***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[O.city]

https://academic.oup.com/cid/article...iaa794/5862649

Good news on getting back in schools

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by O.city

I think it’s pretty obvious now something happened about 3 weeks ago to cause all these spikes in younger people

Damn

Some thing, or some things? The most obvious thing seems to be that states that ignored safety precautions during reopening are seeing the biggest surges.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501

Some thing, or some things? The most obvious thing seems to be that states that ignored safety precautions during reopening are seeing the biggest surges.

You’d have had surges earlier if that were solely the case.

In the end, its probably a combination

[Chitownchiefsfan]

Originally Posted by O.city

You’d have had surges earlier if that were solely the case.

In the end, its probably a combination

It is probably a combination but i wonder why the surges are hitting texas, Arizona and Florida so hard and not here in Illinois.

We had massive protests in the 3rd largest city and we haven't had major spikes.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Chitownchiefsfan

It is probably a combination but i wonder why the surges are hitting texas, Arizona and Florida so hard and not here in Illinois.

We had massive protests in the 3rd largest city and we haven't had major spikes.

Few reasons....

Protests
Re-opening
Indoors because it's hot so people to to the AC
Mexico had a bad surge as I understand it

Florida is a bit of an enigma but again go back to the AC issue. And I assume a lot of travel to Florida as well.

[O.city]

Places that were hit hard early aren’t hit hard now. Possibly theyve hit enough immunity to slow it way down

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by O.city

Places that were hit hard early aren’t hit hard now. Possibly theyve hit enough immunity to slow it way down

That's a good point as well. And just some perspective, Illinois has more cases than Florida and less cases that Texas but more deaths than both.

Also we don't know how many younglings are running around in these cities are and are not symptomatic either.

[petegz28]

Another glass half full take I think is the fact CA has passed NJ for the #2 state in total cases for well over a week now and they have just over 14k less deaths.

I realize it's different living conditions but hopefully that's also a sign we are learning things.

[Donger]

I guess we get to throw Georgia into the mix.

[O.city]

Mortality in hospitals has dropped significantly as well so as long as we can keep them from overrunning we’re gonna hopefully be fine there

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by O.city

Places that were hit hard early aren’t hit hard now. Possibly theyve hit enough immunity to slow it way down

It's still hard to believe that could be a factor, but we can certainly hope that's part of it.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DaFace

It's still hard to believe that could be a factor, but we can certainly hope that's part of it.

With the findings that mild and asymptomatic infections don’t always show antibody seroconversion, I think there’s some things to the fact that serology studies miss a lot. It’s possible New York and Chicago are already at or close to immunity. When you look at places like Italy and others that were hit hard, the curve down is just to damn similar to be a coincidence in my mind.

The argument against is always the deaths, but I think we’re finding that a lot of that is due to poor planning ie sending people back to nursing homes and age stratification etc.

New York also had issues in the hospitals of incubating early and not having the experience we have today on how to treat this. Same with Lombardy.

[O.city]

Woth the findings of the T cell stuff, we’re also finding that herd immunity isn’t gonna be a specific number that’s the same everywhere. Just so many factors here.

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by O.city

You’d have had surges earlier if that were solely the case.

In the end, its probably a combination

June is also when some states moved to 50% indoors particularly bars and restaurants. Since the biggest issue seems to be people indoors, close quarters, long periods of time. Doesn't seem a coincidence that majority of surge states reopened more aggressively with minimal enforcement and a dismissive attitude about social distancing and masks.

[stumppy]

Originally Posted by Chitownchiefsfan

It is probably a combination but i wonder why the surges are hitting texas, Arizona and Florida so hard and not here in Illinois.

We had massive protests in the 3rd largest city and we haven't had major spikes.

Prepare for a stream of CPDC regulars to berate you with the old fake news, joke science, agenda driven replies.