***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[O.city]

Originally Posted by TLO

Something I've been pondering on today..

We've all seen that the CDC has claimed that for every case diagnosed, 10 are missed.

Doesn't that make case count numbers virtually irrelevant?

It makes it important to see what the percent positives you’re getting are. The lower they are the better and more widespread your testing is

But with the asymptomatic spread and such it’s just damn near impossible

[TLO]

SARS-CoV-2 has been circulating in northern Italy since December 2019: evidence from environmental monitoring

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....25.20140061v1

[O.city]

I think that’s pretty obvious at this point

[Eleazar]

Originally Posted by O.city

It makes it important to see what the percent positives you’re getting are. The lower they are the better and more widespread your testing is

But with the asymptomatic spread and such it’s just damn near impossible

Looking at it from the other end of the timeline instead of trying to watch it as it’s happening is helpful.

In New York, they went from nearly zero known infections at the beginning of March to what some people think might be 2 or 3 million total infections by the time their peak had passed in mid April.

For that to happen in 45 days they would have needed to average 50,000 new infections a day over the whole outbreak. Since it wouldn’t have been linear, probably at the height it was more like 100,000. An incredible transmission rate.

But, New York is a tinderbox. Overcrowding, mass transit, buildings with shared ventilation, tons of multigenerational households, etc etc

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Eleazar

Looking at it from the other end of the timeline instead of trying to watch it as it’s happening is helpful.

In New York, they went from nearly zero known infections at the beginning of March to what some people think might be 2 or 3 million total infections by the time their peak had passed in mid April.

For that to happen in 45 days they would have needed to average 50,000 new infections a day over the whole outbreak. Since it wouldn’t have been linear, probably at the height it was more like 100,000. An incredible transmission rate.

The outbreaks had to have started earlier than we think

[O.city]

It’s just weird to see countries that did well and are unexplainable like japan and Australia

[petegz28]

Worldometers is on pace for new deaths today to be at or slightly below Saturday of last week

[TLO]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Worldometers is on pace for new deaths today to be at or slightly below Saturday of last week

512 looks like the final count unless there's some late additions. 582 last Saturday.

[RustShack]

Everyone knew it would jump up again after reopening. In the first place it was just about flattening the curve. So what happens now? Let it play out or are we shutting down again?

It’s just wild to me that a few weeks ago(maybe a month?) they were talking about hospitals going out of business because they weren’t getting enough “business” anymore. Side note which annoys me because I want my son checked out about something and they aren’t taking customers due to COVID... MAYBE taking customers would help you financially??

[Eleazar]

Originally Posted by TLO

512 looks like the final count unless there's some late additions. 582 last Saturday.

It's down to about 5 deaths per day in this state. It's really a pandemic of about 10 states right now. If it weren't for these bars and large parties we'd probably be saying wave 1 is over.

[Bearcat]

(might have to click on it a time or two for it to start)

[OC] Covid 19 cases/million growth - Data of top 20 GDP countries. from r/dataisbeautiful

[Chief Pagan]

Originally Posted by O.city

It’s just weird to see countries that did well and are unexplainable like japan and Australia

Japan has an extremely high mask wearing rate.



And even though it is a densely populated place, they don't do hand shakes, hugs, etc. They even tend to stand farther apart when talking.

They never locked down, but the government quietly focused on hotspots.

Australia I don't know.

[Bugeater]

Originally Posted by Bearcat

(might have to click on it a time or two for it to start)

I have no idea what exactly is going on here, but the US being on top and China at the bottom makes it smell like bullshit.

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by Bugeater

I have no idea what exactly is going on here, but the US being on top and China at the bottom makes it smell like bullshit.

It's an animated version of this graph over time, and it looks like they filtered out some smaller countries... either way, the US is #1 and China relatively has their shit together now.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/inf...covid19-curve/

[Bugeater]

Ehhh....there's something more to this. Election year...divided nation...nothing seems to be off limits. I'll leave it at that. Call me a conspiritard...I don't ****ing care one goddamn bit. I'm not ****ing stupid.