***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

Whataboutism? Lame, as expected.



I'm gonna go out on a limb here and it's because the US continues to break the number of COVID infections each day with 77,255 yesterday alone.

That number does not indicate that it's "running its course".





In Texas and Arizona, morgues are filling up and officials are bringing in refrigerated trailers to store bodies so it's definitely spreading while continuing to hospitalize and kill people across the nation.

Goddamn Dane that was great job of -

A. Completely missing the point
B. Not disputing a damn thing I said.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by O.city

The fact that there are some that are in close quarters with others but don't get it to me, says something about there being some immunity.

Meat packing plants, LTC facilities, etc.

I agree there has to be some level of immunity at play.

[Marcellus]

The US is different because we have way more people.

Why does the US have so many more cases!!

[Marcellus]

Have a good weekend fellas, I am done with topic for the weekend.

[TJW]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

Is anywhere they had an initial outbreak still climbing or even near their peak levels?

The places seeing spikes are the places that haven't been through it yet. .

Louisiana seems like the lone exception

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

Seems this was the whole point of flattening the curve, the numbers under the flattened curve don't shrink, its just spread out.

No, that's not accurate.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by phisherman

https://www.cerner.com/covid-19/predictive-models

Some interesting models done by Cerner. Says bed peaks are past for both Johnson County, KS and for Jackson County, MO.

In Kanas there is a total of 1,020 ICU beds. 451 of them are used for all cases. 58 are used for Covid. 56% of ICU beds are available.

879 Ventilators total
109 ventilators used on on all patients
14 ventilators used on Covid


That's out of 151 hospitals reporting

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by Donger

No, that's not accurate.

Unsurprising, as nothing he says is "accurate".

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

Funny how everyone used Italy and other counties as examples of what the US is going to turn into and now its "the US isn't Italy".

Is NY still climbing? Is Washington state still climbing where the first outbreak occurred? Is anywhere they had an initial outbreak still climbing or even near their peak levels?

The places seeing spikes are the places that haven't been through it yet.

SW Missouri was a hot bed 2 weeks ago and made national news, its steady declining. We have gone from 28 active cases at work to 1 in the last 2 weeks.

I don't understand why people don't believe this thing is simply running its course to some extent. Yea we can mitigate to a degree and for the most part we are with masks and social distancing.

Seems this was the whole point of flattening the curve, the numbers under the flattened curve don't shrink, its just spread out.

Now you know there are some that are going to argue that is not true. Not saying Dane is one of them but there are people convinced that flattening the curve meant something else no matter how many quotes from experts you give them.

[petegz28]

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

Goddamn Dane that was great job of -

A. Completely missing the point
B. Not disputing a damn thing I said.

You're truly a stubborn, close-minded, myopic moron.

The US is setting new records for infections each and every day, so go ahead and prove to us that it's "running its course".

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

Funny how everyone used Italy and other counties as examples of what the US is going to turn into and now its "the US isn't Italy".

Is NY still climbing? Is Washington state still climbing where the first outbreak occurred? Is anywhere they had an initial outbreak still climbing or even near their peak levels?

The places seeing spikes are the places that haven't been through it yet.

SW Missouri was a hot bed 2 weeks ago and made national news, its steady declining. We have gone from 28 active cases at work to 1 in the last 2 weeks.

I don't understand why people don't believe this thing is simply running its course to some extent. Yea we can mitigate to a degree and for the most part we are with masks and social distancing.

Seems this was the whole point of flattening the curve, the numbers under the flattened curve don't shrink, its just spread out.

I don't believe it is running it's course because the states that are hot now all had hundreds of cases at the same time as NY and NJ. Those 2 states exploded while now 4 months later now Florida, AZ, TX and CA are extremely hot.

I do think the virus is "seasonal" in that when weather\temps force people inside this virus explodes. So when winter comes, watch out.

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by petegz28

In Kanas there is a total of 1,020 ICU beds. 451 of them are used for all cases. 58 are used for Covid. 56% of ICU beds are available.

879 Ventilators total
109 ventilators used on on all patients
14 ventilators used on Covid


That's out of 151 hospitals reporting

Your state isn't densely packed so it's good to see that the numbers aren't exploding as they are in more densely populated areas.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Now you know there are some that are going to argue that is not true. Not saying Dane is one of them but there are people convinced that flattening the curve meant something else no matter how many quotes from experts you give them.

There isn't any argument. And here's a quote from an expert:

“If you look at the curves of outbreaks, they go big peaks, and then come down. What we need to do is flatten that down,” Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told reporters Tuesday. “That would have less people infected. That would ultimately have less deaths. You do that by trying to interfere with the natural flow of the outbreak.”

[Chitownchiefsfan]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

The US is different because we have way more people.

Why does the US have so many more cases!!

And we have the second highest rates per capita. Second only to Sweden.