***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[TLO]

This shit has got me feeling depressed again. We as a country aren't going to collectively wear masks. We aren't going to continue to social distance. We pretty much seem ****ed.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by TLO

This shit has got me feeling depressed again. We as a country aren't going to collectively wear masks. We aren't going to continue to social distance. We pretty much seem ****ed.

Pretty much. It kind of is what it is until there's a vaccine. People aren't willing to compromise to make it better without one.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Really good breakdown of COVID numbers and ICU capacity from a Houston hospital system. Don't see much Giannis Antetokounmpo salting of the numbers here.

https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-upda...monday-sunday/

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by TLO

This shit has got me feeling depressed again. We as a country aren't going to collectively wear masks. We aren't going to continue to social distance. We pretty much seem ****ed.

You should read Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire.

[TwistedChief]

Originally Posted by DaFace

It's mostly just a deterrent. Speeding tickets aren't meant to find everyone who speeds. They're to keep the general population in line.

Yup, if you know a 10k fine is possible, that alone is a deterrent even if you're 90% sure you won't be caught.

But let's be clear: there were other parts of the country that acted the same way toward New Yorkers in supercilious fashion when NYC was the world's hotspot. There's some schadenfreude at work here and it's not unwarranted.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

I posted this in mid-May explaining how caseload numbers can be deceiving given that we were coming off of a lockdown. I think it's worth reading again.

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Thought experiment: I give you a pill. You take it with some water. Are you absorbing the drug or getting rid of it? You're actually doing both at the same time, but the rate of absorption compared to the rate of elimination affects the amount of drug in your blood.

If you are absorbing it faster than your are eliminating it, the levels go up. If you've taken the drug for a while and I start giving you a smaller dose, even though you're absorbing the drug, your levels will go down because you're eliminating more than you're absorbing.

The population is doing the same thing.

Let's go back to our old friend R0 and let's assume that the virus goes away after 14 days and people only transmit the virus over five days.

Say I have a virus with 10,000 active cases and I institute a lockdown. It gets the R0 to 0.8. After five days, those 10,000 people infect 8,000 more and those 8,000 infect 6400 more, and those 6400 infect 5120 more and those 5120 infect 4096 more.

Over 20 days, 23616 people have caught the virus who didn't have it before for a total of 33,616 cases.

Is the epidemic getting better or worse? It looks like it's getting worse on the surface because the caseload is higher, but it's actually dying out. I only have 15,616 active cases and in another five days I'll have 3277 more, but 6400 will have recovered.

Day 25: Active cases: 18,893-6400=12,493

Now, let's say that I break the lockdown on that day and the R0 increases to 1.2

After 5 days how many active cases do I have?

Day 30: Active cases 12,493-5120+3932=11,305

I have fewer active cases on Day 30, so my epidemic is getting better right?

It's not.

What I've done with the lockdown is decrease my R0, and I've also decreased the number of infectious people, but by reopening I've increased R0 and increased infections, but the increase is being hidden by the decrease from the previous cases who are getting better, because it decreases the pool of people who can infect others, but only for a while.

After five iterations of an R0 of 0.8:

10,000 people infect 8,000 who infect 6400 who infect 5120 who infect 4096

After five iterations of R0 of 1.2

4096 infect 4915 who infect 5898 who infect 7077 who infect 8493

Now, if I look at it after two iterations, which is worse?

On the surface the R0 of 0.8, right? 6400 new infections compared to 5898.

But that's not the case.

[Pasta Little Brioni]

Originally Posted by TLO

This shit has got me feeling depressed again. We as a country aren't going to collectively wear masks. We aren't going to continue to social distance. We pretty much seem ****ed.

Calm down JFC

[jdubya]

Originally Posted by TLO

This shit has got me feeling depressed again. We as a country aren't going to collectively wear masks. We aren't going to continue to social distance. We pretty much seem ****ed.

I’m more upset with the political climate than C19. But if you’re depressed you just need to shut down the news and social media for a day or 2 and just chill. Especially the news media. They are selling doom and gloom better than ever.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by Pasta Giant Meatball

Calm down JFC

I wish I could.

Originally Posted by jdubya

I’m more upset with the political climate than C19. But if you’re depressed you just need to shut down the news and social media for a day or 2 and just chill. Especially the news media. They are selling doom and gloom better than ever.

I need to force myself to do so, but I seriously can't look away. It's like watching a train wreck.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by TLO

I wish I could.



I need to force myself to do so, but I seriously can't look away. It's like watching a train wreck.

Don't let the media hype get to you and that is what a lot of this is. There is a lot of overreaction going on. We flattened the curve like we set out to do and the vast majority of hospitals are doing just fine.

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Really good breakdown of COVID numbers and ICU capacity from a Houston hospital system. Don't see much Giannis Antetokounmpo salting of the numbers here.

https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-upda...monday-sunday/

28,000 beds man!

/Bleeding Red

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by DaFace

It's mostly just a deterrent. Speeding tickets aren't meant to find everyone who speeds. They're to keep the general population in line.

Yeah, it's $200 in Phoenix if you don't wear a mask in public places, but they're going to warn people for a while and what not, and it's not like they're going to canvas the city with cops to find people.


And I think of speeding tickets as a tax, and one I'd actually pay in order to keep speeding.... one ticket every couple years, averaging out to ~$50/year, meh. Granted, I haven't had one in 5+ years at this point, mostly due to living in Arizona, where 10-15 over is the norm.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Bearcat

Yeah, it's $200 in Phoenix if you don't wear a mask in public places, but they're going to warn people for a while and what not, and it's not like they're going to canvas the city with cops to find people.


And I think of speeding tickets as a tax, and one I'd actually pay in order to keep speeding.... one ticket every couple years, averaging out to ~$50/year, meh. Granted, I haven't had one in 5+ years at this point, mostly due to living in Arizona, where 10-15 over is the norm.

In Sacramento the Sheriff said he wouldn't enforce the law because it is such a minor infraction and the potential for a "bad outcome" when trying to impose the law wasn't worth it.

[Gravedigger]

If you wanted herd immunity, the likelihood of it with the protests and people not taking the virus seriously is pretty high now. Spikes in cases can be attributed to both I’m sure.

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Really good breakdown of COVID numbers and ICU capacity from a Houston hospital system. Don't see much Giannis Antetokounmpo salting of the numbers here.

https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-upda...monday-sunday/

Interesting, just linking pics from other pages...