***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[MahomesMagic]

Originally Posted by Donger

NY locked down on March 22 when the state was seeing about 1,500 new cases/day.

Yes. And that was way too late as the number of actual cases was far higher than what we were detecting.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

Yes. And that was way too late as the number of actual cases was far higher than what we were detecting.

Huh? Too late? You claimed this:

I am in NY and the only way you can stop the virus is very early before it gets going.

New York, after that initial few weeks, has done a great job in stomping this bug so far.

[MahomesMagic]

Originally Posted by Donger

Huh? Too late? You claimed this:

I am in NY and the only way you can stop the virus is very early before it gets going.

New York, after that initial few weeks, has done a great job in stomping this bug so far.

Yes, we did a great job of having no one susceptible left to take out as the virus had its way here.

The curve naturally goes up, peaks, then goes down. NY graph looks the same as the UK or Sweden.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

Yes, we did a great job of having no one susceptible left to take out as the virus had its way here.

The curve naturally goes up, peaks, then goes down. NY graph looks the same as the UK or Sweden.

No, it doesn't.

Sweden is finally driving down cases. Want to guess why?

[Lprechaun]

As bad as the numbers seem to be down here it sure doesnt seem like anyone cares. I still see barely half the people wearing masks. People call my wifes salon and cuss her out because they require a mask and they dont want to wear it.
Im getting to the point where I wear a mask for others but I simply dont sweat the numbers. If I get it I get it.
People have to work, and if people dont take it upon themselves to wear masks than I guess we need to just let it run its course right?
I just dont see any other way at this point. If you think people will run out and get the vaccine in droves you are kidding yourself.
Some will for sure, Ive asked everyone I know if they will get it and its a resounding HELL NO

[MahomesMagic]

Originally Posted by Donger

No, it doesn't.

Sweden is finally driving down cases. Want to guess why?

I don't care about cases. I concur with professor Gupta of Oxford that cases are a function of surveillance and are therefore a poor measure for judging how the virus is acting upon a population.

Lay out the death charts averaged out weekly and NY and Sweden look exactly the same.


Cases chart US: (This one uses current CDC estimate of .65 IFR (even though I think that is far too high). Plugging in with deaths and lag we find the true cases vs reported.

https://twitter.com/Hold2LLC/status/...513920/photo/1

[Donger]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

I don't care about cases. I concur with professor Gupta of Oxford that cases are a function of surveillance and are therefore a poor measure for judging how the virus is acting upon a population.

Lay out the death charts averaged out weekly and NY and Sweden look exactly the same.

Of course you don't and of course you do. You're a herder, right?

[MahomesMagic]

Originally Posted by Donger

Of course you don't and of course you do. You're a herder, right?

Until there is a vaccine population resistance or immunity is the only thing that works. It is what happened in NY. That's how we beat it here.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

Until there is a vaccine population resistance or immunity is the only thing that works. It is what happened in NY. That's how we beat it here.

No, there is no conclusive or convincing evidence that NY experienced herd immunity and that led to their results, let alone in under a month.

As a nation, we saw a decrease in new case growth just with mitigation efforts. And, it's just common sense. This thing is spread by humans.

Do you acknowledge that places that opened up without seeing new case declines are seeing increases?

[TLO]

Originally Posted by Donger

Do you acknowledge that places that opened up without seeing new case declines are seeing increases?

A small sample size here - but I can say that in my county of about 85,000 people we opened as cases were rising and have seen a decline since then.

[MahomesMagic]

Originally Posted by Donger

No, there is no conclusive or convincing evidence that NY experienced herd immunity and that led to their results, let alone in under a month.

As a nation, we saw a decrease in new case growth just with mitigation efforts. And, it's just common sense. This thing is spread by humans.

Do you acknowledge that places that opened up without seeing new case declines are seeing increases?

Detected cases does not equal actual cases. We brought the overall cases down by population resistance. It is pure hubris to believe we can now control nature to the degree that you think we can. We don't stop the common cold or flu. We have some vaccines for flu that we guess on. Sometimes we are right. Sometimes we are wrong.

Yes, if you actually lock people down and then let them resume life and ramp up testing you will detect more cases. No surprise.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

Detected cases does not equal actual cases. We brought the overall cases down by population resistance. It is pure hubris to believe we can now control nature to the degree that you think we can. We don't stop the common cold or flu. We have some vaccines for flu that we guess on. Sometimes we are right. Sometimes we are wrong.

Yes, if you actually lock people down and then let them resume life and ramp up testing you will detect more cases. No surprise.

Positive tests equal actual cases.

Good, I'm glad that you acknowledge that. If you look at the amount and increase of testing, you will see that new case growth doesn't equal it. Not to mention positivity.

[MahomesMagic]

Originally Posted by Donger

Positive tests equal actual cases.

Good, I'm glad that you acknowledge that. If you look at the amount and increase of testing, you will see that new case growth doesn't equal it. Not to mention positivity.

What you are not following is that the detected cases does not actually tell us how many people have it.

I have never felt sick and have never been tested. Do I have it now? Who knows.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

What you are not following is that the detected cases does not actually tell us how many people have it.

I have never felt sick and have never been tested. Do I have it now? Who knows.

This is why I have ?onger on ignore. He plays these little games. Everyone knew what you mean by "detected cases aren't actual cases" but he must persist in his pedantic ways.

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

What you are not following is that the detected cases does not actually tell us how many people have it.

I have never felt sick and have never been tested. Do I have it now? Who knows.

This is why people have been encouraged to get tested, even if they don't have any symptoms.

Hell, my wife got tested again today because she's taken the kids to the beach a few times this week, even though she doesn't have any symptoms.

Creating data points is very helpful to the doctors and scientists that are studying this virus.