***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by DaFace

My issue is that this is NOT the decision that is being made. There are no 8 year olds dying that the 80 year olds have to save. The kids are fine.
That's why I have a major issue with this whole idea that it's acceptable to not care as much because they're old.

All you are doing is tossing out a straw man. I don't know anyone who is saying that at all. You asked why someone would view the difference between an 0 year old dying and an 8. If you can't grasp that then that's on you but that doesn't mean people don't care about older people.

[Donger]

So another day with over 40,000 new cases and people are still arguing about masks.

Makes sense.

[Monticore]

No symptoms, big problems: Scientists still puzzled by asymptomatic coronavirus cases


http://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/techno...gNb9&ocid=iehp

Dr. Jorge Mercado, a pulmonologist and critical care doctor at New York University's Langone Hospital-Brooklyn, said scientists still aren't sure why some people who have been exposed to the virus get very sick, while others develop no symptoms.

"We really don't know much about this disease," he said. "We know a little more than we did three months ago, but there are still a lot of things we don't have answers to

In CT scans of all the study participants, the researchers found signs of lung inflammation, known as pulmonary infiltrates, even in people who showed no symptoms. Signatures of inflammation were observed in 57 percent of the asymptomatic group

It makes you wonder if they really were asymptomatic, because clearly they had some pneumonia," he said. "It just goes to show that the absence of symptoms is not the absence of infection."

Until we know how much transmission asymptomatic people are responsible for, it makes an incredible amount of sense to keep stressing that everyone should wear a mask," she said. "If you happen to be in that category and you're wearing a mask, that's going to keep you from infecting people and putting those viral particles out in the environment. And everyone else wearing a mask is doing the same for you

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by DaFace

My issue is that this is NOT the decision that is being made. There are no 8 year olds dying that the 80 year olds have to save. The kids are fine.
That's why I have a major issue with this whole idea that it's acceptable to not care as much because they're old.

I've always said we need to protect nursing homes. However if I was a high risk individual I would rather have a higher risk of getting Covid than have my kids and grandkids deal with years of economic issues because of it. BUT that's just me being unselfish.

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Not sure how you interpret "80 year olds dying abd 8 year olds dying doesn't have the same impact." That sounds like "they're old so screw them" to me.

Lay off the alcohol bro.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

I've always said we need to protect nursing homes. However if I was a high risk individual I would rather have a higher risk of getting Covid than have my kids and grandkids deal with years of economic issues because of it. BUT that's just me being unselfish.

The ones who appeared to "not care about old people" are the Governors that put people who had Covid into nursing homes. Again, the report I cited the other day showed nearly half of the deaths are linked to nursing homes. That means about 60,000 people died both old and young in large part by the actions of some governors that didn't care about old people.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by Donger

So another day with over 40,000 new cases and people are still arguing about masks.

Makes sense.

No kidding plus it seems we still have to explain the timeline of how Covid 19 progresses from infection to death 4 months into this pandemic. This isn't instantaneous it takes a month to 6 weeks or longer.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

No kidding plus it seems we still have to explain the timeline of how Covid 19 progresses from infection to death 4 months into this pandemic. This isn't instantaneous it takes a month to 6 weeks or longer.

That would go against what we have seen thus far. Again, the data is what it is, not what you want it to be. And at no time during the initial surge in cases did we see deaths decline. At no time. Deaths increased daily with cases and didn't decline until cases started to decline. Sure there is some lag but you can't revise things to be what they aren't because you want to make some kind of point.

Will the downtrend in deaths continue? Let's hope so. We certainly are seeing a divergence between deaths and cases at the moment anyway and you should be hoping it stays that way.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by petegz28

That would go against what we have seen thus far. Again, the data is what it is, not what you want it to be. And at no time during the initial surge in cases did we see deaths decline. At no time. Deaths increased daily with cases and didn't decline until cases started to decline. Sure there is some lag but you can't revise things to be what they aren't because you want to make some kind of point.

Will the downtrend in deaths continue? Let's hope so. We certainly are seeing a divergence between deaths and cases at the moment anyway and you should be hoping it stays that way.

Someone grab the crayons.

[OrtonsPiercedTaint]

If they will not wear a mask. You are free to throw your used tires in their yard.

[tyecopeland]

My county had an outbreak at a 'boys home". Tripled our covid cases. All but two of our 20 something active cases are attributed to that place, 3 are spouses of workers.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

No kidding plus it seems we still have to explain the timeline of how Covid 19 progresses from infection to death 4 months into this pandemic. This isn't instantaneous it takes a month to 6 weeks or longer.

Deaths lag infection? You're talking crazy.

I suppose we can "hope" that the majority of these new cases are younger people and the death numbers won't be as high. But how many of them infected the non-young? It's not like just because you are young, the R0 is less than one.

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by Donger

Deaths lag infection? You're talking crazy.

I suppose we can "hope" that the majority of these new cases are younger people and the death numbers won't be as high. But how many of them infected the non-young? It's not like just because you are young, the R0 is less than one.

Lags 6 weeks or more? No.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by petegz28

That would go against what we have seen thus far. Again, the data is what it is, not what you want it to be. And at no time during the initial surge in cases did we see deaths decline. At no time. Deaths increased daily with cases and didn't decline until cases started to decline. Sure there is some lag but you can't revise things to be what they aren't because you want to make some kind of point.

Will the downtrend in deaths continue? Let's hope so. We certainly are seeing a divergence between deaths and cases at the moment anyway and you should be hoping it stays that way.

I hope it stays that way as well but from the very beginning everybody says deaths lags by weeks. That is why the recovered number barely goes down because it takes a long time to either die or recover. The people that are dying today got infected a month ago.

Come Aug 1 we should have a better idea of those positive cases that has happened in the last couple of weeks.

Deaths are the ultimate lagging indicator, especially with Covid-19. It takes several weeks after a diagnosis for a patient to die. Then it takes more time, sometimes weeks, for doctors to fill out death certificates and health officials to adjudicate the deaths. Only then are they finally added to the official state tally.

“You can’t look at deaths as an indicator of where the outbreak is at this particular period of time,” said Amesh Adalja, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.

Waiting for data to roll in requires “patience that is hard to muster during a crisis,” said Joe Gerald, an associate professor of public health policy and management at the University of Arizona. But “if you want reliable, complete data, you have to wait for it, especially on deaths.”

In Arizona, the time between diagnosis and death from Covid-19 now is about 14 or 15 days, up from four or five days early in the pandemic. Then the state health department must verify the death, so there can be a three-plus week lag between a new case and a fatality being reported, Gerald said.

Half of the deaths reported for the week ending June 14 were more than a week old, so he expects it to take at least another week before he can reach any conclusions about the mortality rate for this surge. A modest bump could be expected with younger patients being hospitalized at a higher rate of hospitalization, Gerald said

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Not sure how you interpret "80 year olds dying abd 8 year olds dying doesn't have the same impact." That sounds like "they're old so screw them" to me.

What's another 10 or 20 years, anyway...