***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by stumppy

You have a link to that graph?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by Bowser

Not necessarily doubting the effectiveness of distancing and the rest, but how about the thought that the virus has been on our shores way longer than reported?

I'm not sure why that matters. It's certainly possible that it was here for a while and just being misdiagnosed. That doesn't change the fact that SOMETHING slowed it down.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by DaFace

I'm not sure why that matters. It's certainly possible that it was here for a while and just being misdiagnosed. That doesn't change the fact that SOMETHING slowed it down.

I think it's fair to say mitigation slowed it. To what degree we don't know and can only guess. It's like the mask argument. You cannot say for sure to what degree these steps help because you cannot have a completely parallel scenario where you don't use mitigation to compare too.

So since you don't have any comparable scientific data to compare to the best you can do is make an educated guess.

It's like saying if the Chiefs didn't run "that play" they would have won when in reality you don't know that unless you rewind and run a different play which obviously you cannot do.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by petegz28

I think it's fair to say mitigation slowed it. To what degree we don't know and can only guess. It's like the mask argument. You cannot say for sure to what degree these steps help because you cannot have a completely parallel scenario where you don't use mitigation to compare too.



So since you don't have any comparable scientific data to compare to the best you can do is make an educated guess.



It's like saying if the Chiefs didn't run "that play" they would have won when in reality you don't know that unless you rewind and run a different play which obviously you cannot do.

So what else DID slow it down?

[R Clark]

Originally Posted by DaFace

So what else DID slow it down?

Certainly wasn’t hot weather

[TwistedChief]

Originally Posted by petegz28

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I’d love it if that chart augured good things, but we know the deaths come at a lag versus the infections. So declining death rates as the cases spike hardly provides an all-clear signal. Though I imagine given the cohort infected the death rate will be much lower.

“It takes two to three weeks after infection for a person to be in critical condition or to die, so death curves generally follow along behind infection curves, something like one to two weeks delayed," Benjamin Neuman, chair of biological sciences at Texas A&M University-Texarkana, told Business Insider.

[dlphg9]

Originally Posted by DaFace

So what else DID slow it down?

Gonna have to give them time to answer that question. They haven't had their weekly Nutjob meeting to come up with a good opinion on the matter that they can all agree upon.

[Eleazar]

You should go to twitter and follow @ethicalskeptic

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by DaFace

So what else DID slow it down?

You obviously don't want to accept how things work and that's your choice. You have no way of proving to what extend mitigation did or didn't help. It helped. To what degree you can't say for sure. You can only provide an educated guess.

That's not me arguing with you. That's you arguing with how shit works.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by dlphg9

Gonna have to give them time to answer that question. They haven't had their weekly Nutjob meeting to come up with a good opinion on the matter that they can all agree upon.

Why don't you just save us all time and tell us all factually exactly how much mitigation worked? Not how much you think it worked. Not how much it appears to have worked. But factually exactly how much it did work.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by TwistedChief

I’d love it if that chart augured good things, but we know the deaths come at a lag versus the infections. So declining death rates as the cases spike hardly provides an all-clear signal. Though I imagine given the cohort infected the death rate will be much lower.

First, I didn't post the graph

Second, he asked for a link to the graph and I gave him one

Third, I don't necessarily disagree with your take

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by petegz28

You obviously don't want to accept how things work and that's your choice. You have no way of proving to what extend mitigation did or didn't help. It helped. To what degree you can't say for sure. You can only provide an educated guess.



That's not me arguing with you. That's you arguing with how shit works.

How what works? What's your answer to the question?

[Chief Pagan]

Originally Posted by stumppy

One of the mods needs to change the name of the damn thread to Groundhog Day.

Quick. Somebody get Bill Murray and Andie MacDowell to spend the night together...

...and virus be gone!

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by DaFace

How what works? What's your answer to the question?

We cannot say for a fact exactly to what extent mitigation helped or didn't. There is no possible way to do so because we don't have a parallel reality in which we did 0 mitigation to compare it to. All we can do is make an educated guess.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by petegz28

We cannot say for a fact exactly to what extent mitigation helped or didn't. There is no possible way to do so because we don't have a parallel reality in which we did 0 mitigation to compare it to. All we can do is make an educated guess.

"I don't know" is a valid response.