***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[loochy]

Originally Posted by lewdog

This is hospital data from the state of Arizona.

Ok, for the whole state. So according to 2019 estimates, 82% of the population is under 65. I'm not sure how that delta compares with the rest of the country (or world).

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by loochy

Indeed. But to Pete's defense, that's not what he asked. He asked about length of stay.

That’s a hard stat to track. I’ll reach out to some physicians and ask their opinion.

But if 58% of people are under 65 in the hospital and discharges were happening quick, we wouldn’t be reaching capacity here.

[loochy]

Originally Posted by lewdog

That’s a hard stat to track. I’ll reach out to some physicians and ask their opinion.

But if 58% of people are under 65 in the hospital and discharges were happening quick, we wouldn’t be reaching capacity here.

I edited my post....it seems too early to get a length of stay metric. It would undoubtedly be skewed to short stays because there's only been a short time for this most recent spike. The unresolved/unreleased patients wouldn't show up in the number yet.

[eDave]

Ronazona.

Cases: While this is the largest daily case total to date, we are playing catchup with the reporting issue from yesterday.

Testing: Highest PCR testing ever, but again due to catchup.

Spread: Overall PCR positive test percentage shot up from 11.7% to 12% (based on 532K tests, up from a 6.6% low) and the average for this week is 21% (based on 844 cases, up from 20% last week).

Hospital Utilization: COVID Hospitalizations are up about 2.6% (another all time high). ICU beds for COVID patients are up 0.5%. (Overall ICU bed usage went down from 88% to 86%). Ventilators in use for COVID dropped 2% for the 2nd day in a row.

[eDave]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

Arizona has a fairly old average population doesn't it?

Average Ages (2018)

• Phoenix: 33.5
• Kansas City: 35

[TLO]

Originally Posted by eDave

Ronazona.

Cases: While this is the largest daily case total to date, we are playing catchup with the reporting issue from yesterday.

Testing: Highest PCR testing ever, but again due to catchup.

Spread: Overall PCR positive test percentage shot up from 11.7% to 12% (based on 532K tests, up from a 6.6% low) and the average for this week is 21% (based on 844 cases, up from 20% last week).

Hospital Utilization: COVID Hospitalizations are up about 2.6% (another all time high). ICU beds for COVID patients are up 0.5%. (Overall ICU bed usage went down from 88% to 86%). Ventilators in use for COVID dropped 2% for the 2nd day in a row.

12% - Wow. We've been sitting around 5.5% - 5.6% in Missouri. I think our high was around 10% in April.

[Red Dawg]

Did you score?? #ToeDragSwag @tkelce https://t.co/KSGFCThoUf

— Patrick Mahomes II (@PatrickMahomes) June 30, 2020

[eDave]

Whoops.

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Great. But that's not what I asked. /facts

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Where’s your dad getting his info?

Also, if he ever needs rehab let me know!

[loochy]

Originally Posted by Red Dawg

Did you score?? #ToeDragSwag @tkelce https://t.co/KSGFCThoUf

— Patrick Mahomes II (@PatrickMahomes) June 30, 2020

So, was Pat running from a defender with Corona or something?

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by lewdog

Where’s your dad getting his info?

Also, if he ever needs rehab let me know!

I think it's just anecdotal chit-chat all the retirees are yapping about. What he said was they are hearing that because most of these cases are younger people they are getting admitted but aren't staying in the hospital very long. So that does inflate the number of beds used but for how long?

eDave's post I thought was encouraging where it stated that number of beds is up but number of ICU beds are down.

[petegz28]

Okay so the Worldometer number to stay under today is 871 if we want to continue the downtrend in new deaths. 871. Go play it as a Pick 3 even.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Okay so the Worldometer number to stay under today is 871 if we want to continue the downtrend in new deaths. 871. Go play it as a Pick 3 even.

I'm optimistic we may come in quite a bit lower than 871 today.

[petegz28]

Fauci out semi-fear mongering saying we could go to 100k cases a day "if things don't turn around". That's over double where we are now. I am not saying he is wrong but I remember being told we would have 3k deaths day by June 1st as well and we went in the complete opposite direction.

He did express concern with people gathering in mass crowds so shut down more bars I guess? Let the people riot in the streets.

I didn't listen to his testimony but did he express any kind of goal or metrics? We have completely flattened the curve. Even with the rise in cases thus far and thankfully it is not translating into deaths.

So you have to ask what is Fauci's goal? 10k cases a day? 0? He wanted more testing and naturally an increase in cases will go along with that so I wish these people would be a bit more clear. Maybe he was and it wasn't stated in the article I read.

[Donger]

How many times does pete have to have things explained to him before he understands? It's absolutely bizarre to behold.