***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Just curious if layoffs added to this? I know there were layoffs and such in AZ at hospitals like there have been pretty much everywhere else. Banner Health comes to mind but I don't know how big they are.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Banner is largest hospital network here. What I’m hearing is Banner doesn’t want to hire back furloughed nurses until they’ve “served” their time out so they can get a tax break from the furloughing. Also rumor there’s a tax break with hiring contract nurses. That’s just what I’m hearing through hospital case managers. Other issues are many nurses simply don’t want to come back to work under exhausting conditions and concerns with PPE treating COVID.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by petegz28

You mean because we have so much more testing.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

because of infections, not because of surveillance.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

because of infections, not because of surveillance.

Uh huh...2 months ago we were testing about 150k a day. Now we are almost at 600k.......

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

[Donger]

If curious, this shows number of tests per state and positives:

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/...ual-states/usa

Arizona approaching 20%, I guess.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by lewdog

Banner is largest hospital network here. What I’m hearing is Banner doesn’t want to hire back furloughed nurses until they’ve “served” their time out so they can get a tax break from the furloughing. Also rumor there’s a tax break with hiring contract nurses. That’s just what I’m hearing through hospital case managers. Other issues are many nurses simply don’t want to come back to work under exhausting conditions and concerns with PPE treating COVID.

That all sucks, lew. Delete that post and come back with something a little more positive!!!

Seriously though, that does suck. We are seeing this across the country. Our elected imbeciles who decided to keep hamstringing hospitals even after it was evident there wouldn't be a run on them are now a key reason why some hospitals are having a hard time. They actually broke there very thing they were trying to protect.

[Chitownchiefsfan]

Originally Posted by Donger

If curious, this shows number of tests per state and positives:

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/...ual-states/usa

Arizona approaching 20%, I guess.

So I'm comparing Illinois to arizona on this. Right now Illinois has twice as many tests and about 2.7 positive rate.

My question is why does Arizona have half as many tests considering the surge going on right now? Is it lack of tests, less people going in to be tested or just because they have a smaller population?

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Chitownchiefsfan

So I'm comparing Illinois to arizona on this. Right now Illinois has twice as many tests and about 2.7 positive rate.

My question is why does Arizona have half as many tests considering the surge going on right now? Is it lack of tests, less people going in to be tested or just because they have a smaller population?

There is a delay right now with getting the regent needed for testing as well as some other resource issues like not having enough machines in the labs to handle all the testing. Whether that is the issue with AZ I don't know. Also keep in mind that Illinois was slammed pretty hard early on while Az wasn't.

[Chitownchiefsfan]

Originally Posted by petegz28

There is a delay right now with getting the regent needed for testing as well as some other resource issues like not having enough machines in the labs to handle all the testing. Whether that is the issue with AZ I don't know.

I've also noticed Florida is doing at least 35,000 tests a day and Arizona has never done more than 20,000.

Seems like a shortcoming for Arizona.

[alnorth]

Until I created this map, I hadn't appreciated how bad the situation in the US is. These maps show districts with over 50 cases per 100k in the last week (Germany's "emergency brake" trigger for local lockdowns) in 🇩🇪, 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿, 🇺🇸

The USA right now has 1000 Leicesters or Güterslohs pic.twitter.com/seMnorew3h

— Ste JM 🚊🛰🐦 (@stejormur) July 1, 2020

[dirk digler]

Official U.S. coronavirus death toll is ‘a substantial undercount’ of actual tally, Yale study finds

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/01/offi...r&par=sharebar

The number of confirmed U.S. deaths due to the coronavirus is substantially lower than the true tally, according to a study published Wednesday in JAMA Internal Medicine.

Using National Center for Health Statistics data, researchers at Yale University compared the number of excess U.S. deaths from any causes with the reported number of weekly U.S. Covid-19 deaths from March 1 through May 30. The numbers were then compared with deaths from the same period in previous years.

Researchers found that the excess number of deaths over normal levels also exceeded those attributed to Covid-19, leading them to conclude that many of those fatalities were likely caused by the coronavirus but not confirmed. State reporting discrepancies and a sharp increase in U.S. deaths amid a pandemic suggest the number of Covid-19 fatalities is undercounted, they said.

“Our analyses suggest that the official tally of deaths due to Covid-19 represent a substantial undercount of the true burden,” Dan Weinberger, an epidemiologist at Yale School of Public Health and a lead author of the study, told CNBC. Weinberger said other factors could contribute to the increase in deaths, such as people avoiding emergency treatment for things like heart attacks. However, he doesn’t think that is the main driver.

The study was supported by the National Institute of Health.

The 781,000 total deaths in the United States in the three months through May 30 were about 122,300, or nearly 19% higher, than what would normally be expected, according to the researchers. Of the 122,300 excess deaths, 95,235 were attributed to Covid-19, they said. Most of the rest of the excess deaths, researchers said, were likely related to or directly caused by the coronavirus.

The number of excess deaths from any causes were 28% higher than the official tally of U.S. Covid-19 deaths during those months. The researchers noted the increase in excess deaths in many states trailed an increase in outpatient visits from people reporting an “influenza-like illness.”

[eDave]

Cases: All time highs on the 3-day total and 7-day avg charts yet again. Crossing the 100,000 case threshold seems likely by mid next week. 7-day death avg. continues to tick up.

Testing: PCR Testing dropped by about 6K tests from yesterday (17K down to 11K).

Spread: Overall PCR positive test percentage moved up from 12.4% to 12.5% (based on 560K tests, up from a 6.6% low) and the average for this week moved down from 24% to 23% (based on 7K cases, up from 20% last week).

Hospital Utilization: COVID Hospitalizations went up 2% (another all time high). ICU beds for COVID patients shot up 7% (Overall ICU bed usage held at 89%). Ventilators in use for COVID went up nearly 5%.

Data Source: ADHS

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by petegz28

That all sucks, lew. Delete that post and come back with something a little more positive!!!

Seriously though, that does suck. We are seeing this across the country. Our elected imbeciles who decided to keep hamstringing hospitals even after it was evident there wouldn't be a run on them are now a key reason why some hospitals are having a hard time. They actually broke there very thing they were trying to protect.

Yeah, clearly there's no run on hospitals...

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

Official U.S. coronavirus death toll is ‘a substantial undercount’ of actual tally, Yale study finds

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/01/offi...r&par=sharebar

The number of confirmed U.S. deaths due to the coronavirus is substantially lower than the true tally, according to a study published Wednesday in JAMA Internal Medicine.

Using National Center for Health Statistics data, researchers at Yale University compared the number of excess U.S. deaths from any causes with the reported number of weekly U.S. Covid-19 deaths from March 1 through May 30. The numbers were then compared with deaths from the same period in previous years.

Researchers found that the excess number of deaths over normal levels also exceeded those attributed to Covid-19, leading them to conclude that many of those fatalities were likely caused by the coronavirus but not confirmed. State reporting discrepancies and a sharp increase in U.S. deaths amid a pandemic suggest the number of Covid-19 fatalities is undercounted, they said.

“Our analyses suggest that the official tally of deaths due to Covid-19 represent a substantial undercount of the true burden,” Dan Weinberger, an epidemiologist at Yale School of Public Health and a lead author of the study, told CNBC. Weinberger said other factors could contribute to the increase in deaths, such as people avoiding emergency treatment for things like heart attacks. However, he doesn’t think that is the main driver.

The study was supported by the National Institute of Health.

The 781,000 total deaths in the United States in the three months through May 30 were about 122,300, or nearly 19% higher, than what would normally be expected, according to the researchers. Of the 122,300 excess deaths, 95,235 were attributed to Covid-19, they said. Most of the rest of the excess deaths, researchers said, were likely related to or directly caused by the coronavirus.

The number of excess deaths from any causes were 28% higher than the official tally of U.S. Covid-19 deaths during those months. The researchers noted the increase in excess deaths in many states trailed an increase in outpatient visits from people reporting an “influenza-like illness.”

That one guy whose death was falsely attributed to COVID outweighs this.

[Donger]

The current spike in new coronavirus numbers is due to an increase in cases, not because of more testing, Admiral Dr. Brett Giroir, assistant secretary for health for the US Department of Health and Human Services said on Thursday.

"“There is no question that the more testing you get, the more you will uncover – but we do believe this is a real increase in cases, because the percent positivity’s are going up. So, this is real increases in cases,” Giroir told the House Select Committee on Coronavirus. "

Giroir the US we did flatten the curve earlier during the pandemic, but “we are not flattening the curve right now, the curve is still going up.”

Across the US, some states are doing better than others, Giroir said, “four states are counting for about 50% of our new cases, and they're very concerning to all in public health.”

Those states are California, Arizona, Texas and Florida – which all posted record new cases this week, according to Johns Hopkins data.

Giroir, who has recently been critical of younger generations said, “we really do believe the current outbreak is primarily due to under 35s, with a lot of gatherings and not appropriate protection – like masks.”

[Donger]

The Florida Department of Health is reporting 10,109 additional coronavirus cases, bringing the state total to 169,106, according to data released by the state.

Today's numbers mark a new record daily high of infections in the state of Florida since the start of the pandemic. The previous record was set on Saturday, when the start reported just more than 9,500 new cases.