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Old 11-21-2021, 07:21 PM  
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How good are the Chiefs chances at the AFC's #1 seed?
Updated: 12/19

Teams that actually matter in this conversation:

Kansas City (10-4) (vs PIT, at CIN, at DEN)

New England (9-5) (vs BUF, vs JAC, at MIA)

Tennessee (9-5) (vs SF, vs MIA, at HOU)

Baltimore (8-5) (vs GB, at CIN, vs LAR, vs PIT)

Buffalo (8-6) (at NE, vs ATL, vs NYJ)

Indianapolis (8-6) (at ARI, vs LV, at JAC)

LA Chargers (8-6) (at HOU, vs DEN, at LV)

---

Being 1 game back with six games to play seems incredibly generous given our shitty tiebreaker situation. I'll put our odds at 99.9999999%
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Old 12-08-2021, 09:51 AM   #376
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Originally Posted by Hammock Parties View Post
I'm referring to Football Outsiders. That place has usually been rock solid with these types of rankings because they are not as subjective.
Does FO have New England more than twice as likely to win it all as everybody else? Because that's absurd.
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Old 12-08-2021, 09:53 AM   #377
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Originally Posted by htismaqe View Post
Does FO have New England more than twice as likely to win it all as everybody else? Because that's absurd.
Yes. If you don't like math take it up with the universe.
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Old 12-08-2021, 09:54 AM   #378
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I expect NE to lose to Indy.
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Old 12-08-2021, 09:55 AM   #379
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The pure math systems really like the Patriots as well. DVOA has NE as the #11 offense, the #2 defense, and the #4 special teams, good for #2 overall on the year.

Looking at the last 10 games, the Patriots are far and away the best team using DVOA.

Not saying I agree that's the case in reality, but the numbers like the Pats, especially right now.
For sure, the numbers should favor them, especially DVOA.

That being said, does that give them more than double the chance of winning a championship as the Packers, Cards, Chiefs, Ravens, or any other team out there?

**** no. That's just dumb.
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Old 12-08-2021, 09:56 AM   #380
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Yes. If you don't like math take it up with the universe.
There's things the "math" doesn't take into account. Like the fact that the Patriots have a rookie QB who has never taken a snap in the NFL playoffs.
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Old 12-08-2021, 09:57 AM   #381
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I expect NE to lose to Indy.
And then Indy will get a 35% chance to win it all.
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Old 12-08-2021, 09:57 AM   #382
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NE is a good story for the media but I'm not buying it.
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Old 12-08-2021, 09:58 AM   #383
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Originally Posted by htismaqe View Post
And then Indy will get a 35% chance to win it all.
As I said earlier, Indy is a far scarier add if they get in then NE.
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Old 12-08-2021, 10:00 AM   #384
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As I said earlier, Indy is a far scarier add if they get in then NE.
They still have Carson Wentz at QB. You never know which guy is going to show up any given week. Their running game is formidable but that alone isn't going to propel them to a SB anymore than it will NE.
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Old 12-08-2021, 10:01 AM   #385
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Originally Posted by htismaqe View Post
There's things the "math" doesn't take into account. Like the fact that the Patriots have a rookie QB who has never taken a snap in the NFL playoffs.
I think it does, though. Mac is 15th in DYAR and DVOA for QBs.

That means the rest of the team is so strong they can overcome a mediocre QB.
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Old 12-08-2021, 10:02 AM   #386
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I think it does, though. Mac is 15th in DYAR and DVOA for QBs.

That means the rest of the team is so strong they can overcome a mediocre QB.
Possibly but I have to see it happen first before I'm gonna crown him. The playoffs are an entirely different animal and running game + defense has definite shortcomings, as Chiefs fans well know.
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Old 12-08-2021, 10:04 AM   #387
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I expect NE to lose to Indy.
And Buffalo the second time they play. I fully expected them and Buffalo to split their games.
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Old 12-08-2021, 10:05 AM   #388
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A strong team with a QB that has to be carried by said team.

I can't quite put my finger on it, but I do believe I've watched that movie before.

Didn't care for the end.
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Old 12-08-2021, 10:05 AM   #389
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I mean part of the reason Jones is sitting at about the league average in terms of analytics is because he hasn't turned the ball over a lot, which stands to reason because he hasn't been given a ton of opportunities to do so.

That is likely to change in the playoffs, when they'll have to be more diversified on offense, thus increasing his chances of making a rookie mistake or two.
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Old 12-08-2021, 10:06 AM   #390
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Jones won't beat Mahomes. But Belichick might.
No he won't. He never has. The two times KC lost to NE in the Mahomes era was because the KC defense played like garbage. Belichick has never been able to shut down Mahomes for an entire game.
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