***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[RINGLEADER]

Originally Posted by Donger

I wonder if we'll hit the 100,000 daily cases that Fauci warned about. Let's hope not.

I think we will.

In Los Angeles there is about a 50/50 rate of wearing masks. Everything is supposed to be shut down but most restaurants and other places of business are open. It doesn’t surprise me at all that there’s a spike.

Maybe people were tired of the lockdown. Maybe they saw the protests and figured it was okay to come out.

Anyway, I think more younger people are obviously contracting it and that’s going to bring the death rate down but you’re still going to see a lot of people getting it and a lot of people dying unless they really lock down again which I doubt happens.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by RINGLEADER

I think we will.

In Los Angeles there is about a 50/50 rate of wearing masks. Everything is supposed to be shut down but most restaurants and other places of business are open. It doesn’t surprise me at all that there’s a spike.

Maybe people were tired of the lockdown. Maybe they saw the protests and figured it was okay to come out.

Anyway, I think more younger people are obviously contracting it and that’s going to bring the death rate down but you’re still going to see a lot of people getting it and a lot of people dying unless they really lock down again which I doubt happens.

There are a lot of reasons for people not following the "orders". But I have to defend these people who own or work in small businesses that are told "too bad you're shut down now go figure out another way to pay your rent and feed your family".

I believe Dane said his hair stylist is supposedly shut down but the rent is still due. How do you expect someone to go along with that?

[sedated]

Originally Posted by Baby Lee

Now that is a solid source!!

I'm curious if this is sarcasm

[Baby Lee]

Originally Posted by sedated

I'm curious if this is sarcasm

Hi, Baby Lee. . . nice to meet'cha.

Which is to say, no.

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by petegz28

There are a lot of reasons for people not following the "orders". But I have to defend these people who own or work in small businesses that are told "too bad you're shut down now go figure out another way to pay your rent and feed your family".

I believe Dane said his hair stylist is supposedly shut down but the rent is still due. How do you expect someone to go along with that?

You don't have a right to provide for yourself.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

You don't have a right to provide for yourself.

Apparently not.....

[Pants]

Originally Posted by DaFace

I guess that's interesting, but it's unclear to me what the mechanism is supposed to be that would cause that. If it's that people stop obeying social distancing rules after a while, I guess that makes sense. I'm just not sure what the policy implications are when they don't really explain why they think it's happening.

I read the article. It's actually pretty interesting and addresses "social distancing only" and the diminishing returns. It was summarized in the end with this analogy:

“Bending the curve using social distancing alone is analogous to slowing down the front of a raging wildfire without extinguishing the glowing embers,” said Chakrabarty, whose other line of research focuses on the impacts of wildfires on climate and health.

“They are waiting to start their own fires once the wind carries them away.”

The article is not at all saying there's no merit to social distancing, however, which is how I envision certain people thinking when they see the title.

[dirk digler]

Crazy how contagious Covid is.

Rams offensive tackle Andrew Whitworth announced on an NFLPA conference call Friday that he was one.

Whitworth shared his story in hopes of showing how quickly the virus can spread and how it “innocently” can be passed on to older, higher-risk individuals.

“I think for us to really identify when we say you’re going to have to make safe decisions, and you’re going to have to be safe outside the building, we’re talking about things as simple as going to lunch with someone,”

Whitworth said. “All it takes is one exposure. That’s the reality. My story is an example of that. We had a family member that simply just went to lunch with a friend as innocent as it can be. A couple of days later we were traveling all together, and she started not feeling well and decided to go get a test. The next thing we know she had it. A couple of days later, my wife and I had it. A couple of days after that, our kids had it. So we were about seven for seven at that point, and unfortunately, we had just visited my wife’s family and were traveling with them as well and her mom and dad both got it.”

Whitworth’s father-in-law needed hospitalization, leaving Whitworth and the rest of the family shaken for a few days.

“We got him home four or five days ago, and he’s home now,” Whitworth said. “We’re very blessed to have him and him be OK. But it was definitely a scary thing and a realization of how contagious this really is. It doesn’t take much, and it can spread like wildfire.

“For us, it affected us personally. It was scary. For our family and our kids, we ended up OK, and everything seemed to go pretty normal, a pretty mild case. But for her parents, it wasn’t that way.”

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

I never said anything about a "year long battle" nor did I mention Italy or any other country.

The United States isn't Italy or any other country for that matter.

The US caseload is breaking records every day, so how can any one be optimistic about this virus dying out?

Funny how everyone used Italy and other counties as examples of what the US is going to turn into and now its "the US isn't Italy".

Is NY still climbing? Is Washington state still climbing where the first outbreak occurred? Is anywhere they had an initial outbreak still climbing or even near their peak levels?

The places seeing spikes are the places that haven't been through it yet.

SW Missouri was a hot bed 2 weeks ago and made national news, its steady declining. We have gone from 28 active cases at work to 1 in the last 2 weeks.

I don't understand why people don't believe this thing is simply running its course to some extent. Yea we can mitigate to a degree and for the most part we are with masks and social distancing.

Seems this was the whole point of flattening the curve, the numbers under the flattened curve don't shrink, its just spread out.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

Crazy how contagious Covid is.

Meanwhile today we just had yet another employee released to work who tested negative after their spouse was positive.

I swear its like there are 2 different bugs.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

The places seeing spikes are the places that haven't been through it yet.

SW Missouri was a hot bed 2 weeks ago and made national news, its steady declining. We have gone from 28 active cases at work to 1 in the last 2 weeks.

.

I've actually pondered on this about NW Missouri. We had the big Triumph outbreak in May, and had an assisted living facility get hit hard recently, but our overall trend is very much down. Our R0 is well below 1. Our hospitalizations are steady. Did w we already go through the storm without realizing it? Or are we just on a lucky streak?

[O.city]

The fact that there are some that are in close quarters with others but don't get it to me, says something about there being some immunity.

[phisherman]

https://www.cerner.com/covid-19/predictive-models

Some interesting models done by Cerner. Says bed peaks are past for both Johnson County, KS and for Jackson County, MO.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by TLO

I've actually pondered on this about NW Missouri. We had the big Triumph outbreak in May, and had an assisted living facility get hit hard recently, but our overall trend is very much down. Our R0 is well below 1. Our hospitalizations are steady. Did w we already go through the storm without realizing it? Or are we just on a lucky streak?

JoCo has seen a big rise in cases but it is not translating into hospitalizations or deaths. They won't say where they care coming from but I do know there have been some outbreaks at care facilities. There have also been some high school students test positive but again it doesn't appear like these are translating into anything at the moment.

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

Funny how everyone used Italy and other counties as examples of what the US is going to turn into and now its "the US isn't Italy".

Is NY still climbing? Is Washington state still climbing where the first outbreak occurred? Is anywhere they had an initial outbreak still climbing or even near their peak levels?

Whataboutism? Lame, as expected.

Originally Posted by Marcellus

I don't understand why people don't believe this thing is simply running its course to some extent.

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and it's because the US continues to break the number of COVID infections each day with, 77,255 yesterday alone.

That number does not indicate that it's "running its course".

Originally Posted by Marcellus

Seems this was the whole point of flattening the curve, the numbers under the flattened curve don't shrink, its just spread out.

In Texas and Arizona, morgues are filling up and officials are bringing in refrigerated trailers to store bodies so it's definitely spreading while continuing to hospitalize and kill people across the nation.