There is zero proof that all this mitigation did anything vis-à-vis the virus. It is 100% speculation. There is ample evidence it had other effects, though.

I have yet to see a report touting "DAILY RECORD FOR POSITIVE COVID-19 CASES" that mentions whether it was also a record day for tests administered.

[Chief Pagan]

Originally Posted by Bob Dole

There is zero proof that all this mitigation did anything vis-à-vis the virus. It is 100% speculation. There is ample evidence it had other effects, though.

Yes. It's a shame that covid only struck America and there are no other countries that we can look at to see which strategies worked and which didn't.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Bob Dole

There is zero proof that all this mitigation did anything vis-à-vis the virus. It is 100% speculation. There is ample evidence it had other effects, though.

I have yet to see a report touting "DAILY RECORD FOR POSITIVE COVID-19 CASES" that mentions whether it was also a record day for tests administered.

You must be joking... You actually think that we would have "only" 2,200,000 cases and 120,000 deaths if we hadn't mitigated? You do realize that this is spread by humans, yes?

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by R Clark

I’ve yet to read anything about number of test given in this thread?might have missed it I guess

As of now there have been 27,782,538 tests given.
As of now we have a total of 2.3m cases
As of now we have 1.7m active cases

It would be nice to see a breakdown of the total cases on asymptomatic, symptomatic, mild, severe, etc.

[Three7s]

Originally Posted by petegz28

As of now there have been 27,782,538 tests given.
As of now we have a total of 2.3m cases
As of now we have 1.7m active cases

It would be nice to see a breakdown of the total cases on asymptomatic, symptomatic, mild, severe, etc.

Thanks to the increased testing, both in the US and worldwide, it is pretty easy to see the difference in the serious cases compared to the non-serious cases. According to worldometers, serious cases of covid-19 make up about 1% of all current active cases. I can't speak for how many serious cases are in the US, but when there are millions of cases going on worldwide, yet only 1% of them are serious, it just proves that most positive tests really aren't that big of deal. This really shows in the death rate too. I think this has always been the case, but since hospitals were so strict with testing in the beginning, we really couldn't get a feel for it.

[tk13]

Originally Posted by Bob Dole

There is zero proof that all this mitigation did anything vis-à-vis the virus. It is 100% speculation. There is ample evidence it had other effects, though.

I have yet to see a report touting "DAILY RECORD FOR POSITIVE COVID-19 CASES" that mentions whether it was also a record day for tests administered.

Zero proof? That's not accurate. We are not the only country in the world, so we have plenty of examples out there of ways to mitigate and strategies that have failed.

Just to be clear, those numbers are out there. And they get reported on. A lot of times people make statements like that and just haven't looked hard enough.

That's why people have been concerned about places like Texas and Arizona. They aren't just having more cases, their positive test rates aren't going down... in many cases they're going up.

Even more importantly, hospital rates are going up. If more people are getting sick enough to go to the hospital over it, that's what's happening. I don't know how that's a debatable fact. The cases/testing thing doesn't even matter. If there are more people in the hospital with COVID than back in March, then it's pretty safe to guess there's something going on there.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by tk13

Zero proof? That's not accurate. We are not the only country in the world, so we have plenty of examples out there of ways to mitigate and strategies that have failed.

Just to be clear, those numbers are out there. And they get reported on. A lot of times people make statements like that and just haven't looked hard enough.

That's why people have been concerned about places like Texas and Arizona. They aren't just having more cases, their positive test rates aren't going down... in many cases they're going up.

Even more importantly, hospital rates are going up. If more people are getting sick enough to go to the hospital over it, that's what's happening. I don't know how that's a debatable fact. The cases/testing thing doesn't even matter. If there are more people in the hospital with COVID than back in March, then it's pretty safe to guess there's something going on there.

You left out CA for some reason.

[TLO]

One of the things I've noticed about Missouri is that total number of cases per day seems to be going up, but cumulative % of positive tests has stayed the same or dropped slightly.

[tk13]

Originally Posted by petegz28

You left out CA for some reason.

What? There are plenty of states going in the right direction, and even seeing cases go down. There are other states that are not going in the right direction. That's how it was always going to be.

I don't think that 120,000 deaths later the whole thing was just a big hoax like you do though, no.

[TLO]

It has actually dropped in recent days despite more tests coming back positive. 5.5% currently. At one point we were at like 10%

[stumppy]

One of the mods needs to change the name of the damn thread to Groundhog Day.

[Donger]

"We're done with the pandemic!!!"

Well, the pandemic's not done with us...

[Eleazar]

Originally Posted by TLO

It has actually dropped in recent days despite more tests coming back positive. 5.5% currently. At one point we were at like 10%

There are tons of reasons why the positivity rate might fluctuate that have nothing to do with the true infection rate.

The only measures that really matter are hospital beds in use, ICU beds in use, ventilators in use, etc.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by TLO

One of the things I've noticed about Missouri is that total number of cases per day seems to be going up, but cumulative % of positive tests has stayed the same or dropped slightly.

When you cherry picked Texas and Arizona I was saying you also left out CA for some reason.


One can only infer that you picked those two states because of their more lenient approach on re-opening. I thought it necessary to point out that CA who has been rather strict is also having similar problems. Kudos to the closing straw man you threw out there as well.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Eleazar

There are tons of reasons why the positivity rate might fluctuate that have nothing to do with the true infection rate.

The only measures that really matter are hospital beds in use, ICU beds in use, ventilators in use, etc.

Yes, those matter but we have clearly moved from deaths to the metrics you mentioned so there is something to say for that.