***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[MahomesMagic]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

This is why people have been encouraged to get tested, even if they don't have any symptoms.

Hell, my wife got tested again today because she's taken the kids to the beach a few times this week, even though she doesn't have any symptoms.

Creating data points is very helpful to the doctors and scientists that are studying this virus.

In a perfect world that would be great. Unfortunately in the world we exist in if enough of us go get tested and are positive we can then create an "outbreak" and face consequences to our lives and businesses. If I had faith these numbers would be used wisely then I would agree with you.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

What you are not following is that the detected cases does not actually tell us how many people have it.

I have never felt sick and have never been tested. Do I have it now? Who knows.

I'm aware of that. I'm find with the 10 x confirmed estimate. But confirmed (tested positive) cases are important.

Yet, you stated this:

I don't care about cases.

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

In a perfect world that would be great. Unfortunately in the world we exist in if enough of us go get tested and are positive we can then create an "outbreak" and face consequences to our lives and businesses. If I had faith these numbers would be used wisely then I would agree with you.

Don't test? Who cares! Test? More cases!

[MahomesMagic]

Originally Posted by Donger

I'm aware of that. I'm find with the 10 x confirmed estimate. But confirmed (tested positive) cases are important.

Yet, you stated this:

I don't care about cases.

Yes, I don't care about cases. We can't use them to determine whether the virus is growing or retreating so for that reason they are less than useless.

[MahomesMagic]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

Don't test? Who cares! Test? More cases!

Only test I would agree to now would be antibody test. Because those would be used by people that know what they are doing.

The PCR tests don't illuminate.

[BWillie]

I like how two months ago people were talking about Sweden and how we should do what they were doing because it wasn't very stringent. Welp. They have more deaths per capita than we do.

I think that's a good example of what not to do.

[MahomesMagic]

Originally Posted by BWillie

I like how two months ago people were talking about Sweden and how we should do what they were doing because it wasn't very stringent. Welp. They have more deaths per capita than we do.

I think that's a good example of what not to do.

I think Sweden showed that the Emperor has no clothes.

They brought R below 1 with no business closures, school closures or masks.

The two things they did wrong were protection of nursing homes where 73% of their deaths happened and they coded deaths too liberally so that everyone who died with Covid was counted. I would count those differently and then you have almost the perfect strategy.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Strongside

Is there a running count or list of CP members who have contracted?

Originally Posted by BWillie

I like how two months ago people were talking about Sweden and how we should do what they were doing because it wasn't very stringent. Welp. They have more deaths per capita than we do.

I think that's a good example of what not to do.

However their daily deaths seem to be rather low now. They had 10 today. I don't know if what they did was right or wrong but there is some logic to taking it on the chin once than taking a body blow over and over and over.

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by petegz28

However their daily deaths seem to be rather low now. They had 10 today. I don't know if what they did was right or wrong but there is some logic to taking it on the chin once than taking a body blow over and over and over.

But Sweden is a completely different country altogether.

They don't have the same amount ethnic diversity nor do they have extreme poverty. They also have a healthcare system for all (not trying to argue policy, just stating facts).

It's a very, very, very different country than the United States.

[MahomesMagic]

Originally Posted by petegz28

However their daily deaths seem to be rather low now. They had 10 today. I don't know if what they did was right or wrong but there is some logic to taking it on the chin once than taking a body blow over and over and over.

They also will not have deaths from lockdown. It's only a guess right now but I am seeing some people state US lockdown policies have already killed 30,000 to 50,000 people. If we keep up the zero cases experiment we could well end up killing more than 100,000 here.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

Yes, I don't care about cases. We can't use them to determine whether the virus is growing or retreating so for that reason they are less than useless.

Of course we can. Do you deny that new cases are presently increasing in the United States overall? If you're attempting to argue that we are only seeing new cases growth because we've increased testing to match, I can prove that wrong easily.

And, we can also look at the positivity in the areas which are seeing increases as confirmation, not that it's needed.

[MahomesMagic]

Originally Posted by Donger

Of course we can. Do you deny that new cases are presently increasing in the United States overall? If you're attempting to argue that we are only seeing new cases growth because we've increased testing to match, I can prove that wrong easily.

And, we can also look at the positivity in the areas which are seeing increases as confirmation, not that it's needed.

I think there is real growth in the Sun Belt states. Increased testing also plays a big part. It's hard to know about % positivity when certain places in Florida are reporting 100% positive cases.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

But Sweden is a completely different country altogether.

They don't have the same amount ethnic diversity nor do they have extreme poverty. They also have a healthcare system for all (not trying to argue policy, just stating facts).

It's a very, very, very different country than the United States.

It's not accurate to say that Sweden took no mitigation efforts. And, they are now applying those efforts to a greater extent than their neighbors. Guess what happened?

Things began to improve.

That's one of the things that is maddening about this. It's spread by people. People not interacting as much and/or being masked has been SHOWN to drive the R0 down.

Yet, some people attempt to argue against those facts. I get it: they have an agenda. But to ignore facts because you don't like them is asinine.

[jdubya]

Did I just read that Sweden is a different country than the United States? And all these years I thought........

Mind=Blown

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by Donger

Yet, some people attempt to argue against those facts. I get it: they have an agenda. But to ignore facts because you don't like them is asinine.

Agreed.

We're almost back to a complete lockdown here so it'll be interesting to see when the number of cases begin to descend.