***Official 2021 Royals Season Repository Thread***

[ChiefsCountry]

For all things Royals for the new year.

Free Agent Signings:
Carlos Santana
Mike Minor
Michael Taylor
Ervin Santana

Top 10 Prospects:
1 Bobby Witt Jr., SS
2 Asa Lacy, LHP
3 Daniel Lynch, LHP
4 Jackson Kowar, RHP
5 Erick Pena, OF
6 Nick Loftin, SS
7 Kyle Isbel, OF
8 Khali Lee, OF
9 Jonathan Bowlan, RHP
10 Carlos Hernedez, RHP

[duncan_idaho]

Royals Top Prospects | Midseason 2021

You guys know the draft soured my excitement for writing this up. It would have been bad enough just passing on Kumar Rocker, but passing up both Brady House AND Khalil Watson, too, really left me down on the Royals chances.

Here are my collected thoughts on the draft now that it’s over.

Spoiler!

Key to success | At least one of Frank Mozzicato or Ben Kudrna must become a legit top 25 prospect at some point, and translate to being a quality starting pitcher for the major league squad (either as a player themselves or as trade ammo).

The Royals passed on elite talent (most physically talented college pitcher, a guy who could quickly reclaim his status as a future ace; best power bat in the HS ranks; most versatile all-around athlete in the HS ranks) to take Mozzicato and save bonus money to be able to take Kudrna. When you bet big on HS pitching like this AND pass on players more likely to hit their upside, you can’t lose.

Biggest lottery ticket Eric Cerantola, RHP, Miss. State. The Royals round 6 pick has an electric arm and major control questions. If he can throw strikes, this is a guy who could pay off in a big way (he had first-round buzz/potential entering the college season but struggled so much to throw strikes Mississippi State left him OFF the college World Series roster (this after being their Saturday starter at the start of the year). It’s a win if he becomes at least Josh Staumont.

Sneakiest sleeper I REALLY like Dayton Dooney, the JUCO bat KC took in Round 7. He was a freshman All-American at Arizona before leaving and landing at Central Arizona JUCO (where his bat helped them go on a playoff run). Dooney is a switch hitter who controls the strike zone and hits for average and power. He’s probably a LF as a pro (likely can’t stick at 2B and doesn’t have the arm for 3B).

Top Royals Prospects | Midseason 2021
1. Bobby Witt, Jr. SS, AA Witt has done everything you could hope for at AA. The production is there, the intangibles are there, the love is there. This is a top 10-15 prospect in baseball, period, and you could make a fairly strong case he’s a top 5 guy. It’s a matter of if, not when, and from there a matter of how long KC can keep him.
2. Daniel Lynch, LHP, AAA Lynch’s debut was a disaster and a great example of how much even the best young pitching can struggle at first blush. He’s still a 6-6 lefty who throws hard, has a great breaking and usable changeup and secondary breaking ball, and generally throws enough strikes. Upside is still there. He has to regain his confidence and fix the tipping issue to slide back to his #2 starter upside.
3. Asa Lacy, LHP, A+ Lacy’s control has been in and out this season. Assuming he gets that back under control, the way he misses bats and limits hard contact gives him a lofty ceiling. If he can string together several good starts in a row and earn a promotion to AA this year, it puts him back on track and probably jumps him to #2 on this list for me.
4. Jackson Kowar, RHP, AAA Kowar’s curveball has reportedly taken a step forward in consistence and effectiveness this season, which increases the chances he becomes a good major league starter. The tools are still there. I suspect he’ll end up being a really effective late inning guy, though, and that’s OK.
5. M.J. Melendez, C, AA This might surprise some folks, but Melendez is having a similar offensive season as Nick Pratto, but offers a lot more defensive value and also is striking out at a lower rate (more on that down the list). A plus-defending catcher who hits for good power and draws lots of walks is a nice package, especially when thinking about a long-term pairing with Salvador Perez.
6. Erick Pena, OF, ROOKIE Pena is off to a solid start in a small sample of rookie ball. This ranking remains based on his upside and reports out of camp.
7. Nick Pratto, 1B, AA Pratto has been a rags to riches prospect this story, hitting for power and continuing to draw lots of walks while also hitting for a nice average and playing elite D at 1B. The K rate is still higher than you’d like to see and what happens with it as he ascends to AAA and then the majors will be critical for his ultimate outcome.
8-14

Spoiler!

8. Jonathan Bowlan, RHP, AA*He’s on the shelf with Tommy John for a while yet.
9. Kyle Isbel, OF, AAA Isbel hasn’t handled the trip back to AAA well, but he remains a guy who looks a potentially above-average corner OF player.
10. Alec Marsh, RHP, AA Marsh has seen his stuff take a bump since KC drafted him. I believe in the stuff.
11. Jon Heaseley, RHP, AABowlan’s injury opened up a spot for Heasley in the rotation, and he has performed well. He likely tops out as a back-end guy as a pro, but he has been effective and productive at each MILB stop.
12. Frank Mozzicato, LHP, DRAFTEE I’ve made no secret of not loving the pick. He’s a HS lefty with projection and a really good curve. If he adds a few MPH to his fastball while also continuing to develop a currently promising changeup, Mozzicato could become a Max Fried-type rotation anchor. IF.
13. Nick Loftin, SS, A+ Loftin looks like a UTIL guy to me. He makes good contact but needs to tap into some power to be an average or better regular. If you could blend him with the next guy on the list you would end up with a very good MLB regular…
14. Jeison Guzman, SS/OF, A+ Hey, remember me? I’m one of the signees that put the Royals in the international signing penalty box six years ago! Guzman hasn’t lived up to expectations when the Royals gave him 7 figures to sign, but he is a strong defender in CF and at SS and has some mistake power.

15-20

Spoiler!

15. Ben Kudrna, RHP, DRAFTEE Local product with the frame and projectability to turn into a real star. Also is a high school draftee with projectability, which means the more likely outcome is he doesn’t develop a whole lot and maybe ends up as an OK bullpen guy.
16. Austin Cox, LHP, AA Cox is up and down but does have a nice curve. I think he’s a future long relief guy unless he adds velo or a second swing-and-miss pitch.
17. Ben Hernandez, RHP, A Hernandez is the last HS arm KC took high before this season. He still has a great changeup and still is searching for a breaking ball he can rely on.
18. Carter Jensen, C, DRAFTEE Local HS product is a bat-oriented C with power potential.
19. Angel Zerpa, LHP, AA Zerpa had a blow-up start recently but is an intriguing lefty. His stuff isn’t amazing, but he has a nice overall package and could climb higher with a strong finish to 2021.
20. Darryl Collins, OF, A Collins, a European signing, has been fun to watch in his stateside appearances. He draws a nice amount of walks and has a smooth swing with a body that suggests more muscle and power are just a matter of time.

And I’m stopping there, gang. Overall, I think it’s around a top 10-ish system. The strength is definitely the starting pitching upside and depth, though Witt-Pratto-Melendez-Isbel-Pena is not a bad quintet of position players.

For those who might wonder what it would look like had KC drafted guys they could have and didn't at #7...

Kumar Rocker would have been my #2 prospect in the list. Watson would have been #4. Brady House #8.

[dlphg9]

Still makes me sick that we passed on so many highly talented players for a high school pitcher that they will ruin.

Also when the hell are we gonna see some guys get advanced? Witt, Pratto, Melendez need to be in AAA.

[Prison Bitch]

Biggest gaps between actual performance and ZIPS preseason proj


Hitting (exceeds)
No Royals


Hitting (falls below)
1. Soler Power. 66 wRC+ vs 124. (-58)
4. The Big Dozier 58 wRC+ vs 110. (-52)


Pitching (exceeds)
4. Duff-man. 57 era+ vs 109 (+52)


Pitching (falls below)
14. Brad Keller. 135 era+ vs 99 (-36)


https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-zips...e-the-players/

[Titty Meat]

Duncan were you on 610 last night? I heard the exact same Melendez/Pratto comparison nearly word for word

[ChiefsCountry]

Originally Posted by dlphg9

Also when the hell are we gonna see some guys get advanced? Witt, Pratto, Melendez need to be in AAA.

No they don't. Leave them in AA for the rest of the season. This is the first time they have had success.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by Titty Meat

Duncan were you on 610 last night? I heard the exact same Melendez/Pratto comparison nearly word for word

My dulcile tones haven't graced sports radio airwaves since like 2007. So, not me.

Was it Lesky? He and I seem to have similar opinions on guys a lot of times.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by dlphg9

Still makes me sick that we passed on so many highly talented players for a high school pitcher that they will ruin.

Also when the hell are we gonna see some guys get advanced? Witt, Pratto, Melendez need to be in AAA.

Yeah, I'm probably not going to accept the approach the Royals took until I see it succeeding.

While I DO agree with the idea that guys either have a feel for spin or do not (something the Royals' pitching development folks certainly didn't believe back in the days when Bill Fischer was running that side of the house and they stubbornly tried to turn every HS pitcher into a fastball/curveball/changeup guy), and I'm glad to see them adopting drafting strategies that focus on guys that already show a feel for breaking off a curve or slider, I don't agree with spending so much of their best capital on HS arms.

I also don't buy the idea that you have to draft HS players to draft an ace.

Of the top 20 healthy pitchers in baseball entering 2021...

10 were college pitchers
4 are international signees
6 were high school pitchers

As for promoting those guys, I don't see a reason to rush them. I think if Witt hits in July like he did in July, he'll force a promotion to AAA. I can see being more conservative with both Melendez and Pratto considering their age and how badly they struggled in their last full season of MILB.

All subject to change, of course. But I'm in no hurry to get thsoe guys to the bigs. Ideally, the entire coaching staff would be turned over before any of those guys make their debuts.

[Prison Bitch]

Originally Posted by dlphg9

Still makes me sick that we passed on so many highly talented players for a high school pitcher that they will ruin.

Also when the hell are we gonna see some guys get advanced? Witt, Pratto, Melendez need to be in AAA.

Witt just turned 21. Adley Rutchman is 23.5 and still in AA also. Torkelson is 22 and in AA. Kebryan Hayes (#6 prospect ahead of Witt) spent all age 21 at AA and age 22 at AAA. He got his cup of coffee last year at 23.

[OKchiefs]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

Witt just turned 21. Adley Rutchman is 23.5 and still in AA also. Torkelson is 22 and in AA. Kebryan Hayes (#6 prospect ahead of Witt) spent all age 21 at AA and age 22 at AAA. He got his cup of coffee last year at 23.

Shouldn’t have anything to do with age. I don’t know if BWJ, Melendez, and Pratto necessarily all have to be promoted, but I do think each has shown quite a bit to deserve consideration. I’ll be surprised if we don’t see Witt promoted by the end of the month.

[CasselGotPeedOn]

Witt Jr and Pratto both hit their 15th HR last night. Melendez got his 17th the night before. All three are OPS'ing at least .930.

[dlphg9]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Yeah, I'm probably not going to accept the approach the Royals took until I see it succeeding.

While I DO agree with the idea that guys either have a feel for spin or do not (something the Royals' pitching development folks certainly didn't believe back in the days when Bill Fischer was running that side of the house and they stubbornly tried to turn every HS pitcher into a fastball/curveball/changeup guy), and I'm glad to see them adopting drafting strategies that focus on guys that already show a feel for breaking off a curve or slider, I don't agree with spending so much of their best capital on HS arms.

I also don't buy the idea that you have to draft HS players to draft an ace.

Of the top 20 healthy pitchers in baseball entering 2021...

10 were college pitchers
4 are international signees
6 were high school pitchers

As for promoting those guys, I don't see a reason to rush them. I think if Witt hits in July like he did in July, he'll force a promotion to AAA. I can see being more conservative with both Melendez and Pratto considering their age and how badly they struggled in their last full season of MILB.

All subject to change, of course. But I'm in no hurry to get thsoe guys to the bigs. Ideally, the entire coaching staff would be turned over before any of those guys make their debuts.

This is a very good reason to be conservative with promoting them. I don't want Matheny anywhere near any more top prospects. Dudes a ****ing idiot.

[duncan_idaho]

Topical:

Bobby Witt is playing 3B tonight for Northwest Arkansas. There is currently a clear open spot for Witt at 3B in Omaha currently.

[dlphg9]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Topical:

Bobby Witt is playing 3B tonight for Northwest Arkansas. There is currently a clear open spot for Witt at 3B in Omaha currently.

You think the team is gonna keep him at SS in the majors?

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by dlphg9

You think the team is gonna keep him at SS in the majors?

Oh, I think they view him as their long-term SS. But the more reps he gets at other spots, the easier it is to move him up a level.

[dlphg9]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Oh, I think they view him as their long-term SS. But the more reps he gets at other spots, the easier it is to move him up a level.

That's what I figured. Would hate to waste his ability at 3rd base.