The logic of drafting OT in the 1st.

[Direckshun]

What we know about this team is that it typically likes to fill its roster out as much as possible in free agency and then spend its highest picks on potential replacements for job openings a year down the road, and that includes Veach.

I doubt I even need to run down the list but:

2020: CEH --> Williams
2019: Hardman --> Hill/Watkins
2018: Speaks --> Ford/Houston
2017: Mahomes --> Smith

Fisher will be on the last year of his contract, and most of us suspect Schwartz retiring.

The Chiefs obviously like Niang but going OT 1st gives them the options:

• Niang vs. the rookie for starting RT
• if the rookie wins, Niang can slide into guard or hold the swing tackle position
• if Niang wins, the rookie can slide into guard or hold the swing tackle position
• the Chiefs love Fisher but if both Niang and the rookie excel, maybe they cut bait
• if only one of them excel, the Chiefs can extend Fisher

It just seems like the kind of move that gives them the flexibility in future decisions that they like to have.

I'd rather they go DE, even if it means trading up for one. But based on what we know, OT could ostensibly solve up to two different OL spots in 2021 and gives them all kinds of options in 2022 based on how 2021 goes.

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Agree, at least right now. His stock may adjust.

I kind of think KC's best value bet is to take Walker Little in the second. In terms of upside, fit, and draft slot/cost-benefit, that looks like the biggest W to me.

^ This is thinking, of course, that both Schwartz and Fisher are done/retiring.

I don't think it's wise to assume you see either in 2021.

[Pitt Gorilla]

Agreed with all here. If someone like Pitts were to fall to the mid-teens, I'd have zero issue with Beach moving up to take him, if that's who he wanted. If someone like Toney falls to our pick, that'd be great as well. Honestly, I'm excited either way.

[Pitt Gorilla]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Agree, at least right now. His stock may adjust.

I kind of think KC's best value bet is to take Walker Little in the second. In terms of upside, fit, and draft slot/cost-benefit, that looks like the biggest W to me.

^ This is thinking, of course, that both Schwartz and Fisher are done/retiring.

I love how the Chiefs operate. I think they wanted Niang and felt they could get him in the third. It'll be interesting to see who they like in rounds 1-3.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by staylor26

Man, I have a hard time believing that Radunz is a top 32 player.

I think he’s definitely top 50, and I’d be all for trading back or up in the 2nd for him, but there’s no way I’m taking him over Bateman, Phillips, Toney, Marshall, Ojulari, or Oweh.

Cosmi or Mayfield are our most realistic shot at taking a T in the 1st.

Originally Posted by htismaqe

I have run probably 25 mocks and Cosmi either goes 13 to the Chargers or 14 to the Patriots every time. I don't see him being there.

Of all the guys that kccrow listed, the only one that consistently falls to 32 is Radunz.

I pretty much never see Toney or Marshall on the board at 32 unless its some fluke. Most of the time both are gone no later than 25. Reality tells me there is a slim chance either are there.

Phillips is a guy I would absolutely not consider at 32 with his concussion history, sorry. Just too many at UCLA for my liking. If he falls rather far, sure, but not in the 1st and probably not in the 2nd.

Ojulari isn't a scheme fit. He's a 240 pound 3-4 OLB and he'll need to gain weight there, much less in a 4-3. And honestly, I question 240 because he looks 225 (Monty Rice is 235 and makes him look much thinner). He isn't going to hold up, primarily facing 325-pound RTs.

I'd probably take Joe Tryon, Ronnie Perkins, Ellerson Smith (very underrated), and Patrick Jones all ahead of Oweh. I'm not saying Oweh is bad, he's anything but bad, but he needs some growth and refinement in the NFL and I don't really see that pass rush I see from those others. Jones is a guy that isn't worth a 1st either, he's gotta get stronger too.

Radunz, I think he can start right away, even if he's giving up a bit to power. That said, he's going to need to get a lot stronger, much like Fisher did coming out of a small school. I would be equally concerned with taking him at 32, but he's not going to be there at 64 I'd have to guess. I'm not dismissing Walker Little in the 2nd but I doubt he's there in 3, as many boards have him, because of the volume of teams that need help at both OT spots. Another guy I'd keep an eye on is Royce Newman from Ole Miss. He really helped himself at the Senior Bowl, in my opinion. He looked solid at LT and has some athleticism, plus he can play any position on the line.

Bateman is criminally underrated. I really like him a ton and feel like if KC is going to go WR in 1 then he's probably going to be the guy sitting there with the most talent. In terms of a pure X that KC needs, he's as good of a fit as you'll get in this draft.

Overall, I think we're going to see a very similar draft to last year where 4 QBs, 6 OTs, and 5 WRs went in round 1 and, as a result, some of these pass rushers that are fringe 1s at best are going to slide deeper into round 2. So, I think htismage could be onto something with the OTs that'll be available to us. It could be a situation where the Chiefs will either have to hope a guy like Little is there in 2 or trade up in 1 if they want an OT. I think they can stand pat for any other position, but they aren't likely to get the board favorites.

[O.city]

Mahomes has just always seemed to play his beat football (would guess stats back it up) when Schwartz and Fisher are on the field. I think a couple good tackles are really important to this offense

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by kccrow

I pretty much never see Toney or Marshall on the board at 32 unless its some fluke. Most of the time both are gone no later than 25. Reality tells me there is a slim chance either are there.

Agree.

Originally Posted by kccrow

Phillips is a guy I would absolutely not consider at 32 with his concussion history, sorry. Just too many at UCLA for my liking. If he falls rather far, sure, but not in the 1st and probably not in the 2nd.

Agree.

Originally Posted by kccrow

Ojulari isn't a scheme fit. He's a 240 pound 3-4 OLB and he'll need to gain weight there, much less in a 4-3. And honestly, I question 240 because he looks 225 (Monty Rice is 235 and makes him look much thinner). He isn't going to hold up, primarily facing 325-pound RTs.

Agree.

Originally Posted by kccrow

Bateman is criminally underrated. I really like him a ton and feel like if KC is going to go WR in 1 then he's probably going to be the guy sitting there with the most talent. In terms of a pure X that KC needs, he's as good of a fit as you'll get in this draft.

You think he'll be there?

[staylor26]

I agree that Toney is very unlikely, but there are enough people who have Marshall outside of the top 32 for me to at least think it’s legitimately possible that he makes it to our pick. I think at best only one of Bateman, Toney, or Marshall make it there just a matter of which. If they’re all gone, that probably means a T or DE slips.

I know there’s some risk with Phillips, but that’s why you’re getting a top 15 talent that late in the 1st. The injuries/concussions were not an issue this season, and he really does seem to be through all of that. If he stays healthy, I think he’ll end up being the best edge rusher in this entire class.

I also question the fit with Ojulari, which is why Phillips and Oweh are both higher on my board. He’s just an excellent pass rusher and in today’s NFL when you’re in subs 70% of the time, I’d like to think Spags can make it work.

Oweh’s upside is through the roof. He’s just scratching the surface of what he can be. No way I’m taking any of those guys over him, even though I like all of them (even Smith who I agree is a nice sleeper).

[staylor26]

Side note:

This is going to be a crazy draft with no combine and no real consensus.

Guys are all over the place in their rankings and there’s no way to know how things will actually play out, in particular after the top 20. That’s why I’m not completely giving up on one of the WR’s falling.

[Stryker]

Originally Posted by Chris Meck

WHA?

Respectfully, we would never be The Colts.

Also, we're loaded with weapons, and the likelihood that we'll just stop looking at offensive weapons is nil.

Worrying about 3 to 4 years down the road when you have glaring deficiencies makes no sense.

It would seem, based on the mocks I'm seeing and draft grades that this class of OT's is talented and deep; and it's possible to get a day one starter perhaps as late the end of the second/top of the third.

It seems to be a very deep WR class too; and honestly, I see not all that much space between the first rounders and the third and fourth rounders. At any rate, zero chance any drafted WR starts in year one in this offense. ZERO. It ain't happening. He'd have some play packages, just like Reid does with all of his new toys until they have digested enough to play the whole offense. That doesn't generally happen until year 2 at the earliest. I also don't expect there to be a huge problem bringing either Robinson or Pringle back, it's not like they're going to get huge offers. And they should bring one back, and they should still draft at least a middle round talent to groom.

DE is also a need, and is an area where I DO see some drop-off once you get into the middle rounds. Still, some guys may fall, but I feel like you won't get a 'difference maker' type beyond round two. You can get some solid players later, though.

He does have a valid point. I think we will be ok. Remember, Veach is running the show.

[kccrow]

I think Bateman or Marshall are the most likely top receivers to have a chance to fall.
It will more than likely come down to workout results, whatever workouts there may be.

[CatfishBob2]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

But not valuable.

There's no reason to take any one of several positions either because they have little positional value or they don't have the depth of prospects.

The Chiefs would be smart to take a DE, DB, WR, or OT with the 32nd pick. Those are the positions that have both depth and positional value.

OG has some depth but less positional value. DT has positional value but little depth. LB has neither.

I don't completely disagree with you. It's likely that all the players mentioned in this thread won't be there by the time we pick. I'm just saying I wouldn't be like "Wtf?! He better be good!" If we selected any position at 32 (except RB even though I would like to get one in this draft). Hell 32 is basically a second Rd pick. I think you're OVERVALUING it a little bit. Its more of a BPA than team needs spot cause at 32 your lucky if a player falls to you that meets both criteria

Not to mention this team will be coming off two Super Bowls with key players locked up and tons of solid contributors. Just pick the best players and keep rolling. It doesn't have to be an exact science this year. I personally can't wait

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by CatfishBob2

I don't completely disagree with you. It's likely that all the players mentioned in this thread won't be there by the time we pick. I'm just saying I wouldn't be like "Wtf?! He better be good!" If we selected any position at 32 (except RB even though I would like to get one in this draft). Hell 32 is basically a second Rd pick. I think you're OVERVALUING it a little bit. Its more of a BPA than team needs spot cause at 32 your lucky if a player falls to you that meets both criteria

Not to mention this team will be coming off two Super Bowls with key players locked up and tons of solid contributors. Just pick the best players and keep rolling. It doesn't have to be an exact science this year. I personally can't wait

Well, for one, a 1st round pick - even #32 - comes with 5 years of control rather than 4. That's an important thing if you should happen to find a big time player.

Second, we don't have key players locked up. More than half of the offensive line, starters and backups, are free agents either this year or next. He have 2 WR's in the top 4 that are FA's this year. Breeland will be a FA. The entire right end of the defensive line is comprised of guys who will be FA's. Not all key players are locked up.

[CatfishBob2]

We have solid contributors but some question marks at those spots.... You just illustrated why I wouldn't be disappointed at any position being the first pick...... Don't misunderstand me.... OL and DE is a huge need that should be the first place addressed. My point, as a whole, is that out roster has been developed so well I think we'll be fine if we dont follow the NFL Draft Bible to a T this year.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by CatfishBob2

We have solid contributors but some question marks at those spots.... You just illustrated why I wouldn't be disappointed at any position being the first pick...... Don't misunderstand me.... OL and DE is a huge need that should be the first place addressed. My point, as a whole, is that out roster has been developed so well I think we'll be fine if we dont follow the NFL Draft Bible to a T this year.

The roster actually has some significant holes.

I'm not really understanding where you're coming from unless you're saying you just don't care.

Taking a RB, OG, or LB in the first round, as examples, would be a terrible waste of draft resources. We'd be throwing away value at positions that don't even really have needs.

It's not about being scripted or predictable. It's about maximizing the resources you have.

[CatfishBob2]

I'm basically saying that if the OT or DE that we want isn't there at 32 I would be fine with any position except QB and RB. And outside of that this draft could go in any direction because of the question marks you mention