***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[O.city]

So with looking at that Sweden graph and then their cases looking similar, it begs the question, why do all these disease curves seem to look the same no matter what course the country takes?

[Donger]

Originally Posted by O.city

So with looking at that Sweden graph and then their cases looking similar, it begs the question, why do all these disease curves seem to look the same no matter what course the country takes?

I take it you are leaving out ours?

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by O.city

So with looking at that Sweden graph and then their cases looking similar, it begs the question, why do all these disease curves seem to look the same no matter what course the country takes?

Well except for us

[O.city]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

Well except for us

We're a little different in terms of the size and such.

If you break us down similarly to countries as states and such, it looks similar. Look at New York, New Jersey etc.

They look identical to those other countries.

The places here that are spiking now are just going thru the same things those other countries did just at different times.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by O.city

We're a little different in terms of the size and such.

If you break us down similarly to countries as states and such, it looks similar. Look at New York, New Jersey etc.

They look identical to those other countries.

The places here that are spiking now are just going thru the same things those other countries did just at different times.

New York locked down (eventually) and had/has a phased plan for re-opening, which they are actually following.

I don't see any other country that looks like us. We did a pretty good job of slowing new case growth, then plateaued around 25,000 a day, reopened and we are seeing increases in ~35 states.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Donger

New York locked down (eventually) and had/has a phased plan for re-opening, which they are actually following.

And Sweden didn't. Why does their graphs look the same?

They also had the same protesting and wild shit happening in New York that everywhere else has and haven't had similar spikes, so it's likely they're at a point of immunity.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by O.city

We're a little different in terms of the size and such.

If you break us down similarly to countries as states and such, it looks similar. Look at New York, New Jersey etc.

They look identical to those other countries.

The places here that are spiking now are just going thru the same things those other countries did just at different times.

My guess would be that formal rules can only go so far. A ton relies on people taking it seriously and social distancing on their own. Looking at Sweden's mobility reports on Google, they're nearly identical to the U.S. for example, though they have less of a drop in retail than we did.

All that said, Sweden is still even worse than the U.S. in per-capita deaths (7th worst in the world), so until they show they can keep it down, I'm hesitant to say that it's a victory. There are plenty of countries in the world (including their neighbors) that have had minimal deaths for a while now. Hell, Sweden has had as many deaths in the past month as Norway has had since the beginning, and that's only looking at the period where Sweden seemingly "has things under control."

[Donger]

Originally Posted by O.city

And Sweden didn't. Why does their graphs look the same?

They also had the same protesting and wild shit happening in New York that everywhere else has and haven't had similar spikes, so it's likely they're at a point of immunity.

It's not accurate that they didn't do any mitigation. They did.

I was also reading this earlier:

Swedish Covid Infections Drop After Steady Distancing Patterns

The rate of Covid-19 infections is declining in Sweden, which health authorities said is thanks to citizens voluntarily adhering to social distancing guidelines.

Johan Carlson, the director general of Sweden’s public health agency, said the latest official data show that overall contagion rates are “trending down” and the “number of patients in intensive care is also declining.”

Speaking at a briefing in Stockholm on Tuesday, Carlson said that the decline in infection rates “is an effect of us keeping up the social distancing.”

The development follows months of controversy over Sweden’s decision to avoid a proper lockdown, and instead rely on its citizens to follow distancing guidelines. But the country’s mortality rate remains well above levels in the rest of Scandinavia, with more than 10 times as many Covid-19 deaths as in neighboring Norway, per 100,000.

nders Tegnell, Sweden’s state epidemiologist, has maintained that his strategy will prove more sustainable in the long run than the sudden lockdowns and reopenings adopted elsewhere. That’s as some places, such as Beijing, that had appeared to bring the virus under control recently saw fresh outbreaks.

“Part of the reason for Sweden’s less stringent approach was the view that restrictions would need to be in place for some time, and there were doubts about whether society would be compliant with stricter measures over a long period,” said Johanna Jeansson of Bloomberg Economics.
Immunity

Sweden’s overall response to the virus has potentially left more people exposed to it, raising questions about herd immunity. But the data have so far been mixed. In a study published in June, the Public Health Agency found that antibodies were only found in 6.1% of the samples collected nationwide in the week ending May 24.

An earlier analysis of 50,000 tests by Werlabs AB, a private company, showed that about 14% of people tested over six weeks in the Stockholm region developed Covid-19 antibodies.

Carlson said that “immunity could definitely be playing a part in areas where we’ve had contagion, and that might impact the overall result.”

Ironically, basic social distancing requirements in Sweden are now stricter than in many other countries. That’s because places like Denmark and Norway have rolled back the severe lockdowns they imposed early on to fight Covid-19.

The stringency of Swedish requirements according to the Oxford Covid-19 Government Response Tracker shows the country now places greater restrictions on movement than Norway and Finland.

“Sweden’s approach has been widely misrepresented as doing nothing. It’s not,” said William Hanage, associate professor of epidemiology at Harvard’s School of Public Health in Boston. Though the death rate, especially among the elderly in nursing homes, has been very high, ultimately, “Sweden’s approach may be sustainable in ways other countries’ have not proven to be,” he said.

Jeansson of Bloomberg Economics says Swedes aren’t likely to return to normal life any time soon, amid concerns over the virus.

“Restrictions are likely to keep a lid on demand in Sweden through at least the third quarter,” she said. “After that, we still expect social distancing will hamper activity, probably until there’s a vaccine.”

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by O.city

We're a little different in terms of the size and such.

If you break us down similarly to countries as states and such, it looks similar. Look at New York, New Jersey etc.

They look identical to those other countries.

The places here that are spiking now are just going thru the same things those other countries did just at different times.

If you look at other countries, they had the initial infection then spike then gradual crawl down.

If you look at our individual states, most have had Covid since February-March and just now some of seriously spiking. Texas first confirmed case was Mar 5.

Florida's first 2 cases were March 1. NY's first case was also March 1.

Now 4 months later they are spiking so something caused that.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DaFace

My guess would be that formal rules can only go so far. A ton relies on people taking it seriously and social distancing on their own. Looking at Sweden's mobility reports on Google, they're nearly identical to the U.S. for example, though they have less of a drop in retail than we did.

All that said, Sweden is still even worse than the U.S. in per-capita deaths (7th worst in the world), so until they show they can keep it down, I'm hesitant to say that it's a victory. There are plenty of countries in the world (including their neighbors) that have had minimal deaths for a while now. Hell, Sweden has had as many deaths in the past month as Norway has had since the beginning, and that's only looking at the period where Sweden seemingly "has things under control."

For sure. But we know those countries can't keep locked down forever. So now that they're opening back up, whats likely to happen?

That was Swedens philosophy the whole time. They played the long game.

They weren't wide open business as usual for sure as Donger just posted, but they realized what alot of these other countries are starting to.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

If you look at other countries, they had the initial infection then spike then gradual crawl down.

If you look at our individual states, most have had Covid since February-March and just now some of seriously spiking. Texas first confirmed case was Mar 5.

Florida's first 2 cases were March 1. NY's first case was also March 1.

Now 4 months later they are spiking so something caused that.

It takes quite a few sparks to get a fire going normally in these things. Chains die out and don't take off etc.

Once we started mass testing in these places we started finding these huge spikes. I'm guessing some of them were there before we shined a flash light on it.

[tooge]

Originally Posted by lewdog

That’s a good question. I had a positive swab in May but no symptoms. I’m inconclusive on antibodies 6 weeks later. Maybe it was a false positive?

I’ve never had a sinus infection in my life. I’ve also never completely lost my taste and smell. It’s incredibly weird. I was drinking hot sauce and couldn’t even tell.

You should be able to tell when its time to take a shit

[O.city]

Look at Australia right now. Everyone thought they had it whooped. They're an island etc.

Now they're having an outbreak in Melbourne and are looking at locking back down.

It's starting to look obvious to me that you can't run from this thing. So either you lock it down, permanently until we have tools to stop it, or you do your best to funnel it

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by O.city

For sure. But we know those countries can't keep locked down forever. So now that they're opening back up, whats likely to happen?

That was Swedens philosophy the whole time. They played the long game.

They weren't wide open business as usual for sure as Donger just posted, but they realized what alot of these other countries are starting to.

I think you're romanticizing Sweden a bit here. Norway is more open than Sweden at this point.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by O.city

Look at Australia right now. Everyone thought they had it whooped. They're an island etc.

Now they're having an outbreak in Melbourne and are looking at locking back down.

It's starting to look obvious to me that you can't run from this thing. So either you lock it down, permanently until we have tools to stop it, or you do your best to funnel it

The Rydges on Swanston hotel in Melbourne, Australia, photographed on Tuesday. The hotel is one of the sources of Melbourne's coronavirus outbreaks after it was used to accommodate returning overseas travelers for a 14-day quarantine period.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronav...covid-19-cases

Qantas cancels all international flights until March 2021

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12348043