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[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Nick Wright pointed this out, and he's not wrong -- SOMEONE is going to get left out.

There are maybe 10 years worth of Championships for the present crop of similarly situated QBs.

Allen, Burrow, Jackson, Herbert -- all out of the AFC and all with probably 10 years left in their window.

Let's say Mahomes makes only 3 more SBs over the next decade. That leaves 7 AFC championships for ALL of those guys combined. And presumes that nobody like Stroud or Drake Maye or Trevor Lawrence makes a leap.

At some point the math just won't work anymore. There aren't enough AFC championships to go around, to say NOTHING of the fact that they would STILL have to go to the SB and win that. And with some QB talent starting to show up in the NFC, even that's a less and less likely scenario for those guys going forward.

And that's based on a couple presumptions (that they have 10 years at/near prime AND Mahomes only goes to 3 of the next 10 SBs) that are pretty conservative based on recent trends and playstyles.

There IS a genuine zero sum problem for them. And yeah, it's becoming a scarcity problem as well.

They're running out of opportunities.

Which we should understand at a profound level. How many times through the years did we think this was "our one shot". It's less so with a good QB, but even if we only won 1, I guarantee there would be threads here about wasting Mahomes.

It's a thing. The thing about it is finding the right place to put your angst. We did it for years (King Carl and his band of re-treads).

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Nick Wright pointed this out, and he's not wrong -- SOMEONE is going to get left out.

There are maybe 10 years worth of Championships for the present crop of similarly situated QBs.

Allen, Burrow, Jackson, Herbert -- all out of the AFC and all with probably 10 years left in their window.

Let's say Mahomes makes only 3 more SBs over the next decade. That leaves 7 AFC championships for ALL of those guys combined. And presumes that nobody like Stroud or Drake Maye or Trevor Lawrence makes a leap.

At some point the math just won't work anymore. There aren't enough AFC championships to go around, to say NOTHING of the fact that they would STILL have to go to the SB and win that. And with some QB talent starting to show up in the NFC, even that's a less and less likely scenario for those guys going forward.

And that's based on a couple presumptions (that they have 10 years at/near prime AND Mahomes only goes to 3 of the next 10 SBs) that are pretty conservative based on recent trends and playstyles.

There IS a genuine zero sum problem for them. And yeah, it's becoming a scarcity problem as well.

They're running out of opportunities.

Nick's analogy yesterday that Allen, Lamar, and Burrow are essentially just supporting characters of the Mahomes era is so true and yet cuts so deep I imagine.

Each year the pressure increases a few more ticks. You don't wanna be in Elway's situation where you've gotta get it done at the very end or it isn't happening.

[jerryaldini]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Nick Wright pointed this out, and he's not wrong -- SOMEONE is going to get left out.

There are maybe 10 years worth of Championships for the present crop of similarly situated QBs.

Allen, Burrow, Jackson, Herbert -- all out of the AFC and all with probably 10 years left in their window.

Let's say Mahomes makes only 3 more SBs over the next decade. That leaves 7 AFC championships for ALL of those guys combined. And presumes that nobody like Stroud or Drake Maye or Trevor Lawrence makes a leap.

At some point the math just won't work anymore. There aren't enough AFC championships to go around, to say NOTHING of the fact that they would STILL have to go to the SB and win that. And with some QB talent starting to show up in the NFC, even that's a less and less likely scenario for those guys going forward.

And that's based on a couple presumptions (that they have 10 years at/near prime AND Mahomes only goes to 3 of the next 10 SBs) that are pretty conservative based on recent trends and playstyles.

There IS a genuine zero sum problem for them. And yeah, it's becoming a scarcity problem as well.

They're running out of opportunities.

And in the case of Allen and Jackson, 10 years is pushing it because at 28, in 5 years their running ability will likely drop off quickly. All those guys are gonna need strong team and coaching support at that point. The guys who've won mid 30s and later were no longer able to carry a team the way they can presently. And new young talent comes in every year.

That's why the sense of urgency. On both the Bengals and Bills boards it's always "the coaches and organization wasted another year of his prime". In reality Mahomes is wasting their prime .

[Sassy Squatch]

Originally Posted by jerryaldini

And in the case of Allen and Jackson, 10 years is pushing it because at 28, in 5 years their running ability will likely drop off quickly. All those guys are gonna need strong team and coaching support at that point. The guys who've won mid 30s and later were no longer able to carry a team the way they can presently. And new young talent comes in every year.

That's why the sense of urgency. On both the Bengals and Bills boards it's always "the coaches and organization wasted another year of his prime". In reality Mahomes is wasting their prime .

Josh Allen is going to make it. Really don't think Jackson will in large part because that Ravens team can't help but shit itself at critical moments.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Sassy Squatch

Josh Allen is going to make it. Really don't think Jackson will in large part because that Ravens team can't help but shit itself at critical moments.

Allen is likely to be the Big Ben to Mahomes Brady.

He'll get one. May well get 2. He's just too damn good and that organization, while not as good as ours, is one of the 5 best in the game.

They'll get one at some point.

(But gat DAYUM it would be funny if they didn't...)

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by jerryaldini

And in the case of Allen and Jackson, 10 years is pushing it because at 28, in 5 years their running ability will likely drop off quickly. All those guys are gonna need strong team and coaching support at that point. The guys who've won mid 30s and later were no longer able to carry a team the way they can presently. And new young talent comes in every year.

That's why the sense of urgency. On both the Bengals and Bills boards it's always "the coaches and organization wasted another year of his prime". In reality Mahomes is wasting their prime .

When Jackson can't run anymore he's just done.

He has one throwing mechanic that works. He has one TYPE of throw he excels at (those sort of lofted passes into empty zones). He doesn't do a lot pre-snap and doesn't diagnose terribly well.

When teams don't have to spy anymore because of his legs or when they can actually put a true pass rush out there against him, he's shot.

Now the wrinkle with Jackson may just be that the guys legs could well hold up to 35 years old. He's THAT damn explosive. He could have that sort of Steve Smith arc where his legs just refuse to go away on him. In which case he may have 6-8 premier years still.

But I think he's already started to slow up a bit. He's been caught from behind more times in the last 2 years than he did the 5 years before that. He doesn't seem quite as big a risk to truly break one anymore.

He can't lose MUCH more than he already has and remain a premier QB.

As for Allen - he's REALLY smart pre-snap. I mean yeah, he gacked that 4th down, but as a rule he's very good at diagnosing and attacking blitz schemes and that's why he's given Spags more trouble than anyone else.

And Burrow's style seems to be the one that should age the best but the injury issues seem to always be lingering in the background. He's had significant leg AND arm injuries. That's a concern.

Like I said, giving them all 10 more years is probably optimistic. And even at that...well like I said, the math is starting to look kinda rough for them.

[RedinTexas]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Nick Wright pointed this out, and he's not wrong -- SOMEONE is going to get left out.

There are maybe 10 years worth of Championships for the present crop of similarly situated QBs.

Allen, Burrow, Jackson, Herbert -- all out of the AFC and all with probably 10 years left in their window.

Let's say Mahomes makes only 3 more SBs over the next decade. That leaves 7 AFC championships for ALL of those guys combined. And presumes that nobody like Stroud or Drake Maye or Trevor Lawrence makes a leap.

At some point the math just won't work anymore. There aren't enough AFC championships to go around, to say NOTHING of the fact that they would STILL have to go to the SB and win that. And with some QB talent starting to show up in the NFC, even that's a less and less likely scenario for those guys going forward.

And that's based on a couple presumptions (that they have 10 years at/near prime AND Mahomes only goes to 3 of the next 10 SBs) that are pretty conservative based on recent trends and playstyles.

There IS a genuine zero sum problem for them. And yeah, it's becoming a scarcity problem as well.

They're running out of opportunities.

It also fails to account for the fact that new QBs will be coming into the league every year and they will be in contention too.

[wazu]

Decided to take a screen cap of the broadcast's skycam view of 4th down, this is as far as Josh got. By the way, there were 13 minutes left. Both teams scored again after this play, and Josh got the ball at the end of the game, down 3 with plenty of time to drive down the field and slay the Chiefs.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by wazu

Decided to take a screen cap of YouTubeTV's skycam view of 4th down, this is as far as Josh got. By the way, there were 13 minutes left. Both teams scored again after this play, and Josh got the ball at the end of the game, down 3 with plenty of time to drive down the field and slay the Chiefs.

Yeah I didn't mention it yesterday but it took me a bit to find the play in the All 22. It's not broadcast footage so there's no clock or down and distance. I was looking way too late in the game because the controversy had convinced me it was critical.

It happened at the beginning of the 4th quarter.

[Chiefspants]

Originally Posted by wazu

Decided to take a screen cap of the broadcast's skycam view of 4th down, this is as far as Josh got. By the way, there were 13 minutes left. Both teams scored again after this play, and Josh got the ball at the end of the game, down 3 with plenty of time to drive down the field and slay the Chiefs.

Where can you access that footage? I don’t think I’ve seen that vantage point and would love to watch the whole play.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by Chiefspants

Where can you access that footage? I don’t think I’ve seen that vantage point and would love to watch the whole play.

I think that was the TV broadcast.

[Chiefspants]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

I think that was the TV broadcast.

That makes sense. My son wanted dada to get him down for bed so I ended up listening to almost the entire fourth quarter.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by Chiefspants

That makes sense. My son wanted dada to get him down for bed so I ended up listening to almost the entire fourth quarter.

Of course he did. Then on a random Wednesday when you want some kid snuggles it will be mom only.

[wazu]

Originally Posted by Chiefspants

Where can you access that footage? I don’t think I’ve seen that vantage point and would love to watch the whole play.

I pulled it up on YouTubeTV. Have the game saved. They played it I think once while it was being reviewed.

[Raiderhater]

Originally Posted by wazu

Decided to take a screen cap of the broadcast's skycam view of 4th down, this is as far as Josh got. By the way, there were 13 minutes left. Both teams scored again after this play, and Josh got the ball at the end of the game, down 3 with plenty of time to drive down the field and slay the Chiefs.

THANK YOU! I was about to go out of my mind. This morning I even looked to see if someone had posted the whole game yet on YT, and NFL had BUT, to help cut down on the time they cut all of the review time - and therefore the replays shown - out. I just threw my hands up and was starting to wonder if I had just imagined the whole thing.

It certainly is not as definitive as I remember thinking it was at the time, but it is still a better shot than either of the field side views and throws more than enough doubt on his reaching the LoG. This whole controversy is stupid. “But the one side judge spotted the ball on the line!” **** off.