***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[suzzer99]

Originally Posted by lewdog

I’ll admit it, same thing here. It’s very noticeable. Still having large gatherings all the time. Hispanic Coworker here had her family throw a massive family gathering in May. 50 people, all family, and 19 of them got COVID from it and a few of the grandparents died.

Most here wear masks in public I find, but they have a hard time social distancing from their family they don’t live with. Relates to socioeconomic status and education IMO.

Similar story in LA. I'm in a hiking group that's mostly Hispanic. The people I know from the group seem pretty responsible and mask up around other people. They definitely take the virus seriously.

But they're just so family-oriented. Most of them couldn't imagine life w/o being able to see your extended family for a month, much less a year. They'd rather just take their chances.

[loochy]

Originally Posted by SAUTO

Anyone thinking those death numbers aren't going to continue to grow are fooling themselves...

Of course they are. It's not like it's Jesus catching corona.

[KCrockaholic]

So I decided to do something with some numbers which we know are overinflated and not 100% accurate as is. But i used what was given to me based on worldometers USA coronavirus numbers.

I wanted to see what the US death rate would be if we removed the anomalies of NY and NJ which are far and away higher than the rest of the country.

So after removing those states you divide 3,452,310 (cases) by 97,197 (reported deaths) and this gives you a 2.8% death rate. But I also wanted to see the death rate of people under 65 years old, considering we know that roughly 80% of the deaths are the elderly over 65+. You take 20% of 2.8% and that gives you a death rate of 0.56% for anyone under 65. And of course as you lower the age your percentage would go down further. Just some interesting numbers I found earlier.

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by loochy

Of course they are. It's not like it's Jesus catching corona.

How old is jesus?

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by KCrockaholic

So I decided to do something with some numbers which we know are overinflated and not 100% accurate as is. But i used what was given to me based on worldometers USA coronavirus numbers.

I wanted to see what the US death rate would be if we removed the anomalies of NY and NJ which are far and away higher than the rest of the country.

So after removing those states you divide 3,452,310 (cases) by 97,197 (reported deaths) and this gives you a 2.8% death rate. But I also wanted to see the death rate of people under 65 years old, considering we know that roughly 80% of the deaths are the elderly over 65+. You take 20% of 2.8% and that gives you a death rate of 0.56% for anyone under 65. And of course as you lower the age your percentage would go down further. Just some interesting numbers I found earlier.

Far and away higher than the rest of the country at this point...

[KCrockaholic]

Originally Posted by SAUTO

Far and away higher than the rest of the country at this point...

Even if we take the numbers from today or yesterday the death % is 1.8% which in my under 65 study equates to 0.36% so if anything although yes the case numbers are up (which includes a mixture of untested probably cases) the death rate is down quite a bit from original thoughts back in March or April.
This would actually make pneumonia much deadlier on death scale, pneumonia just isn't as spreadable apparently considering about 50k die each year from it in the US.

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by KCrockaholic

So I decided to do something with some numbers which we know are overinflated and not 100% accurate as is.

Based on which "news" source?

[KCrockaholic]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

Based on which "news" source?

The sources across the board that have admitted multiple false tests and considering the definition of both cases and deaths was changed mid-pandemic we can only take the numbers in put in front of us with a grain of salt considering there's been a lot of misinformation.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by KCrockaholic

Even if we take the numbers from today or yesterday the death % is 1.8% which in my under 65 study equates to 0.36% so if anything although yes the case numbers are up (which includes a mixture of untested probably cases) the death rate is down quite a bit from original thoughts back in March or April.
This would actually make pneumonia much deadlier on death scale, pneumonia just isn't as spreadable apparently considering about 50k die each year from it in the US.

There's a reason why the calculations are much more complicated than this.

[O.city]

Arizona looking better and Texas and Florida appear to be plateauing but now other states are starting to potentially take off

Just not good

[Bob Dole]

Originally Posted by SAUTO

Anyone thinking those death numbers aren't going to continue to grow are fooling themselves...

We're probably going to be around 2k a day by next week by the looks of things.

I fully expected total deaths to shrink as we moved through time.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by O.city

Arizona looking better and Texas and Florida appear to be plateauing but now other states are starting to potentially take off

Just not good

Who's taking off?

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by KCrockaholic

The sources across the board that have admitted multiple false tests and considering the definition of both cases and deaths was changed mid-pandemic we can only take the numbers in put in front of us with a grain of salt considering there's been a lot of misinformation.

There are also many scientists that believe that the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths are far, far below the number reported to date.

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by O.city

Arizona looking better and Texas and Florida appear to be plateauing but now other states are starting to potentially take off

Just not good

Here in California, the number of new cases has consistently been above 10,000 per day for quite a while.

I can't even imagine how bad it would be in September had the governor not ordered online-schooling for the foreseeable future.

[jdubya]

Originally Posted by KCrockaholic

So I decided to do something with some numbers which we know are overinflated and not 100% accurate as is. But i used what was given to me based on worldometers USA coronavirus numbers.

I wanted to see what the US death rate would be if we removed the anomalies of NY and NJ which are far and away higher than the rest of the country.

So after removing those states you divide 3,452,310 (cases) by 97,197 (reported deaths) and this gives you a 2.8% death rate. But I also wanted to see the death rate of people under 65 years old, considering we know that roughly 80% of the deaths are the elderly over 65+. You take 20% of 2.8% and that gives you a death rate of 0.56% for anyone under 65. And of course as you lower the age your percentage would go down further. Just some interesting numbers I found earlier.

What happens to the numbers if you eliminate Covid deaths from pts from nursing homes/convalescent hospitals?