***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[O.city]

That would make sense. We'll just have to wait and see.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

From a real epidemiologist.

Lead time bias tells us that we can expect to see a longer delay between detection & death because we are detecting people earlier in the disease process. This does not mean people are surviving longer! That’s the sneaky lead time bias talking!! pic.twitter.com/7S6NTFDTUf

— EpiEllie & Dr Theresa Chapple #ShareTheMicNowPH (@EpiEllie) July 7, 2020

Lead time bias is factor here, but selection bias is MUCH larger. 3 months ago I was denied a test b/c I didn't have a fever (even w/ 4 other symptoms). Now my state is testing hyper-local clusters of asymptomatic. Naturally going to get a LOT more positives (that aren't serious)

— Ben Hoagland (@hoagland_ben) July 7, 2020

[TLO]

Originally Posted by O.city

That would make sense. We'll just have to wait and see.

I think it's only logical that we're going to start seeing an uptick in deaths. It's just a matter of how much they actually increase. I don't want to see 2500-3000 a day again. I think we've come a long way with treatment and ability to treat the seriously ill. Hopefully we never reach those types of numbers again.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by TLO

I think it's only logical that we're going to start seeing an uptick in deaths. It's just a matter of how much they actually increase. I don't want to see 2500-3000 a day again. I think we've come a long way with treatment and ability to treat the seriously ill. Hopefully we never reach those types of numbers again.

We will surely see an uptick. But there is a difference between a rise and a spike. the lead time bias tweet implies death is imminent and we will just watch them die longer and the numbers will be the same as they were with NY.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by O.city

That would make sense. We'll just have to wait and see.

It does make sense but it kinda implies that the deaths will be the same as before and there are a lot of other doctors and experts out there saying that simply is not the case.

[Fish]

School openings will be an interesting experiment...

Missouri Summer Camp Closes After 82 Kids and Staff Infected with Coronavirus

Kanakuk Kamps, a network of Christian sports camps in the state, reopened their camps to thousands of kids beginning in May. Kanakuk chose to reopen after Missouri leaders said that there was a risk in letting camps reopen, but that they were confident that the camps had made plans to stop any potential COVID-19 outbreaks from happening.

Per a report from NBC News, parents received an email last week from Rebecca Duncan, Kanakuk's health services director, advising them that their children may have been exposed.

"As your Kamper returns home, we recommend that you consider a 14-day self-quarantine for your child and monitor for symptoms of COVID-19," the email read according to the report.

[lewdog]

I’ve got a source saying AZ will announce a lockdown today.

3 pm with governor Ducey.

[Eureka]

Originally Posted by Fish

School openings will be an interesting experiment...

Missouri Summer Camp Closes After 82 Kids and Staff Infected with Coronavirus

Kanakuk Kamps, a network of Christian sports camps in the state, reopened their camps to thousands of kids beginning in May. Kanakuk chose to reopen after Missouri leaders said that there was a risk in letting camps reopen, but that they were confident that the camps had made plans to stop any potential COVID-19 outbreaks from happening.

Per a report from NBC News, parents received an email last week from Rebecca Duncan, Kanakuk's health services director, advising them that their children may have been exposed.

"As your Kamper returns home, we recommend that you consider a 14-day self-quarantine for your child and monitor for symptoms of COVID-19," the email read according to the report.

What that means is drop the kidos off at grandpa's daycare while you go to work. Damn daycare camp won't watch the kids.

[eDave]

Originally Posted by lewdog

I’ve got a source saying AZ will announce a lockdown today.

3 pm with governor Ducey.

****. Off to the store.

https://www.abc15.com/news/coronavir...-rise-in-cases

https://old.reddit.com/r/IAmA/commen...izona/fxfp5d3/

[loochy]

Originally Posted by lewdog

I’ve got a source saying AZ will announce a lockdown today.

3 pm with governor Ducey.

Define "lockdown".

Do you mean another "we recommend you shouldn't go out, but there really aren't any consequences if you do" kind of thing?

[Eureka]

Originally Posted by tyecopeland

I dont know how it works, didnt have to worry about it as I started back to work this week with summer school starting.

Didnt know if it was as easy as just listing businesses or if there was more to it.

Unfortunately, it is just that easy. You fill the paperwork out that they mail to you or do it online. $1050 (you can choose if you want taxes taken out) per week right now if you qualify for the highest eligible unemployment benefits. That's over $26 an hour for a 40 hour work week. This is what is given in CA. The government wants people to stay home and collect an easy check.

[Bugeater]

Originally Posted by eDave

****. Off to the store.

https://www.abc15.com/news/coronavir...-rise-in-cases

https://old.reddit.com/r/IAmA/commen...izona/fxfp5d3/

BUY ALL THE TOILET PAPERZZZZ

[Bugeater]

Originally Posted by loochy

Define "lockdown".

Do you mean another "we recommend you shouldn't go out, but there really aren't any consequences if you do" kind of thing?

It's ****ing July, so there are consequences...such as heat stroke.

[eDave]

Originally Posted by loochy

Define "lockdown".

Do you mean another "we recommend you shouldn't go out, but there really aren't any consequences if you do" kind of thing?

Perhaps we should wait for the conference, hmmm? However severe, blame goes to the smug dicks.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by TLO

I think it's only logical that we're going to start seeing an uptick in deaths. It's just a matter of how much they actually increase. I don't want to see 2500-3000 a day again. I think we've come a long way with treatment and ability to treat the seriously ill. Hopefully we never reach those types of numbers again.

Yep I concur. The virus hasn't changed but as you said we have gotten much better at treating it. We also have lots of potential good vaccines that will soon be available